Part 2: The Merchant Loyalty Industrial Complex Collapse  

fsim.ca/docs/Credit_cards_Part_2v4.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Since November 2, 2021, Loyalty Ventures Inc.'s (Airmiles) market cap has decreased from $861.42M to $2.11M, a decrease of -99.75%. This compares closely to 2018, when Aimia sold Aeroplan back to Air Canada and partners TD and CIBC for $238 million. For reference, in 2005 Aeroplan launched an IPO valuing it at $2 billion. Related to Aimia’s downfall, it had also previously sold the UK Nectar program to Sainsburys for $120 million, $580 million lower than it paid for Nectar in 2007.

This report digs under the surface and uncovers why loyalty is going the way of the dodo.

Merchants should not waste time fighting card networks  

fsim.ca/docs/Card_fees_ongoing.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This is part one of a two part assessment of merchant frustration due to high credit card fees. The second part of this report will outline an alternative approach that merchants can consider. An approach that is a win for them and also for the card networks.

The full story of SVB March 12th, 2023  

fsim.ca/docs/SVB_special_report2.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Aggregated news and research related to SVB. Apart from SVB, included in this report is related news with respect to other banks and non-traditional companies looking to add financial services that also appear risky.

March 2023 bank earnings summary  

fsim.ca/docs/bankearningsfriday.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This report provides a snapshot into recent bank earnings and related news as published in fsim.ca reports.

Real estate report: October 30th, 2020  

fsim.ca/docs/Oct30rereportv1.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

The big buzz in real estate recently is Mark Carney being scooped up by Brookfield. This means more juice for riskier borrowers. Brookfield, a huge player in real estate, both residential and commercial, recently bought its remaining shares from Sagen (Genworth MI Canada), which values the company at $3.8 bn.

VersaBank’s New High-Security VPN Proving Especially Valuable During COVID-19 Pandemic  

fsim.ca/docs/TailscaleReleaseMarch30FINAL.pdf

Press Release

2014 FSIM when Bernanke visited Montreal  

fsim.ca/docs/MockBernanke.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Considering Bernanke is hated by the Republicans and hated even more by the Democrats, and is currently under scrutiny for saving AIG but not Lehman, (in hindsight) with respect to issues over solvency vs liquidity, the Montreal lovefest attended by 1,100 people yesterday must have been a welcome respite. Click the link to read the entire 2014 report.

Eisman's big Canadian bank short  

fsim.ca/docs/eisman2.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

I have been reporting on Steve Eisman's short position for quite some time.  As the analyst reaction to Eisman shows (link below), Eisman has taken a lot of heat for shorting Canadian banks. Instead of capitulating, in September 2019 he publicly disclosed the fact that he added Canadian Tire to his position, He explains the rationale for this in a BNN interview late 2019. Essentially, his big concern with respect to banks was non-performing loans in Alberta. He feels Canadian bank CEOs are not prepared for a credit cycle. He specifically referenced ATB (a private bank) in discussing his concerns. Looking at the numbers today, my guess is that he has made off like a bandit.

VersaBank Beta-Testing Its New, High Volume Mortgage Finance App   

fsim.ca/docs/VBCortelMortFinanceAppFeb62020.pdf

Press Release

VersaBank announces it is initiating beta-testing on its newly developed high-volume mortgage software app with the Cortel Group, one of Canada’s largest home and condominium builders. The app, named “Direct Connect”, was designed to facilitate and significantly reduce the lengthy finance approval process typically experienced by home buyers when visiting home and condo pre-construction sales offices.

How and why you need to defend your brand against disruptors  

Mark Sibthorpe

Technology, and being open to opportunities, has preempted transformation in banking. At the top of change are Mint, PayPal and ApplePay; three examples of transformative solutions that are now ubiquitous. On the horizon: Uber and Google, both having recently announced partner based banking services. Further down in the plumbing is Duca Impact Labs, Versabank, and Revolut. This report shows how cost conscious FIs can, not only stay relevant in the face of adversity, but punch well above their weight. All thanks to creative thinking and the ongoing commoditization of technology.

Kick the can(nomics)  

fsim.ca/docs/Kick.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Canada has used consumer debt to provide life support to the economy. This strategy which basically pushed the day of reckoning to the next government was old back in 2014, and now is well past its sell-by-date. Recognizing this, and desperate to keep the economy out of a recession, Trudeau is spending more money now than any government in Canadian history. This report disusses a possible alternative.

ScoreCard Bill Morneau, Canada's Minister of Finance  

fsim.ca/docs/ScoreCardMorneau.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This report is a scorecard I designed in order to rank the performance of the current Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau. I do regular rankings because, otherwise, I cannot measure the performance in a meaningful way. The scoring is based on a variety of metrics as detailed on the ‘score-table’ on page 3. Examples of the criteria and weighting include:

Observations and overview of 2018 NB flood support from government and insurance companies.  

fsim.ca/docs/Observations and overview of 2018 NB flood support from government and insurance companies..pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Flood aftermath is linked to post traumatic stress. Here are some findings from a study conducted by Queensland University following a flood:

"The findings showed that aftermath stress contributed to poor mental health outcomes over and above the flood itself, prior mental health issues and demographic factors," Ms Dixon said.

"Aftermath stress was the strongest predictor of post-traumatic stress symptoms with 75 per cent of people saying the most difficult aspect was the aftermath and dealing with insurance companies," she said.

With this in mind, I felt it was important to understand how New Brunswick flood victims were treated.

Update Argentina: a sign of the times  

fsim.ca/docs/Update Argentina_ a sign of the times.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Argentina is in the news daily because the situation is dire, and may be an indication of further contagion. The most dramatic story that speaks of the a leading cause of its troubles was the recent arrest of the public works secretary, Jose Lopez. June 15th he was caught hiding millions in cash in a monastery. No this is not a plot for a comedy.

Summary of Canada's flood news, 2017 to present  

fsim.ca/docs/Summary-of-flood-news-2017-present.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This report covers flood news in Canada from 2017 to present and highlights the relevent issues for home-owners and the insurance industry.

Banking on Pot  

fsim.ca/docs/c10191_banking-on-pot.pdf

SBS

As states across the US legalize marijuana for both medicinal and recreational purposes, it has fueled a growing industry of marijuana related businesses (MRBs).

Canadian banking industry overview  

Mark Sibthorpe

The industry overview is divided into 5 parts:

Introduction
Small banks
Small medium sized banks
Medium sized banks
Medium large banks

2014 Mobile payments the Apple pay way  

fsim.ca/docs/Mobile_Payments_Apple_Pay_2014.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

With Walmart Pay about to userp Apple Pay, I thought I would share my 2014 book on mobile payments and loyalty. The guilde was written for Merchants that want to understand loyalty, credit, mobile payments and Apple Pay, but anyone involved with credit and loyalty might find it useful.
The book is a prelude to Walmart leaving MCX, and chronicles the evolution that led to Walmart Pay. There is an extensive case study of Walmart that looks into its efforts to become an ILC and to avoid paying credit card transaction fees ('merchant discount').
It offers readers a step-by-step methodology for evaluating and transforming credit and loyalty programs. The strategies are based on proven examples and industry facts. The Nectar, Target, Canadian Tire and Walmart case studies are examples of the practical approach I have taken, written with the intent that merchants can use them as blueprints for their own initiatives. 

Death to bitcoin, long live the blockchain   (See full report)

Mark Sibthorpe

Jamie Dimon calls bitcoin a fraud used by criminals, yet he has jumped into the blockchain with both feet.

TD bank industry conduct  

fsim.ca/docs/tdind2.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

TD’s share price recently collapsed by $7 bn in one day due to CBC’s allegations of aggressive selling tactics. A huge fall from a bank that was trading at a premium as recently as January. This was even before the most recent allegation of TD attempting to avoid paying taxes on advertising.
This report chronicles the events leading up to the collapse, shows TD's performance, analyses other related issues.

Book review: Back from the Brink  

fsim.ca/docs/backbrink.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This is a book review of the book Back from the Brink by Paul Halpern, Caroline Cakebread, Christopher C. Nicholls and Poonam Puri.

Footnote 151  

fsim.ca/docs/footnote151.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Footnote 151 implies an important regulatory change related to derivative contracts. It means that US Banks will not be required to hold as much capital against commodities. If you want to understand the implications of this regulatory change in more detail, see the enclosed related article detailing the changes. For contextual purposes, I have also included two Rolling Stones Magazines reports from 2010 and 2014 that chronicle the role large US banks have played in manipulating commodities. You might question the credibility of these sources, but rest assured, these reports are based on United States Senate hearings which outline the issues in a 396 page report related to the implied risks. 

Save the Canadian economy now  

fsim.ca/docs/helecopter-money.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Consumer debt spending appears to have insulated Canada from the worst of the credit crisis, but now the alarming magnitude of consumer debt ($1.92-trillion) could exacerbate a day of reckoning.
This report assesses the issues at hand and recommends the solution to get Canada's economy on track.

Reasons financial service companies should consider gamification  

fsim.ca/docs/GamingEventProposal-printsample--en-final.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Gamification of business processes resulted on Mint.com growing to 10 million users within 4 years. This report explains how.

National Bank Special Report  

fsim.ca/docs/NatBSpec.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

According to Bloomberg, National Bank of Canada will take a C$64 million ($48 million) restructuring charge in the fourth quarter and said its investment in Maple Financial Group Inc., which is being probed by German regulators, may be at risk of a “substantial loss.”

Will Canadian banks charge companies for deposits?  

fsim.ca/docs/depgrowthimpact2.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

In light of today’s possible rate cut, this report discusses how a bank rate cut and capital ratio pressure could precipitate negative corporate deposit interest rates in Canada.

Canadian Tire's (CTC) - Canadian Tire Financial Services (CTFS) Scotia deal overview and risk assess  

fsim.ca/docs/ctfsfinal.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Review of the Canadian Tire Financial Services deal with Scotiabank, risks, opportunity and benefits.

Finance minisiter scorecard August 26, 2015  

fsim.ca/docs/Scorejo-August-2015.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This report looks at Joe Oliver, minister of finance’s progress to date, and assigns a grade to his government’s performance to date.

Xtreme Branch  

fsim.ca/docs/xbranch.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Branches are evolving to meet the digital age. This documents tracks the evolution with real-world examples.

Canadian Nudge  

fsim.ca/docs/nudge.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

CWB cause for concern  

fsim.ca/docs/cwbupdate.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

BNTV Overview  

fsim.ca/docs/overviewpdf.pdf

BNTV

BankNews.TV Publishing Corp services overview document:

• Analytics
• Financial services industry monitor (FSIM) industry briefings and developments reports
• Research

Challenger banks not a threat to big banks  

fsim.ca/docs/challenger.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This report looks at Canadian challenger banks (apart from merchant led banks) and explains why they have not threatened larger institutions. It also looks at ways in which these upstarts have achieved success.

Gamification of financial data project  

fsim.ca/docs/GamingEventProposal-printsample--en-final_original.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This document contains details on how BankNews.TV is helping kids learn programming via gamification of financial data.

The impact a rate rise will have for Canadian banks  

fsim.ca/docs/irr-f.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Canadian banks have made money throughout the credit crisis, but this trend may be about to reverse. The rational supporting this prediction is that revenue has grown despite a declining net interest margin (NIM). It has grown in spite of this fact because Canadian debt (loan lease volume) has risen significantly, as shown in chart 2.

FIFA: the new goldenballs  

fsim.ca/docs/goldenballs.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Yesterday, the Attorney General of Switzerland (OAG) opened criminal proceedings related to the FIFA scandal. This report outlines some of the events related to the criminal investigation, with a particular focus on banking.

Scorecard Minister of Finance: JIm Flaherty  

fsim.ca/docs/Scorecard Min Fin Flaherty April 8 2014.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

March 18, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty resigned from cabinet after having endured a difficult year due to health issues. This report looks at his legacy and attempts to grade his government’s performance to date.

Sample RFP for a Loyalty Program  

fsim.ca/docs/sample RFP for a loyalty program.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Merchants extend financial services  

fsim.ca/docs/merchantfs.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Merchant led financial services are growing in importance once again. This is exemplified in the ongoing UK rivalry between ASDA, Sainsbury and Tesco. Together these merchant/financial service companies provide the backstop for three different approaches for merchants looking to extend their financial services.

Hot Money: real-estate  

fsim.ca/docs/hotmoney.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Currency Cheat Sheet: a guide for the rest of us  

fsim.ca/docs/currencycheatsheet.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Riches to Rags? Summary of possible risks for Genworth MI CANADA, INC.  

fsim.ca/docs/gq4risk.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Genworth had its Q4 2014 earnings call. Genworth own about 30% of the mortgage default insurance in Canada. Not surprisingly, the earnings call became focussed on Alberta; and for good reason, with 20% of its outstanding insured mortgage balance in Alberta, sensitivity to the oil shock and how Genworth plan to manage related risks were discussed in detail.

Canadian Western Bank Competitive Forecast  

fsim.ca/docs/cwbf.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Based on historical financial data (see detailed charts pages 5-8), the oil based recession in Alberta, and comparison against two of its peers, this document outlines my observation with respect to CWB’s future performances.

Liquid Canada: the tipping point  

fsim.ca/docs/Liquid.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

This report examines liquidity issues in the Canadian financial service industry.

Bank Fees  

fsim.ca/docs/Bank fees.pdf

Mark Sibthorpe

Recently the CBC and The Globe and Mail both reported on what has been referred to as a consumer “bank fee outcry”. CBC compares banks to cable and phone companies, standing accused of trying to gouge customers with service fees. The backlash appears to have originated in conjunction with the NDP and the Consumers Council of Canada which argues that there is anxiety ‘among consumers about banking fees’.

Cheap Oil Report  

fsim.ca/docs/co2.pdf

Canada's Economy, a strategic solution  

fsim.ca/docs/ces.pdf

Mobile Payments Blueprint: guide to credit and loyalty transformation for merchants  

fsim.ca/docs/booksample.pdf

Guide to system selection  

fsim.ca/docs/gssnow.pdf

Read sample report: Guide to system selection. This sample would normally cost $99 but is available free as a sample. Click here view sample report.

AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK CBDC RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS LONG PATH TO ANY FUTURE DEPLOYMENT

Finextra (2023-12-23)

Operating in a ring-fenced environment and involving a digital currency that is a real claim on the Reserve Bank, 14 pilot projects with a range of industry participants investigated potential CBDC use cases.

INTERAC EXPANDING E-TRANSFER SERVICE, WEALTHSIMPLE TO JOIN

G&M (2023-09-28)

Interac Corp. is broadening the range of financial institutions that can participate in its e-transfer service, with financial services firm Wealthsimple as the first to become a new participant under the expansion.

HARSH REALITY OF ‘HIGHER-FOR-LONGER’ RATES LOOMS OVER U.S. STOCKS

G&M (2023-09-28)

As the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance boosts Treasury yields and slams stocks, some investors are preparing for more pain ahead.

BLACKSTONE PRESIDENT SEES OPPORTUNITY IN TURMOIL

G&M - James Bradshaw (2023-09-28)

If you’re a CEO feeling stressed about debt, the president of US$1-trillion asset manager Blackstone Inc. ", " wants to hear from you.

18 CANADIAN REITS THAT OFFER SAFETY AND VALUE

G&M (2023-09-28)

The S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index has fallen over 20 per cent from its pandemic-era high in March, 2022 owing to spiking interest rates and bond yields. We thought we would take a contrarian approach and analyze the sector using our investment philosophy focused on safety and value in hopes of finding some bargains. Analysts on the Street are generally forecasting future cash flow growth and the sector may look even more attractive should rates begin to fall. Our analysis includes both property companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that hold assets in a variety of real estate segments, such as commercial, office, residential, industrial, etc.

THERE'S A 90% CHANCE OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: GOLDMAN SACHS

Yahoo Finance - Ines Ferré and Ben Werschkul (2023-09-28)

On Tuesday evening, the Senate released what is likely a last-chance deal to avert a closure. The 79-page bill would keep the government open until Nov. 17. It is designed to allow more time for negotiations over a broader spending deal that Congress must pass before the end of the year.

NEW YORK REMAINS TOP FINANCIAL CENTRE, LONDON CLINGS TO SECOND PLACE - SURVEY

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-28)

New York has easily remained the world's top financial centre with London still second and gaining some ground, but also facing a tougher fight with Singapore and Hong Kong, the Global Financial Centres index showed on Thursday.

EVERGRANDE HALTS TRADING AFTER FOUNDER PUT UNDER POLICE CONTROL

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-28)

Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan was taken away earlier this month and is being monitored at a designated location, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. It’s not clear why Hui is under so-called residential surveillance, a type of police action that falls short of formal detention or arrest and doesn’t mean Hui will be charged with a crime.

THE SCREEN STRUGGLE IS REAL AND TD BANK IS MAKING ITS SOLUTION FREE TO THE PUBLIC

FP - Denise Paglinawan (2023-09-28)

It includes features such as reading guides, adjustable font size, dark mode, a dyslexia-friendly font and monochrome mode. The tool changes what appears on the browser itself without using overlays and can coexist with other assistive technologies, such as stand-alone screen magnification software.

BRITAIN TO EASE CAPITAL RULES FOR RETAIL BANKS TO BOOST COMPETITION

Reuters - Huw Jones (2023-09-28)

 Britain's finance ministry, which is seeking to boost competition in the banking sector, on Thursday proposed legislation to ease rules that require banks to "ring-fence" their retail arms with a capital reserve.

ODEY RECORDING, UBS PROBE & A REWILDING BET | BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE EDITION

Youtube - Podcast (2023-09-28)

Crispin Odey joked about his accusers and blamed the 'woke brigade' for the downfall. (2) The US Department of Justice has stepped up its probe of Credit Suisse & UBS on sanction breaches. (3) China Evergrande Group and its units have suspended trading in Hong Kong.

BLACKSTONE OFFICIALLY OPENS CANADIAN OFFICE IN TORONTO

Investment Executive - Mark Burgess (2023-09-28)

Brad Marshall, Blackstone’s global head of private credit strategies, was in Toronto Wednesday for the opening. He said the firm now has 10 people working in the Toronto office, a permanent space it moved into during the summer.

CANADA’S BANKING REGULATOR TO PROBE FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AT LENDERS

G&M (2023-09-27)

Canada’s banking regulator is expanding its mandate to begin probing issues of foreign interference and national-security issues at the country’s largest banks and insurers by early next year.

FEDS UNLOCK ANOTHER $20-BILLION FOR LOW-COST RENTAL CONSTRUCTION FINANCING, FREELAND SAYS

G&M (2023-09-27)

The federal government is unlocking another $20 billion in low-cost financing for the construction of rental housing across Canada, Finance Minister announced Tuesday.

SPRINTING STAR ANDRE DE GRASSE STEPS OUT OF HIS LANE FOR A NEW PURSUIT – BACKING STARTUPS

G&M (2023-09-27)

Canadian sprinter Andre De Grasse is moving into a new lane, backing startups through his newly formed company

JPMORGAN CHASE TO PAY $75M TO U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN JEFFREY EPSTEIN SUIT

CBC (2023-09-27)

JPMorgan said its $75 million US settlement with the USVI includes $30 million to support charitable organizations, $25 million to strengthen law enforcement to combat human trafficking, and $20 million for attorney's fees.

CLASS ACTION AGAINST TORONTO REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY OVER COMMISSIONS GETS GREEN LIGHT

Yahoo Finance - Shantaé Campbell (2023-09-27)

The lawsuit, filed in April 2021 on behalf Toronto resident Mark Sunderland and anyone who sold a home in the GTA after 2010, alleges misconduct by several of the nation’s leading brokerages, including Century 21, Remax and IproRealty Ltd. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) are also named in the lawsuit.

HOME PRICES IN US HIT RECORD HIGH, ERASING RECENT DECLINE

Yahoo Finance - Alicia Clanton (2023-09-27)

This year’s gains have offset the 5% decline in prices from last year’s peak in June 2022 to January 2023, when the market was slowing.

BANKS AND PRIVATE LENDERS VIE FOR $4.2 BILLION DEBT DEAL FOR ADEVINTA

Yahoo Finance - Silas Brown, Claire Ruckin and Eleanor Duncan (2023-09-27)

Adevinta last week said that it received a non-binding takeover proposal from a private equity consortium that includes Blackstone Inc. and Permira, confirming an earlier Bloomberg report revealing plans for what would be one of the year’s biggest buyouts.

BANKING WATCHDOG WANTS TO REIN IN ULTRA-LONG MORTGAGES

FP (2023-09-27)

EVERGRANDE CHAIRMAN UNDER POLICE WATCH; LIQUIDATION RISK MOUNTS

Reuters - Scott Murdoch, Julie Zhu and Rae Wee (2023-09-27)

The chairman of China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has been placed under police surveillance, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, raising more doubts about the embattled developer's future as it grapples with mounting prospects of liquidation.

THE $300 TRILLION QUESTION

Bloomberg - Lucy White, Catarina Saraiva, and Swati Pandey (2023-09-27)

Ligaya Kelly worries her pet boarding facility on the outskirts of Los Angeles won’t survive the winter if loan costs keep rising. Economist Diana Mousina says she’ll have to sell her Sydney investment property if interest rates remain higher. John Stanyer has cut back plans for his holiday park in the north of England after his mortgage repayments almost tripled.

INSURERS CONTINUED PAYING RECORD BENEFITS IN YEAR THREE OF PANDEMIC

CLHIA (2023-09-27)

Insurers paid $114 billion in life and health benefits in 2022, slightly more than the previous record set in 2021 and $11 billion more than pre-pandemic levels, the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association (CLHIA) said Tuesday in its annual statistics report.

FORMER WIRECARD MAN MARSALEK NAMED IN RUSSIA SPY CASE

Finextra (2023-09-27)

Marsalek has been on the run from police since the collapse of Wirecard in 2020 after the discovery of massive €1.9 billion black hole in its accounts. He is believed to have fled to Moscow and taken shelter under the protection of the protection of Russian army intelligence unit the GRU.

BIS CHIEF CALLS ON COUNTRIES TO MODERNISE LEGAL FRAMEWORKS TO SUPPORT CBDCS

Finextra (2023-09-27)

According to an IMF paper published in 2021, close to 80% of central banks are either not allowed to issue a digital currency under their existing laws, or the legal framework is unclear.

BANK OF ENGLAND HALTS RUN OF INTEREST RATE HIKES

G&M - Video (2023-09-26)

The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Sept. 21 as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted.

THE BAD ECONOMIC TIMES HAVE ONLY JUST STARTED

CBC - Peter Armstrong (2023-09-26)

The Canadian economy is headed for a rough patch. Growth has already slowed considerably. Job growth has moderated. Inflation remains stubbornly high. But the pain households are feeling today is only going to get worse.

UAW FIGHT AGAINST BILLIONS IN BUYBACKS FORCES INVESTOR RETHINK

Yahoo Finance - Esha Dey (2023-09-26)

“The companies have room to go higher than their current offer,” said Patrick Kaser, a portfolio manager for Brandywine Global, which has a stake in GM as part of its $54 billion in assets under management as of June 30. “If they pause the buyback because they need to invest in an attractive longer-term plan, that is fine.”

AMERICAN EXPRESS’S STEVE SQUERI: ‘IF YOU’RE NOT READY FOR THE UPSWING, YOU’VE MISSED’

FT (2023-09-26)

“It was based on a philosophy that we were not playing a short-term game,” Squeri remembers. “In any downturn, there’s always an upswing. And if you’re not ready for the upswing, you’ve missed an opportunity to move ahead.”

PATERNITY LEAVE IN FINANCE: ‘THE MORE MEN DO IT, THE LESS OF A BIG DEAL IT BECOMES’

FT - Emma Jacobs (2023-09-26)

Shortly before his second stint of extended parental leave, City lawyer Adam was left embarrassed in front of clients when a senior partner asked why he was taking time off instead of his wife.

THE MASSIVE SCALE OF CHINA’S PROPERTY SECTOR

Reuters - Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit Kongkunakornkul and Jitesh Chowdhury (2023-09-26)

Country Garden’s risk of default rings alarm bells because of its size; It was the sector’s largest company by attributable sales, 356.9 billion yuan in 2022. It has 3,121 projects at different development stages across Mainland China, both commercial and residential.
The physical size of Country Garden’s real estate portfolio is enormous. As of the end of 2022, a total of 127.8 million sq. meters of gross floor area was under development, of which more than 60% was already sold.
Property sales by floor area in China fell by 7.1% between January and August of 2023 compared to the first eight months of last year. Investment completed by the real estate sector declined by 8.8% year-on-year, the second lowest since 1999. Funds raised by developers in the January-August period of this year fell by nearly 13%.

BANKS IN EU LARGELY COMPLY WITH 'BASEL ENDGAME', SAYS WATCHDOG

Reuters (2023-09-26)

Banks in the European Union already largely meet stricter global capital requirements ahead of a 2028 deadline, with the shortfall now down to 600 million euros ($635.8 million), the bloc's banking watchdog said on Tuesday.

US DOLLAR EMERGES AS BEST HAVEN FROM AMERICAN GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN FEARS

Bloomberg - Garfield Reynolds (2023-09-26)

The greenback is once more proving it’s the only haven that matters.

DOLLAR GAINS HEAP PRESSURE ON EMERGING-MARKET STOCKS, CURRENCIES

Bloomberg - Andras Gergely (2023-09-26)

Emerging-market stocks fell to the lowest level since March as a strengthening dollar and elevated US yields damped investor appetite for riskier assets.

HALF OF CANADA’S YOUNG ADULTS GAVE UP ON HOMEOWNERSHIP: MORTGAGE PROS

Better Dwelling (2023-09-26)

Canadians are losing hope when it comes to buying a home. Nearly half (48%) of non-homeowners surveyed don’t see themselves ever being able to buy a home. It’s a sharp increase of 15 points compared to just six months ago, as Canada remains near its worst level of affordability ever. 

SEC SANCTIONS DEUTSCHE BANK FOR GREENWASHING, AML VIOLATIONS

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-26)

Without admitting or denying the regulator’s charges, DWS Investment Management Americas Inc. agreed to pay US$25 million to settle the charges: US$19 million for the greenwashing allegations and US$6 million for AML violations.

WHY THE U.S. JOB MARKET HAS DEFIED RISING RATES AND EXPECTATIONS OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2023-09-26)

Yet so far, to widespread relief, the reality has been anything but: as interest rates have surged, inflation has tumbled from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.7%. Yet the unemployment rate, at a still-low 3.8%, has scarcely budged since March 2022, when the Fed began imposing a series of 11 rate hikes at the fastest pace in decades.

MARKETS GIRD FOR HIGHER-FOR-LONGER RATES: MOODY’S

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-26)

“In our view, interest rates will remain high, and the Fed will not be in a hurry to cut rates out of an abundance of caution,” Moody’s noted.

EVERGRANDE SHARES SINK AFTER SAYING IT IS UNABLE TO ISSUE NEW DEBT

G&M (2023-09-25)

Shares of China Evergrande plunged as much as 24% on Monday after the embattled developer said it was unable to issue new debt due to an ongoing investigation into one of its subsidiaries, dealing a fresh blow to its restructuring plans. “In view of Hengda Real Estate Group Co Ltd, a principal subsidiary of the company, being investigated, the group is unable to meet the qualifications for the issuance of new notes under the present circumstances,” Evergrande said in a statement late on Sunday.

DEAR BOOMING CHINESE ECONOMY OF THE PAST: BYE-BYE, THE WEST SHAN’T MISS YOU

G&M - John Rapley (2023-09-25)

After a summer filled with speculation about China’s sinking economy, recent news lifted some of the gloom. In reports that came out mid-September, both factory output and retail sales turned back up. Cue the celebrations that China is back and will lift the world economy, as it did after the 2008 financial crisis.

MONERIS NETWORK OUTAGE CAUSES WIDESPREAD DISRUPTION OF CREDIT, DEBIT PAYMENTS

CBC (2023-09-25)

Credit- and debit-processing firm Moneris confirmed it experienced a network outage on Saturday amid widespread reports of problems with customer payment terminals in several parts of Canada.

TRUDEAU EXPECTS CANADIAN INTEREST RATES TO COME DOWN BY MID 2024

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-25)

"We know things are going to start getting better. Inflation is coming down. We think interest rates are going to start coming down probably middle of next year," Trudeau told the New York Times in an interview just before returning to Canada after attending the United Nations General Assembly.

WHY TRADERS AREN'T BUYING THE FED'S 'HIGHER-FOR-LONGER' VISION

Yahoo Finance - Ann Saphir (2023-09-25)

Meanwhile, interest rate futures contracts continue to price in only about a 50% chance of further tightening in 2023, and see a 4.65% policy rate by the end of next year.

SWEDEN’S EMBATTLED SBB PLANS BREAK UP TO EASE FUNDING CRISIS

Yahoo Finance - Charles Daly and Anton Wilen (2023-09-25)

A deal with Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. is the cornerstone of a break-up plan announced on Sunday by SBB Chief Executive Officer Leiv Synnes, who replaced embattled founder Ilija Batljan in June. While the agreement is complex, it shows that value can be extracted despite bonds markets being all but closed to the sector.

NATIONAL BANK CEO WARNS OF HARSH 'NEW REALITY' FOR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE BORROWERS

FP - Christine Dobby and Mathieu Dion (2023-09-25)

SEC COLLECTS WALL STREET'S PRIVATE MESSAGES AS WHATSAPP PROBE ESCALATES

Reuters - Chris Prentice and Carolina Mandl (2023-09-25)

The U.S. securities regulator has collected thousands of staff messages from more than a dozen major investment companies, escalating its probe into Wall Street's use of private messaging apps, said four people with direct knowledge of the matter.

ITALY HAS NO BUYERS FOR MONTE DEI PASCHI, EYES SMALL SHARE SALES INSTEAD OF EXIT, SOURCES SAY

Reuters (2023-09-25)

Italy is unable to sell out of Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) (BMPS.MI) in the near term because of a lack of interested buyers and may proceed instead by placing small blocks of shares on the market, two people close to the matter said on Friday.

CHINESE GOLD BUYING IS DRIVING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN BULLION

Bloomberg - Eddie Spence and Yvonne Yue Li (2023-09-25)

What determines the price of gold? For much of the past decade the answer was easy: the price of money. The lower rates fell, the higher gold climbed, and vice versa.

MERCEDES TRANSFORMS CAR INTO PAYMENT DEVICE

Finextra (2023-09-25)

Under the collaboration, customers will be able to use a fingerprint sensor in their car to make secure digital payments at more than 3,600 service stations in Germany.

REVOLUT LAUNCHES SWIFT CHALLENGER REVTAG

Finextra (2023-09-25)

Users of Revolut Business can make transactions by entering the RevTag of an individual or business in the Revolut Business app, without using IBANs or additional beneficiary details. The feature is free and provides businesses with the ability to pay employees and contractors in over 150 countries and regions around the world.

CPP BOARD DISPUTES MATH BEHIND ALBERTA’S BID TO WITHDRAW FROM NATIONAL PENSION FUND

G&M - James Bradshaw, Carrie Tait (2023-09-22)

The Canada Pension Plan’s investment arm said Alberta’s claim that it could withdraw more than half of the national pension fund’s assets is based on “an invented formula” that is divorced from reality, sharply criticizing the math behind Premier Danielle Smith’s push to set up an alternative provincial pension system.

DEMOGRAPHICS, NOT THE BANK OF CANADA, WILL DRIVE INTEREST RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER

G&M (2023-09-22)

Many investors breathed a sigh of relief when the Bank of Canada chose to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5 per cent at its meeting on Sept. 6. But that hasn’t stopped the speculation as to whether the next move will be up or down, and the timing of that move.

"FRAUD IN AUTO, CREDIT CARD AND MORTGAGE SECTORS HAS RISEN AMID INTEREST RATE HIKES: STUDY

G&M (2023-09-22)

New data suggests an uptick in fraud in the auto, credit card and mortgage sectors is driven by growing financial pressures on consumers and by fraudsters using bold schemes. An Equifax Canada report shows fraud in the automotive sector has surged 28 per cent, year-over-year, while the credit cards saw a jump of 37.9 per cent. The mortgage sector saw an 18.8 per cent increase in the fraud rate.

AS ‘PERFECT STORM’ PUSHES MORE TO THE BRINK, HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT BANKRUPTCY

G&M (2023-09-22)

With Canadians’ debt on the rise as they deal with surging prices and interest rates, experts say many people are in the dark about the insolvency process, even though it could help those in dire straits get a clean slate.

LOWEST FIXED AND VARIABLE MORTGAGE RATES IN CANADA FOR SEPTEMBER 21 2023

G&M (2023-09-22)

It was another week where Canada’s leading nationally advertised mortgage rates did absolutely nothing.", "Yet.", "Fixed rates are in imminent danger of climbing because of inflation chugging an energy drink and unexpectedly surging back to 4 per cent. .

U.S. FED HOLDS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE STEADY — BUT HINTS ANOTHER HIKE IS COMING

CBC (2023-09-22)

But from there the Fed's updated quarterly projections show rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared to the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June. With the federal funds rate falling to 5.1 per cent by the end of 2024 and 3.9 per cent by the end of 2025, the central bank's main measure of inflation is projected to drop to 3.3 per cent by the end of this year, to 2.5 per cent next year and to 2.2 per cent by the end of 2025.

FED IS CUTTING STAFF AFTER MORE THAN A DECADE OF PAYROLL GROWTH

Yahoo Finance - Howard Schneider (2023-09-22)

A Fed spokesperson said the cuts are focused on the staff of the U.S. central bank's 12 regional reserve banks and mainly hit information technology jobs, including some no longer needed because of the spread of cloud-based computer software, and positions connected to the Fed's various systems for processing payments, which are being consolidated.

COOLING AI BOOM DRIVES $14 BILLION OUTFLOW FROM TAIWAN STOCKS

Yahoo Finance - Jenny Yu, Chien-Hua Wan (2023-09-22)

The selloff has weighed on the Taiwanese dollar, which has depreciated more than 3% this quarter, the worst performance in Asia for the current quarter. Taiwan’s central bank said Thursday that the local currency has been under heavy pressure amid foreign outflows and withdrawal of dividends since early August.

RBC PROCEEDS WITH JOB CUTS ON U.S., CANADA CAPITAL MARKETS DESKS

FP - Esteban Duarte and Paula Sambo (2023-09-22)

CANADIAN UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RIP TO 2008 HIGH, DISQUALIFICATIONS SOAR

Better Dwelling (2023-09-22)

The nearly 10-point annual growth observed is unusually high for the month. Excluding 2020, the last July to climb this much was back in 2016, post-Oil Patch recession. There’s a big difference between then and now though—this isn’t a recession. In theory, Canada is just above its record low unemployment. It’s an unusual combination, to say the least. 

ALBERTA DESERVES MORE THAN HALF CPP ASSETS IF IT EXITS PROGRAM: REPORT

Investment Executive (2023-09-22)

A third-party report compiled by consultant Lifeworks released Thursday calculates that if Alberta gave the required three-year notice to quit CPP next year, it would be entitled to $334 billion, or about 53%, of the national pension plan’s pool by 2027.

"FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY HAS BECOME NEW NORMAL FOR MANY CANADIANS, RBC SURVEY SUGGESTS

G&M (2023-09-21)

A new RBC survey suggests financial uncertainty has become the new normal for many Canadians as inflation eats into their savings and hampers their future financial security.", "The rising cost of living tops Canadians’ list of worries, according to the poll, with 77 per cent of respondents saying they are not able to save as much as they would like to and roughly half saying they’ve never been more stressed about money.

MILES NADAL’S TINY FAMILY OF FUNDS: EXPENSIVE, UNDERPERFORMING, AND TARGETED BY ACTIVISTS

G&M (2023-09-21)

You may not have heard of a small outfit called Artemis Investment Management Ltd. but you likely have heard of its owner, Miles Nadal – philanthropist, entrepreneur and former CEO of public company MDC Partners, where he resigned after U.S. regulators accused him in 2017 of collecting millions in undisclosed perks.

AIR CANADA SAYS UNAUTHORIZED GROUP BREACHED EMPLOYEE DATA, HACKED INTERNAL SYSTEM

G&M - Temur Durrani (2023-09-21)

Air Canada says an unauthorized group of people obtained access to its internal system, compromising the personal information of an unknown number of employees working for the country’s largest airline.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDS RATES STEADY, BUT SIGNALS ONE MORE HIKE THIS YEAR

G&M (2023-09-21)

U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday, but signalled support for one more rate increase this year and fewer rate cuts next year as the American economy proves more resilient than expected.

WE'RE CALLING BULL ON THE 'NEW BULL MARKET'

FP - David Rosenberg (2023-09-21)

This year’s rally was purely driven by factors that tend to be brief in nature and non-fundamental, as in technicals, sentiment (animal spirits) and short covering. At true lows in the bear market cycle, we tend to see breadth improve much more forcefully than has been the case so far; we tend to see financials and the cyclical sectors outperform, and this has definitely not happened; and the small caps start to take leadership in a sign that investors are beginning to discount a return to accelerating economic growth. The same holds true for emerging-market equities as they too are a torque on improving economic growth — and that hasn’t happened either.

BOE RATE HIKE ON KNIFE EDGE AFTER INFLATION FALL

Bloomberg - Lucy White and Greg Ritchie (2023-09-21)

Bank of England policy makers will decide on Thursday whether to call a halt to a string of 14 consecutive interest-rate increases, with investors and handful of economists raising doubts about another hike.

ONTARIO REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY WANTS STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS…FOR DOWNPAYMENTS

Better Dwelling (2023-09-21)

Key findings include insights on outstanding credit and home-buying intentions. Students with more than $5,000 in student debt tend to claim the debt makes it difficult to save for a home. Students with debt hold about $14,500 on average, and most plan to repay it within 5 years. 

BANK OF CANADA WATCHING ITS WORDS TO AVOID RATE CUT SPECULATION, SUMMARY REVEALS

Investment Executive (2023-09-21)

Though the latest inflation reading shows price growth heading in the wrong direction, the central bank is also keeping an eye on other economic indicators.

CANADA’S INFLATION RATE RISES TO 4% IN AUGUST, PUTTING PRESSURE ON BOC

G&M (2023-09-20)

Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated sharply for the second month in a row, raising the odds that the Bank of Canada could deliver at least one more interest rate increase this year despite hitting pause on monetary policy tightening earlier this month.

IN SPLITTING FROM CPA CANADA, ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BODIES TREAT MEMBERS LIKE CHILDREN

G&M (2023-09-20)

In 1955 Pete Seeger wrote the classic folk song 'Replace “Flowers” with “Leaders” and the song, which is a meditation on death, aptly describes the current state of the leadership of the Canadian Chartered Professional Accountants profession where, if not death, there is a certainly an apparent dearth of leadership.

ANNUAL PACE OF HOUSING STARTS IN CANADA DOWN 1% IN AUGUST

G&M (2023-09-20)

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in Canada edged down one per cent in August compared with July.

HOW RECHIE VALDEZ WENT FROM BANKER TO BAKER TO SMALL BUSINESS MINISTER

G&M - Governance (2023-09-20)

In early 2020, Rechie Valdez made a decision. She would leave the banking industry, where she had worked for more than 15 years, to focus full time on her small business: baking desserts and wedding cakes.

"RBC HIRES EXECUTIVE CHAIR FOR U.S. BANK CITY NATIONAL WHO WILL REPORT DIRECTLY TO CEO

G&M (2023-09-20)

Greg Carmichael, the former chief executive officer of U.S. regional lender Fifth Third Bancorp, is set to join RBC in October. While he will technically sit on City National’s board of directors, he will report directly to RBC CEO Dave McKay.

ONTARIO TEACHERS’ PENSION PLAN CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER TO DEPART AT THE END OF DECEMBER

G&M - James Bradshaw (2023-09-20)

Chief investment officer Ziad Hindo is leaving the pension fund manager at the end of the year after five years in the role.

CREDIT CARD BALANCE TRANSFERS: A FANTASTIC DEAL, BUT NOT A SOLUTION TO YOUR DEBT WOES

G&M (2023-09-20)

Balance transfers, which offer interest-free promotional periods for new customers who shift over their debt, offer a good option for consumers facing large bills as interest rates rise.

WANT A THREE PERCENT MORTGAGE RATE? GIVE ASSUMABLE MORTGAGES A LOOK

Yahoo Finance - Eyek Ntekim and Akiko Fujita (2023-09-20)

Roam CEO Raunaq Singh suggests buyers and sellers take a look at assumable loans. Assumable loans, according to Singh, are loans in which the buyers "take over the interest rate that the seller currently has." In other words, the rates that the seller paid are the same rates the new buyer will pay. This, according to Singh allow for more affordability and increases opportunities for sellers. Roam takes 1% of purchase price from each sale made through their site.

DEUTSCHE BANK PROMISES NEW STEPS TO RECTIFY POSTBANK'S SERVICE COMPLAINTS

Yahoo Finance - Tom Sims (2023-09-20)

The comments by Christian Sewing, Germany's top banker, come after its financial regulator termed as "unacceptable" the disruptions experienced in Postbank's online offerings, the difficulty clients had in reaching its customer service and in the long processing times.

UK WATCHDOG SETS THREE-MONTH DEADLINE TO IMPROVE CAR INSURANCE

Reuters - Huw Jones (2023-09-20)

Britain's financial watchdog has told motor insurers they have three months to improve the value they give customers in products that top up coverage, or face potential sanctions.

RUSSIA BECOMES UAE’S TOP GOLD SOURCE AFTER BEING SHUT OUT OF WEST

Bloomberg - Eddie Spence (2023-09-20)

Russia became the United Arab Emirates’ top source of gold last year after Western countries imposed sanctions on supplies following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

CANADA NO LONGER HAS THE LOWEST INFLATION IN THE G7, SET TO ACCELERATE

Better Dwelling (2023-09-20)

Porter sees this applying more pressure on the central bank. “Things just got a lot more interesting for the Bank of Canada, and most definitely not in a good way. We all knew that the extended back-up in gasoline prices was going to be a headache for headline CPI and inflation expectations, but the inconvenient truth is that core has suddenly heated up as well,” he said. 

FORMER U.S. CONGRESSMAN GETS JAIL FOR INSIDER TRADING

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-20)

According to evidence presented in court, Buyer traded with advance knowledge of the 2018 merger of telecom giants Sprint Corp. and T-Mobile US Inc. after learning of the planned deal from T-Mobile executives.

HOUSING MARKET SLOWS IN AUGUST, REPORTED PRICE DECLINES EXAGGERATES WEAKNESS

Central 1 - Brian Yu (2023-09-19)

The combination of rate hikes, fi nancial stress, and uncertainty are curbing household demand for real estate, but declining sales were not universal among provinces. British Columbia, which is more interest rate sensitive given high household debt and high home values, recorded a 10.7 per cent plunge in sales which was the steepest among provinces and pushed sales to the lowest level since March. Ontario (-6.2 per cent) and Quebec (-4.9 per cent) also reported signifi cant declines.

FORMER GOLDMAN COMMODITIES CHIEF JOINS CANADIAN COMPANY PLANNING TO LAUNCH TRANSITION-FOCUSED FUTURES

G&M - Jeffrey Jones (2023-09-19)

Abaxx, which counts mining financier Robert Friedland as a backer, is nearing regulatory approval to begin its trading operations in Singapore, where it is creating futures contracts for liquefied natural gas, carbon offsets and nickel sulphate, a material used in the manufacture of batteries.

BMO SHUTTING DOWN INDIRECT RETAIL AUTO FINANCE BUSINESS AS BAD DEBTS MOUNT

CBC (2023-09-19)

The bank, which announced the move on Saturday, has conducted this business in Canada and the United States. The move comes after BMO's overall bad debt provisions rose to $492 million, compared with $136 million a year earlier, for the quarter ended July 31 in a sign of growing stress consumers face from a rapid rise in borrowing costs.

WHY THE BANK OF CANADA PAUSE WON'T SAVE THE HOUSING MARKET THIS TIME

Yahoo Finance - Pamela Heaven (2023-09-19)

Now new listings are surging back to historic norms, up 5.5 per cent in August from last year, and there’s a record number of homes under construction that will make their way onto the market, he said.

THE $300-TRILLION QUESTION: ARE HIGHER INTEREST RATES HERE TO STAY?

FP - Lucy White (2023-09-19)

Ligaya Kelly worries her pet boarding facility on the outskirts of Los Angeles won’t survive the winter if loan costs keep rising. Economist Diana Mousina says she’ll have to sell her Sydney investment property if interest rates remain higher. John Stanyer has cut back plans for his holiday park in the north of England after his mortgage repayments almost tripled.

GRAFT ACCUSATIONS DOG TOP ZELENSKIY AIDES

Reuters (2023-09-19)

In his years as the chief executive of one of Ukraine's biggest construction firms, Oleh Maiboroda kept rolls of dollar bills in a safe behind his desk.

DEUTSCHE BANK'S PROBLEMS AT POSTBANK UNIT ARE 'UNACCEPTABLE', REGULATOR SAYS

Reuters (2023-09-19)

Germany's top financial regulator has called problems affecting customers at Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) Postbank unit "unacceptable", two weeks after the agency issued an unusual rebuke of the lender.

CANADIAN NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION PULLS BACK, EXPECTED TO PULL BACK FURTHER

Better Dwelling (2023-09-19)

Canada has seen the new housing construction starts take a dip on the back of weak demand. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new home starts fell 1% to 253k units in July. Construction starts for urban housing fell 1%, with urban multi-unit construction falling 1.4%, pulling down the 1.7% increase when it came to single-detached urban starts. 

REGULATORS MULL REDEMPTION FEES FOR INVESTORS WHO SELL DURING MARKET STRESS

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-19)

When sellers don’t have to “bear the costs of liquidity” when redeeming units, the remaining investors are disadvantaged, a report from IOSCO stated.

REPORT CARD ON BANKS 2023 MAIN CHART

Investment Executive (2023-09-19)

Detailed report on Canadian banks with coverage of issues such as how advisors rate their banks, salaries and other issues related to competitive issues between banks.

HOW AI IS SUPERCHARGING FINANCIAL FRAUD–AND MAKING IT HARDER TO SPOT

Forbes (2023-09-19)

I wanted to inform you that Chase owes you a refund of $2,000. To expedite the process and ensure you receive your refund as soon as possible, please follow the instructions below: 1. Call Chase Customer Service at 1-800-953-XXXX to inquire about the status of your refund. Be sure to have your account details and any relevant information ready …”

BIG SIX BANKS OPEN TO REFINANCING CEBA LOANS FOR SMALL BUSINESSES

G&M - Chris Hannay (2023-09-18)

The Big Six banks say they are open to refinancing Canada Emergency Business Account loans for small businesses, though they provided few details and say new terms will have to be decided on a case-by-case basis.

CHINA EVERGRANDE SHARES TUMBLE 25 PER CENT AFTER WEALTH MANAGEMENT STAFF DETAINED

G&M (2023-09-18)

Shares of embattled developer China Evergrande Group plunged 25 per cent on Monday after police detained some staff at its wealth management unit, suggesting a new investigation that could add to the property company’s woes.

BANK OF MONTREAL WINDS DOWN ITS RETAIL AUTO FINANCE BUSINESS, SHIFTS FOCUS TO OTHER AREAS

G&M (2023-09-18)

is exiting a segment of the auto loan business dominated by two rivals, a move at the country’s third-largest lender that reflects a drive to cut costs and limit exposure to one consumer debt sector,

NEW CREDIT-CARD OFFERS TARGET A FINANCIALLY STRESSED CUSTOMER BASE, NOT BIG SPENDERS

G&M (2023-09-18)

A study by American Express Canada shows that more credit-card holders are redeeming points for groceries than travel, and it’s not even close.

CANADA'S HOUSING CRISIS WILL TAKE YEARS TO SOLVE -FINANCE MINISTER

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-18)

An affordable housing crisis that is hurting the Canadian government's popularity will take years to resolve, even if construction hits an 80-year high, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Saturday.

FED EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES STEADY WHILE KEEPING DOOR OPEN TO MORE HIKES

Yahoo Finance - Jennifer Schonberger (2023-09-18)

"They are being very risk averse and they're still worried about making the mistake of the 1970s of letting inflation go back up," said Wilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley. "They don't want the market to take any kind of signal of dovishness and run with it. They need to keep financial conditions tight."

A TALE OF TWO CENTRAL BANKS AS URUGUAY RISES AND ARGENTINA SLIDES

Yahoo Finance - Lucinda Elliot (2023-09-18)

Diego Labat, Uruguay's central bank chief, is sitting pretty. Inflation is at the lowest level in nearly two decades, the currency is one of the region's strongest, and the country is leading a regional pivot towards interest rate easing.

'EVERYBODY SHOULD JUST SHUT UP': BANK OF CANADA'S INDEPENDENCE UNDER PRESSURE FROM POLITICAL COMMENTS

FP - Gigi Suhanic (2023-09-18)

The Bank of Canada is supposed to be free from government interference, but elected officials have become more vocal about interest rates, inflation and the effect on their citizens, leaving some experts fretting about the central bank’s independence when it comes to monetary policy.

CANADIAN WESTERN BANK GROWS IN CHALLENGING TIMES

FP - Larysa Harapyn (2023-09-18)

Chris Fowler, chief executive, Canadian Western Bank talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how CWB is growing in challenging times. He discusses the impact of higher interest rates on businesses and more.

HOME PRICES LEVELLING OFF AS SALES SLOW, LISTINGS REBOUND: CREA

FP - Denise Paglanawan (2023-09-18)

Average home prices rose slightly in August, up 0.4 per cent, while sales slowed and new listings returned to more normal levels, a sign that demand and supply are continuing to come into better balance, according to monthly data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

CANADA POSTPONES TRADE MISSION TO INDIA WITH TENSIONS ON RISE

Bloomberg - Brian Platt (2023-09-18)

Canada is postponing a trade mission to India that was planned for early October, a move that comes as broader trade talks between the two countries have stalled.

MEET THE WOMAN VYING TO TAKE THE REINS OF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMY

Bloomberg - Ainsley Thomson (2023-09-18)

In practice debates before previous New Zealand elections, Nicola Willis used to play the role of formidable female politicians.

FOREIGN INVESTORS STAY HUNGRY FOR CANADIAN DEBT

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-18)

The national statistical agency reported that foreign investment in Canadian securities came in at $11.6 billion in July — led by $10.3 billion in corporate bonds and $5.2 billion of government bonds amid rising interest rates.

HSBC TO OFFER CREDIT CARDS TO MIGRANTS WITH NO UK CREDIT HISTORY

Finextra (2023-09-18)

The bank has teamed up with international credit bureau Nova Credit, which offers data on credit history from 12 overseas countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Dominican Republic, India, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Philippines, Spain, Switzerland, and the US.

AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK CBDC RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS LONG PATH TO ANY FUTURE DEPLOYMENT

Finextra (2023-12-23)

Operating in a ring-fenced environment and involving a digital currency that is a real claim on the Reserve Bank, 14 pilot projects with a range of industry participants investigated potential CBDC use cases.

INTERAC EXPANDING E-TRANSFER SERVICE, WEALTHSIMPLE TO JOIN

G&M (2023-09-28)

Interac Corp. is broadening the range of financial institutions that can participate in its e-transfer service, with financial services firm Wealthsimple as the first to become a new participant under the expansion.

HARSH REALITY OF ‘HIGHER-FOR-LONGER’ RATES LOOMS OVER U.S. STOCKS

G&M (2023-09-28)

As the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance boosts Treasury yields and slams stocks, some investors are preparing for more pain ahead.

BLACKSTONE PRESIDENT SEES OPPORTUNITY IN TURMOIL

G&M - James Bradshaw (2023-09-28)

If you’re a CEO feeling stressed about debt, the president of US$1-trillion asset manager Blackstone Inc. ", " wants to hear from you.

AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK CBDC RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS LONG PATH TO ANY FUTURE DEPLOYMENT

Finextra (2023-12-23)

Operating in a ring-fenced environment and involving a digital currency that is a real claim on the Reserve Bank, 14 pilot projects with a range of industry participants investigated potential CBDC use cases.

18 CANADIAN REITS THAT OFFER SAFETY AND VALUE

G&M (2023-09-28)

The S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index has fallen over 20 per cent from its pandemic-era high in March, 2022 owing to spiking interest rates and bond yields. We thought we would take a contrarian approach and analyze the sector using our investment philosophy focused on safety and value in hopes of finding some bargains. Analysts on the Street are generally forecasting future cash flow growth and the sector may look even more attractive should rates begin to fall. Our analysis includes both property companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that hold assets in a variety of real estate segments, such as commercial, office, residential, industrial, etc.

EVERGRANDE HALTS TRADING AFTER FOUNDER PUT UNDER POLICE CONTROL

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-28)

Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan was taken away earlier this month and is being monitored at a designated location, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. It’s not clear why Hui is under so-called residential surveillance, a type of police action that falls short of formal detention or arrest and doesn’t mean Hui will be charged with a crime.

CANADA’S BANKING REGULATOR TO PROBE FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AT LENDERS

G&M (2023-09-27)

Canada’s banking regulator is expanding its mandate to begin probing issues of foreign interference and national-security issues at the country’s largest banks and insurers by early next year.

FEDS UNLOCK ANOTHER $20-BILLION FOR LOW-COST RENTAL CONSTRUCTION FINANCING, FREELAND SAYS

G&M (2023-09-27)

The federal government is unlocking another $20 billion in low-cost financing for the construction of rental housing across Canada, Finance Minister announced Tuesday.

CLASS ACTION AGAINST TORONTO REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY OVER COMMISSIONS GETS GREEN LIGHT

Yahoo Finance - Shantaé Campbell (2023-09-27)

The lawsuit, filed in April 2021 on behalf Toronto resident Mark Sunderland and anyone who sold a home in the GTA after 2010, alleges misconduct by several of the nation’s leading brokerages, including Century 21, Remax and IproRealty Ltd. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) are also named in the lawsuit.

HOME PRICES IN US HIT RECORD HIGH, ERASING RECENT DECLINE

Yahoo Finance - Alicia Clanton (2023-09-27)

This year’s gains have offset the 5% decline in prices from last year’s peak in June 2022 to January 2023, when the market was slowing.

BANKING WATCHDOG WANTS TO REIN IN ULTRA-LONG MORTGAGES

FP (2023-09-27)

EVERGRANDE CHAIRMAN UNDER POLICE WATCH; LIQUIDATION RISK MOUNTS

Reuters - Scott Murdoch, Julie Zhu and Rae Wee (2023-09-27)

The chairman of China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has been placed under police surveillance, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, raising more doubts about the embattled developer's future as it grapples with mounting prospects of liquidation.

THE $300 TRILLION QUESTION

Bloomberg - Lucy White, Catarina Saraiva, and Swati Pandey (2023-09-27)

Ligaya Kelly worries her pet boarding facility on the outskirts of Los Angeles won’t survive the winter if loan costs keep rising. Economist Diana Mousina says she’ll have to sell her Sydney investment property if interest rates remain higher. John Stanyer has cut back plans for his holiday park in the north of England after his mortgage repayments almost tripled.

FORMER WIRECARD MAN MARSALEK NAMED IN RUSSIA SPY CASE

Finextra (2023-09-27)

Marsalek has been on the run from police since the collapse of Wirecard in 2020 after the discovery of massive €1.9 billion black hole in its accounts. He is believed to have fled to Moscow and taken shelter under the protection of the protection of Russian army intelligence unit the GRU.

BIS CHIEF CALLS ON COUNTRIES TO MODERNISE LEGAL FRAMEWORKS TO SUPPORT CBDCS

Finextra (2023-09-27)

According to an IMF paper published in 2021, close to 80% of central banks are either not allowed to issue a digital currency under their existing laws, or the legal framework is unclear.

BANK OF ENGLAND HALTS RUN OF INTEREST RATE HIKES

G&M - Video (2023-09-26)

The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Sept. 21 as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted.

HALF OF CANADA’S YOUNG ADULTS GAVE UP ON HOMEOWNERSHIP: MORTGAGE PROS

Better Dwelling (2023-09-26)

Canadians are losing hope when it comes to buying a home. Nearly half (48%) of non-homeowners surveyed don’t see themselves ever being able to buy a home. It’s a sharp increase of 15 points compared to just six months ago, as Canada remains near its worst level of affordability ever. 

MARKETS GIRD FOR HIGHER-FOR-LONGER RATES: MOODY’S

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-26)

“In our view, interest rates will remain high, and the Fed will not be in a hurry to cut rates out of an abundance of caution,” Moody’s noted.

EVERGRANDE SHARES SINK AFTER SAYING IT IS UNABLE TO ISSUE NEW DEBT

G&M (2023-09-25)

Shares of China Evergrande plunged as much as 24% on Monday after the embattled developer said it was unable to issue new debt due to an ongoing investigation into one of its subsidiaries, dealing a fresh blow to its restructuring plans. “In view of Hengda Real Estate Group Co Ltd, a principal subsidiary of the company, being investigated, the group is unable to meet the qualifications for the issuance of new notes under the present circumstances,” Evergrande said in a statement late on Sunday.

DEAR BOOMING CHINESE ECONOMY OF THE PAST: BYE-BYE, THE WEST SHAN’T MISS YOU

G&M - John Rapley (2023-09-25)

After a summer filled with speculation about China’s sinking economy, recent news lifted some of the gloom. In reports that came out mid-September, both factory output and retail sales turned back up. Cue the celebrations that China is back and will lift the world economy, as it did after the 2008 financial crisis.

WHY TRADERS AREN'T BUYING THE FED'S 'HIGHER-FOR-LONGER' VISION

Yahoo Finance - Ann Saphir (2023-09-25)

Meanwhile, interest rate futures contracts continue to price in only about a 50% chance of further tightening in 2023, and see a 4.65% policy rate by the end of next year.

NATIONAL BANK CEO WARNS OF HARSH 'NEW REALITY' FOR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE BORROWERS

FP - Christine Dobby and Mathieu Dion (2023-09-25)

CPP BOARD DISPUTES MATH BEHIND ALBERTA’S BID TO WITHDRAW FROM NATIONAL PENSION FUND

G&M - James Bradshaw, Carrie Tait (2023-09-22)

The Canada Pension Plan’s investment arm said Alberta’s claim that it could withdraw more than half of the national pension fund’s assets is based on “an invented formula” that is divorced from reality, sharply criticizing the math behind Premier Danielle Smith’s push to set up an alternative provincial pension system.

LOWEST FIXED AND VARIABLE MORTGAGE RATES IN CANADA FOR SEPTEMBER 21 2023

G&M (2023-09-22)

It was another week where Canada’s leading nationally advertised mortgage rates did absolutely nothing.", "Yet.", "Fixed rates are in imminent danger of climbing because of inflation chugging an energy drink and unexpectedly surging back to 4 per cent. .

U.S. FED HOLDS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE STEADY — BUT HINTS ANOTHER HIKE IS COMING

CBC (2023-09-22)

But from there the Fed's updated quarterly projections show rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared to the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June. With the federal funds rate falling to 5.1 per cent by the end of 2024 and 3.9 per cent by the end of 2025, the central bank's main measure of inflation is projected to drop to 3.3 per cent by the end of this year, to 2.5 per cent next year and to 2.2 per cent by the end of 2025.

ALBERTA DESERVES MORE THAN HALF CPP ASSETS IF IT EXITS PROGRAM: REPORT

Investment Executive (2023-09-22)

A third-party report compiled by consultant Lifeworks released Thursday calculates that if Alberta gave the required three-year notice to quit CPP next year, it would be entitled to $334 billion, or about 53%, of the national pension plan’s pool by 2027.

BOE RATE HIKE ON KNIFE EDGE AFTER INFLATION FALL

Bloomberg - Lucy White and Greg Ritchie (2023-09-21)

Bank of England policy makers will decide on Thursday whether to call a halt to a string of 14 consecutive interest-rate increases, with investors and handful of economists raising doubts about another hike.

ONTARIO REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY WANTS STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS…FOR DOWNPAYMENTS

Better Dwelling (2023-09-21)

Key findings include insights on outstanding credit and home-buying intentions. Students with more than $5,000 in student debt tend to claim the debt makes it difficult to save for a home. Students with debt hold about $14,500 on average, and most plan to repay it within 5 years. 

BANK OF CANADA WATCHING ITS WORDS TO AVOID RATE CUT SPECULATION, SUMMARY REVEALS

Investment Executive (2023-09-21)

Though the latest inflation reading shows price growth heading in the wrong direction, the central bank is also keeping an eye on other economic indicators.

CANADA’S INFLATION RATE RISES TO 4% IN AUGUST, PUTTING PRESSURE ON BOC

G&M (2023-09-20)

Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated sharply for the second month in a row, raising the odds that the Bank of Canada could deliver at least one more interest rate increase this year despite hitting pause on monetary policy tightening earlier this month.

ANNUAL PACE OF HOUSING STARTS IN CANADA DOWN 1% IN AUGUST

G&M (2023-09-20)

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in Canada edged down one per cent in August compared with July.

HOW RECHIE VALDEZ WENT FROM BANKER TO BAKER TO SMALL BUSINESS MINISTER

G&M - Governance (2023-09-20)

In early 2020, Rechie Valdez made a decision. She would leave the banking industry, where she had worked for more than 15 years, to focus full time on her small business: baking desserts and wedding cakes.

WANT A THREE PERCENT MORTGAGE RATE? GIVE ASSUMABLE MORTGAGES A LOOK

Yahoo Finance - Eyek Ntekim and Akiko Fujita (2023-09-20)

Roam CEO Raunaq Singh suggests buyers and sellers take a look at assumable loans. Assumable loans, according to Singh, are loans in which the buyers "take over the interest rate that the seller currently has." In other words, the rates that the seller paid are the same rates the new buyer will pay. This, according to Singh allow for more affordability and increases opportunities for sellers. Roam takes 1% of purchase price from each sale made through their site.

FORMER U.S. CONGRESSMAN GETS JAIL FOR INSIDER TRADING

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-09-20)

According to evidence presented in court, Buyer traded with advance knowledge of the 2018 merger of telecom giants Sprint Corp. and T-Mobile US Inc. after learning of the planned deal from T-Mobile executives.

HOUSING MARKET SLOWS IN AUGUST, REPORTED PRICE DECLINES EXAGGERATES WEAKNESS

Central 1 - Brian Yu (2023-09-19)

The combination of rate hikes, fi nancial stress, and uncertainty are curbing household demand for real estate, but declining sales were not universal among provinces. British Columbia, which is more interest rate sensitive given high household debt and high home values, recorded a 10.7 per cent plunge in sales which was the steepest among provinces and pushed sales to the lowest level since March. Ontario (-6.2 per cent) and Quebec (-4.9 per cent) also reported signifi cant declines.

WHY THE BANK OF CANADA PAUSE WON'T SAVE THE HOUSING MARKET THIS TIME

Yahoo Finance - Pamela Heaven (2023-09-19)

Now new listings are surging back to historic norms, up 5.5 per cent in August from last year, and there’s a record number of homes under construction that will make their way onto the market, he said.

CANADIAN NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION PULLS BACK, EXPECTED TO PULL BACK FURTHER

Better Dwelling (2023-09-19)

Canada has seen the new housing construction starts take a dip on the back of weak demand. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new home starts fell 1% to 253k units in July. Construction starts for urban housing fell 1%, with urban multi-unit construction falling 1.4%, pulling down the 1.7% increase when it came to single-detached urban starts. 

CANADA'S HOUSING CRISIS WILL TAKE YEARS TO SOLVE -FINANCE MINISTER

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-18)

An affordable housing crisis that is hurting the Canadian government's popularity will take years to resolve, even if construction hits an 80-year high, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Saturday.

'EVERYBODY SHOULD JUST SHUT UP': BANK OF CANADA'S INDEPENDENCE UNDER PRESSURE FROM POLITICAL COMMENTS

FP - Gigi Suhanic (2023-09-18)

The Bank of Canada is supposed to be free from government interference, but elected officials have become more vocal about interest rates, inflation and the effect on their citizens, leaving some experts fretting about the central bank’s independence when it comes to monetary policy.

HOME PRICES LEVELLING OFF AS SALES SLOW, LISTINGS REBOUND: CREA

FP - Denise Paglanawan (2023-09-18)

Average home prices rose slightly in August, up 0.4 per cent, while sales slowed and new listings returned to more normal levels, a sign that demand and supply are continuing to come into better balance, according to monthly data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

MEET THE WOMAN VYING TO TAKE THE REINS OF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMY

Bloomberg - Ainsley Thomson (2023-09-18)

In practice debates before previous New Zealand elections, Nicola Willis used to play the role of formidable female politicians.

BUSINESSES TO GET EXTRA TIME TO PAY BACK CEBA LOANS, TRUDEAU ANNOUNCES

G&M - Chris Hannay (2023-09-15)

The federal government says it is extending the final repayment deadline for Canada Emergency Business Account loans by one year, though the relief has received a mixed response from small-enterprise groups that say the specifics are insufficient.

NO DECISION ON EIB PRESIDENCY EXPECTED THIS WEEK - GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER

Reuters (2023-09-15)

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said at the informal EU finance ministers meeting on Friday that a decision is not expected this week on who will become European Investment Bank (EIB) president.

A CENTRAL BANK BONANZA

Reuters (2023-09-15)

Central banks take centre stage with five of those overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies - including the U.S. Federal Reserve - holding rate-setting meetings, plus a swathe of emerging market ones as well.

CANADIANS FACE 40 YEARS OF STAGNANT INCOMES – GOVERNMENT’S ECONOMIC STRATEGY IS FAILING

G&M (2023-09-14)

In the five years to 2019, Canada’s real per capita growth was an anemic 0.5 per cent per annum. Since 2019, it has been the fifth-weakest of 38 OECD countries – and per capita GDP growth has even turned negative over the past year.

BANK OF CANADA IS BLEEDING THE ECONOMY, JUST LIKE 19TH-CENTURY DOCTORS BLED PATIENTS

G&M (2023-09-14)

In the 19th century, before scientists understood the causes of most acute and chronic diseases, doctors routinely treated illness by bleeding their patients. Using an array of gruesome techniques (from deliberate wounds to the application of leeches), clinicians thought they could restore a patient’s health by eliminating impure blood.

US BANKS SAY REGULATORS BROKE LAW AS FIGHT OVER PROPOSED CAPITAL RULES ESCALATES

Reuters - Pete Schroeder (2023-09-13)

U.S. bank groups on Tuesday accused the Federal Reserve and other regulators of violating federal laws with a sweeping proposal to raise capital requirements, escalating an assault on the draft rules that were also blasted by bank executives.

US LOOKS TO OFFLOAD $13 BLN OF MORTGAGE BONDS SEIZED FROM SVB, SIGNATURE - BLOOMBERG NEWS

Reuters (2023-09-13)

The bonds were part of the $114 billion of assets that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) picked up when it took over SVB and Signature earlier this year, according to the report, which added the bonds were backed by long-term, low-rate loans made primarily to developers building affordable apartments.

THE GREENBELT SCANDAL ISN’T ABOUT HOUSING. IT ISN’T EVEN ABOUT THE GREENBELT

G&M (2023-09-12)

Since 1995, Transparency International, an organization that describes itself as “the global coalition against corruption,” has been compiling its annual data.

THERE'S NOW A BANK OF CANADA NUMBER FOR CARBON TAX'S IMPACT ON INFLATION. IT'S SMALL

CBC (2023-09-12)

Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have made much sport of arguing the Trudeau Liberals' tool to fight climate change has severely affected the affordability of fuel, groceries and other goods. While the Opposition party has never put a number on it, the figure has never appeared to be as rhetorically small as Macklem put it.

BOE’S NEW DEPUTY GOVERNOR SAYS UK FACES TWO-YEAR STAGNATION

Bloomberg - Tom Rees, Lucy White (2023-09-12)

Sarah Breeden, the nominee to be Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability, warned that over-zealous monetary tightening could cause an unnecessary recession.

BANK OF CANADA'S TIFF MACKLEM EXPLAINS WHY WE'RE NOT IN A RECESSION, WHILE HOLDING LINE ON INTEREST RATES

FP - Chris Varcoe (2023-09-11)

BANK OF CANADA IS NOT TRANSPARENT OR ACCOUNTABLE ENOUGH ON MONETARY POLICY

G&M (2023-09-08)

Canadians and the financial markets are often nervous on the day the Governor of the Bank of Canada announces the key interest rate. Not surprising, given the financial consequences for people’s wallets and the impact of this decision on the economy.

"BANK OF CANADA’S TIFF MACKLEM SAYS INFLATION TARGET ‘NOW IN SIGHT,’ BUT DOESN’T RULE OUT MORE RATE HIKES

G&M (2023-09-08)

"Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank’s 2-per-cent inflation target “is now in sight” and that interest rates “may be sufficiently restrictive,” but warned that his team could raise rates again if consumer price growth remains stubborn.

"BANK OF CANADA HOLDS ITS KEY INTEREST RATE STEADY AT 5%. HERE’S WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

G&M (2023-09-07)

"In a statement, published shortly after the rate announcement, Ms. Freeland said the decision was a “welcome relief for Canadians.”

RBC CEO SAYS INTEREST RATES TO COME DOWN NEXT YEAR, ALLOWING FOR SOFT LANDING

FP - Christine Dobby (2023-09-07)

FED’S CHRISTOPHER WALLER SAYS RECENT DATA GIVE U.S. CENTRAL BANK SPACE TO DECIDE NEXT RATE MOVE

G&M (2023-09-06)

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday the latest round of economic data was giving the U.S. central bank space to see if it needs to raise interest rates again, while noting that he currently sees nothing that would force a move toward boosting the cost of short-term borrowing again.

FORMER TOP BANKER SAYS PREMIERS ARE 'GRANDSTANDING' ON INTEREST RATE HIKES

CBC - Tanya Fletcher (2023-09-06)

Furey's office released a letter to Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem in which the premier called on the bank to "more fully consider the negative impacts" interest rate hikes are having on Canadians and to forgo another rate hike "at this time." The bank is expected to announce its next rate decision on Wednesday.

BANK OF CANADA TO ANNOUNCE INTEREST RATE DECISION THIS MORNING

Yahoo Finance (2023-09-06)

Canada's inflation rate ticked up to 3.3 per cent in July year-over-year, but economists say cracks emerging in the economy will likely sway the central bank against further rate hikes.

BANK OF CANADA POISED TO HOLD RATES AT 5% BUT THREATEN MORE HIKES

Bloomberg - Eerik Hertzberg (2023-09-06)

The Bank of Canada is likely to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday as policymakers consider whether a slowing economy means it’s time to end its historic campaign to tighten policy.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES STEADY AS ECONOMY STALLS

G&M (2023-09-05)

The Bank of Canada is expected to pause its monetary policy tightening campaign this week, weighing stubborn inflation data against growing evidence that the Canadian economy has begun to stall.

FALLING JOB VACANCIES COULD EASE PRESSURE ON BANK OF CANADA

FP - Randy Thanthong-Knight and Erik Hertzberg (2023-09-01)

CANADIAN ECONOMISTS PREDICT STEADY INTEREST RATES, FALLING HOME PRICES IN 2023

G&M (2023-08-31)

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its key interest rate steady at 5.00 per cent on Sept. 6 and stay at that level through at least the end of March, 2024, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, with a small but growing minority expecting one more rate rise.

BOE CHIEF ECONOMIST SAYS RATES MUST STAY ‘SUFFICIENTLY HIGH’ FOR SOME TIME

Yahoo Finance - Lucy White and Tom Rees (2023-08-31)

Huw Pill, speaking at the South African Central Reserve Bank biennial conference in Cape Town, said there were multiple paths that monetary policy could take in order to get inflation back to the 2% target.

WILL TRUDEAU’S GOVERNMENT BREACH THE DAVID DODGE RULE?

FP - Theo Argitis (2023-08-31)

The sharp escalation of global bond yields in recent weeks raises the prospect we may be in the middle of a structural shift to a world of permanently higher borrowing costs.

GROUP PULLS OUT OF OTTAWA’S PLAN TO SELL TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE STAKES TO INDIGENOUS OWNERS

G&M (2023-08-29)

The federal government’s plan to sell at least part of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project to Indigenous owners has entered a new stage, with Ottawa indicating it’s prepared to provide financial backing to First Nations and Métis communities to help them acquire ownership stakes in the pipeline, and one group that had been pursuing a stake leaving the field.

JEROME POWELL'S JACKSON HOLE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS CENTRAL BANK'S UPHILL BATTLE TO REIN IN INFLATION

CBC - Don Pittis (2023-08-29)

Anyone looking for firm direction from the world's most powerful central banker in his much-anticipated speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will inevitably be disappointed.

AT JACKSON HOLE, POST-INFLATION CHALLENGES VEX CENTRAL BANKERS

Yahoo Finance - Matthew Boesler, Catarina Saraiva and Alexander Weber (2023-08-28)

Powell, in his speech, remained vague about whether the Fed would lift its benchmark rate again, though he warned that “additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.”

NO REAL FIX TO THE SHARP RISE IN PUBLIC DEBT LOADS, ECONOMISTS SAY

Reuters - Ann Saphir (2023-08-28)

The steep jump in public debt loads over the past decade and a half, as governments borrowed large amounts of money to battle the Global Financial Crisis and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, is probably irreversible.

AT JACKSON HOLE, POST-INFLATION CHALLENGES VEX CENTRAL BANKERS

Bloomberg - Matthew Boesler, Catarina Saraiva, and Alexander Weber (2023-08-28)

The world’s top central bankers stressed the need to keep interest rates high until inflation is contained — and wrestled with deeper economic shifts that will make their jobs harder.

PUTIN AND OTHER LEADERS LOCKED IN DISCUSSIONS OVER EXPANSION OF BRICS ECONOMIC BLOC

G&M (2023-08-24)

The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa held closed-door discussions Wednesday on the possible expansion of their BRICS economic bloc, a move they’ve framed as a way to amplify the voice of developing nations, but which also serves the geopolitical interests of Beijing and Moscow.

MASTERCARD LAUNCHES CBDC PARTNER PROGRAMME

Finextra (2023-08-23)

In 2020, Mastercard built a virtual testing platform to help central banks assess and explore national digital currencies. Since then the firm has worked with several central banks on pilots.

ONTARIO TO PROVIDE $1.2-BILLION IN INCENTIVES, EXPAND STRONG MAYOR POWERS TO ACHIEVE HOUSING TARGETS

G&M (2023-08-22)

Ontario is offering $1.2-billion over three years to municipalities as an incentive to achieve annual housing targets, while also offering to extend the strong mayor powers to more local governments.

TRUDEAU CABINET TO MEET AS MORE CANADIANS BLAME GOVERNMENT FOR INFLATION

Yahoo Finance - Laura Dhillon Kane (2023-08-22)

While headline inflation was 3.3% in July, food prices were up 7.8% and the central bank’s aggressive hikes mean mortgage interest costs have spiked 30.6%. Record levels of immigration have exacerbated a housing supply shortage, helping boost the benchmark home price to C$754,800 (about $558,000).

,BANK OF CANADA STUCK WONDERING WHY INTEREST RATE HIKES HAVE NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO TAME INFLATION

G&M (2023-08-17)

In the ways that matter most, the July inflation figures did,That’s th,

CHINA TOLD STATE BANKS TO ESCALATE YUAN INTERVENTION THIS WEEK

Yahoo Finance (2023-08-17)

Senior officials are also considering the use of tools such as cutting banks’ foreign-exchange reserve requirements to prevent a rapid depreciation in the currency, said the people. The request came as the yuan fell toward 7.35 per dollar, a level that top leadership has been paying close attention to, they added.

MORE RATE HIKES MAY BE NEEDED TO BRING DOWN STILL HIGH INFLATION: FED MINUTES

FP - Christopher Rugaber (2023-08-17)

According to the minutes, the Fed’s policymakers also felt that despite signs of progress on inflation, it remained well above their two per cent target. They “would need to see more data … to be confident that inflation pressures were abating” and on track to return to their target.

CHINA'S STATE BANKS SEEN SELLING DOLLARS FOR YUAN IN LONDON AND NEW YORK HOURS

Reuters (2023-08-17)

China's major state-owned banks were seen busy selling U.S. dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore spot foreign exchange markets this week, people with direct knowledge of the matter said, in an attempt to slow the yuan's depreciation.

FED CHAIR POWELL TO GIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SPEECH AT JACKSON HOLE

G&M (2023-08-17)

Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a talk on the economic outlook on Aug. 25 at the central bankers’ confab held each year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming by the Kansas City Fed, the U.S. central bank said on Thursday.,The speech, set for 10:05 a.m. ET, will provide a chance to give his latest views on whether more policy tightening will be needed to bring down inflation amid surprisingly strong economic growth, or if enough progress on disinflation has been made to hold rates steady.

WITH INFLATION SOARING AT 113%, ARGENTINA SHOULD MOTHBALL ITS CENTRAL BANK AND DOLLARIZE, TOP ECONOMIST STEVE HANKE SAYS

Yahoo Finance - Zahra Tayeb (2023-08-17)

"In Argentina, official inflation has hit 113%/yr. STILL TOO LOW. I accurately measure inflation at a whopping 139%/yr ~1.2x the official rate. The solution: mothball the central bank and DOLLARIZE!" Hanke said in a Wednesday post on X.

FED MEETING MINUTES COULD HINT AT END OF RATE HIKES

Yahoo Finance - Howard Schneider (2023-08-16)

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month may indicate on Wednesday how many policymakers feel the U.S. central bank is done raising interest rates and whether possible risks to the economy from the aggressive monetary tightening have taken on more weight in their debate.

ARGENTINE PESO TO SLIDE 70% BY NEXT YEAR, BOFA SAYS

Yahoo Finance - Kerim Karakaya (2023-08-16)

The official exchange rate will weaken to 545 per dollar for the end of this year and then slump to 1,193 by the end of 2024, as the bank’s strategists expect the winner of the country’s presidential elections to further devalue the peso starting in December.

RTGS AND CHAPS BACK ONLINE AFTER SIX-HOUR OUTAGE

Finextra (2023-08-15)

In March 2019, the central bank was hauled over the coals by a Common Select Committee in a searing critique of its outmoded technology estate, culture and procurement activities.

RUSSIAN RUBLE VALUE PLUNGES TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE EARLY DAYS OF UKRAINE INVASION

CBC (2023-08-15)

Analysts say the weakening of the ruble is being driven by increased defense spending — leading imports to rise — and falling exports, particularly in the oil and natural gas sector. Importing more and exporting less means a smaller trade surplus, which typically weighs on a country's currency.

UK WATCHDOG KICKS OFF 'POLITICALLY-EXPOSED PERSONS' REVIEW

Reuters - Huw Jones (2023-08-15)

Britain's Financial Conduct Authority said on Monday it will ask lawmakers to report any problems they have opening or maintaining a bank account ahead of a formal investigation.

BANK OF CANADA PAPER CASTS DOUBT ON CBDC VALUE

Finextra (2023-08-14)

Canada's central bank has spent the last few years carrying out research into a digital loonie and what design features would be relevant to citizens with diverse payment needs and circumstances.

DOUG FORD IS TRYING TO GASLIGHT VOTERS ABOUT WHAT HE DID IN THE GREENBELT

G&M - Tony Keller (2023-08-11)

Toronto, on Wednesday, Aug. 9, at 11 a.m.,that’s when Ontario Auditor-General Bonnie Lysyk released her report on the greenbelt, surrounding Toronto. She found that the process for opening 7,400 acres of protected land to developers last year “was not transparent, fair, objective, or fully informed,” involved “certain prominent developers receiving preferential treatment” and “cannot be described as a standard or defensible process.”

RUSSIA'S ECONOMY TAKES A HIT AS ITS CURRENT-ACCOUNT SURPLUS CRASHES 85% COMPARED TO LAST YEAR

Yahoo Finance - Phil Rosen (2023-08-11)

Those energy revenues, however, have since tumbled, down 41% year-over-year for the first seven months of 2023. The latest data show Russia's current account is now at $25.2 billion, which reflects the heavy toll that war and Western sanctions have had on the economy.

BANK OF ENGLAND RECRUITS ACADEMICS TO ADVISE ON DIGITAL POUND DESIGN

Finextra (2023-08-11)

In a statement, the Bank says: "In February 2023, the Bank of England and HM Treasury jointly issued a Consultation Paper setting out an assessment of the motivations and design choices for a potential digital pound. While no decision has been made, that paper signalled that the digital pound is likely to be needed in the future, so our work will now move onto a 'design phase'.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU AND THE LEFT’S NEW HYPOCRISY TOWARD THE BANK OF CANADA IS DANGEROUS

G&M - Karamveer Lalh (2023-08-08)

About a year ago, in the context of the federal Conservative leadership race, Mr. Trudeau was quick to imply that then-candidate Pierre Poilievre’s commitment to fire Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada for failing to keep inflation in check was irresponsible and undermined the institution’s independence.

WHY THE BANK OF CANADA’S POLICY POSITION COULD HAVE CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

G&M - James Thorne (2023-08-04)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is teetering on the edge of a potentially disastrous policy mistake. The inflation shock is now over. Inflation rates have declined dramatically during the past year, and there’s no solid evidence to suggest Canada’s economy is overheating. The central bank is now at a point at which it must adopt a monetary policy that’s independent of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

DEBT-BURDENED WORLD LEADERS JUST LOVE TO HATE RATINGS COMPANIES

Yahoo Finance - Matthew Boesler, Craig Stirling (2023-08-04)

Rich-world peers from Italy to France and the UK are in the spotlight as higher interest rates impact debt levels exceeding 100% of annual output. Stakes are even higher for capital-hungry developing nations, where potentially ill-timed, negative revisions can push up borrowing costs for years.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU AND SOPHIE GRéGOIRE TRUDEAU ANNOUNCE SEPARATION

CBC - Aaron Wherry (2023-08-03)

According to a statement from the Prime Minister's Office, Trudeau and Grégoire Trudeau have "signed a legal separation agreement."

WALL ST FUTURES TUMBLE AFTER FITCH DOWNGRADES TOP-TIER US RATING

Yahoo Finance (2023-08-02)

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years as well as a growing general government debt burden, making it the second major rating agency after Standard & Poor's move in 2011 to strip the country of its triple-A rating.

EGYPT CURRENCY SQUEEZE SINKS BANK FOREIGN BUFFERS TO NEW LOW

Yahoo Finance - Mirette Magdy (2023-08-02)

The gap among lenders reached $17.1 billion, compared with $14.5 billion in May, according to data released by the central bank. The shortfall opened up as a result of a $1.7 billion drop in banks’ assets and an around $950 million increase in their liabilities.

OTTAWA REWARDS FAILURE WITH TAXPAYER-FUNDED BONUSES

FP - Franco Terrazzano (2023-08-01)

Bonuses are for people who excel at their job, not for people who fail at their job. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is ultimately the federal government’s paymaster, needs to be reminded of that.

ONE BIG GOLD SELLER AMONG CENTRAL BANKS HAS EVEN MORE TO OFFLOAD

Yahoo Finance - Nariman Gizitdnov (2023-07-31)

Alongside its counterparts in Turkey and Uzbekistan, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has emerged among the institutions that have contributed to a second straight quarter of decline in bullion purchases from central banks, whose buying accounted for nearly a quarter of global gold demand last year.

INFLATION, HOUSEHOLDS AREN’T CUTTING BACK THE WAY CENTRAL BANKERS WANTED

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-07-30)

TD REPORT PREDICTS HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND AN AFFORDABILITY CRISIS

G&M - Jason Kirby (2023-07-28)

If Canada’s population boom continues at its current frantic pace, interest rates will face upward pressure and the massive influx of people will significantly worsen affordability for homebuyers and renters, a new report from TD Bank warns.

GLOBAL BONDS SLIP AS JAPAN LOOSENS GRIP ON YIELDS: MARKETS WRAP

Bloomberg - SUJATA RAO (2023-07-28)

Bonds around the world fell as the Bank of Japan, the only major central bank not to have begun reversing ultra-easy monetary policy, surprised investors by loosening its control of market rates.

ECB HIKES INTEREST RATES AND LEAVES DOOR OPEN TO MORE

Investment Executive - David McHugh (2023-07-28)

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was similarly noncommittal about whether more rate increases might be coming after the Fed on Wednesday raised its key rate for the 11th time in 17 months.

TRUDEAU UNVEILS SIGNIFICANT CABINET SHUFFLE WITH SEVERAL NEW MINISTERS BROUGHT ON BOARD

G&M - Laura Stone, Kristy Kirkup (2023-07-27)

Mr. Trudeau, in explaining the massive shakeup, promised to place a greater emphasis on the economy and housing, for the “millions of Canadians who are struggling.”

U.S. CENTRAL BANK RAISES INTEREST RATES AGAIN, TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2001

CBC (2023-07-27)

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate for the 11th time in 17 months on Wednesday, leaving the door open to another increase as the central bank shows how serious it is about getting inflation back to two per cent.

BOC MINDFUL OF NOT OVERDOING RATE HIKES, SUMMARY OF DELIBERATIONS REVEALS

Yahoo Finance (2023-07-27)

"If policy is not restrictive enough to bring inflation to target on a reasonable timetable, there is a risk that rates will have to be increased by even more later. If policy is simply taking longer to work ... over-tightening risks making economic conditions more painful than necessary," the summary says.

BIG INTEREST RATE CUTS AHEAD FROM THE BANK OF CANADA IF 2001 IS ANY INDICATION

FP - Ted Rechtshaffen (2023-07-27)

The central bank now forecasts the consumer price inflation (CPI) index will return to two per cent in mid-2025. If this two-year prediction causes you concern that policymakers won’t be lowering rates for two years, fear not. It is quite amazing that they feel confident in making a prediction for two years out. Keep in mind that only 18 months ago, the overnight rate was still 0.25 per cent.
As 2000 turned to 2001, the Bank of Canada’s rate was at six per cent. It is 5.25 per cent today. Back then, real gross domestic product (GDP) was growing by 4.7 per cent and employment was rising by 2.6 per cent. Higher energy prices were boosting exports. There was growth in employment and wages and, together with tax cuts, this grew consumer spending.

OSFI CONSULTS ON CRYPTO RULES FOR BANKS, INSURERS

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-07-27)

The regulator said the new guidance, which will take effect in the fiscal first quarter of 2025, is designed to “reflect an evolving risk environment and international developments.”

BANK OF CANADA PUBLISHES ITS 2024 SCHEDULE FOR POLICY INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENTS AND OTHER MAJOR PUBLICATIONS

BOC (2023-07-27)

Rates

• Wednesday, September 6
• Wednesday, October 25*
• Wednesday, December 6
• Wednesday, January 24*
• Wednesday, March 6
• Wednesday, April 10*
• Wednesday, June 5
• Wednesday, July 24*
• Wednesday, September 4
• Wednesday, October 23*
• Wednesday, December 11

• Monday, January 15
• Monday, April 1
• Monday, July 15
• Friday, October 11

NATWEST BANK CEO OUSTED AFTER FUROR OVER POLITICIAN NIGEL FARAGE'S BANK ACCOUNT

Yahoo Finance (2023-07-26)

Farage, a skilled seeker of attention and generator of outrage, accused the bank of stomping on his freedom of speech, and some members of the Conservative government echoed his concerns.

BANK OF CANADA SEEN HOLDING RATES AT 5% AS ECONOMY AVOIDS HARD LANDING

FP - Randy Thanthong-Knight and Sarina Yoo (2023-07-26)

POWELL HAS STOPPED HANDING GIFTS TO WALL STREET ON FED DAY

Bloomberg - Ye Xie, and Matthew Boesler (2023-07-26)

In what was a brutal 2022 for investors, there was at least one sure-fire, money-making proposition for much of the year. All they had to do was buy stocks and bonds seconds before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell began speaking at his post-FOMC press conference and dump them as he was wrapping up.

MARKET PARTICIPANTS SURVEY—SECOND QUARTER OF 2023

BOC (2023-07-26)

The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants. You can view the latest quarterly data here.

KEY QUESTION AS FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS: CAN THE U.S. CENTRAL BANK PULL OFF A DIFFICULT ‘SOFT LANDING’?

G&M - Christopher Rugaber (2023-07-25)

When Chair Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials gather this week for their latest decision on interest rates, they will do so on the cusp of achieving an elusive “soft landing” – the feat of curbing inflation without causing a deep recession.

WE'RE SICK AND TIRED OF WOKE COMPANIES TELLING US WE'RE EVIL

Talk TV (2023-07-25)

This week Coutts bank, my own bank, was exposed for terminating Nigel Farage’s account because of his divisive opinions and his stance on Brexit.

WHY THE WORLD NEEDS MORE FEMALE CENTRAL BANKERS

Bloomberg - Andreea Papuc (2023-07-24)

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, perhaps the world’s most well-known female central banker since Janet Yellen led the Federal Reserve, spoke candidly earlier this year about being surrounded by men her entire career. Diversity would produce better results, she said.

RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK HIKES RATES 100 BASIS POINTS AS UKRAINE WAR SPARKS RUBLE CRASH AND LABOR CRISIS

Yahoo Finance - Filip De Mott (2023-07-21)

It marked the first increase since the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion early last year. Rates are now going up 100 basis points to 8.5% from 7.5%, as policymakers cited inflationary pressure from the ruble's recent slide and worker shortages.

CHINA'S STATE BANKS SEEN SELLING DOLLARS OFFSHORE TO SLOW YUAN DECLINES

Reuters (2023-07-20)

China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars to buy yuan in the offshore spot market in early Asian trades on Thursday, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

OSFI DEFERS LIQUIDITY GUIDANCE FOR HIGH-INTEREST SAVINGS ETFS

Investment Executive (2023-07-20)

Instead of expecting banks to adhere to current liquidity guidance on Aug. 1, OSFI said it expects to issue further guidance in October, and banks will be expected to align with any changes by January 2024.

NATWEST APOLOGISES TO NIGEL FARAGE OVER ACCOUNT CLOSURES, REPORTERS SAY

Reuters (2023-07-20)

British bank NatWest has apologised to former Brexit party leader Nigel Farage for the handling of the closure of his accounts with its private banking arm Coutts, according to two reporters citing copies of the letter on Twitter.

CANADA’S INFLATION RATE FALLS TO 2.8 PER CENT BUT LONG ROAD AHEAD TO PRICE STABILITY

G&M - Matt Lundy (2023-07-19)

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.8 per cent in June from a year earlier, down from May’s 3.4-per-cent pace, Statistics Canada said Tuesday in a report. This was the lowest inflation rate since March, 2021, and it was below the 3-per-cent reading analysts had expected.

ECB TO PUSH BANKS FOR WEEKLY LIQUIDITY DATA AS SCRUTINY GROWS

Yahoo Finance - Nicholas Comfort and Steven Arons (2023-07-19)

The ECB proposes to ask lenders to report data on their liquidity reserves on a weekly basis, breaking out funding by maturity and type of client, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private.

IF THE PROVINCES WANT TRADE COMPETITIVENESS, THEY SHOULD START WITH THEIR INTERPROVINCIAL BACKYARDS

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2023-07-17)

At the conclusion of last week’s summit of premiers in Winnipeg, the leaders of our nation’s provinces talked a good game about the need for co-operation “to achieve Canada’s full economic potential.”

PETER ROUTLEDGE, SUPERINTENDENT OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SHARES HOW OSFI IS WORKING TO ENCOURAGE GOOD GOVERNANCE, STARLING TRUST PAPER

OSFI (2023-07-17)

Following the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, OSFI saw a clear need for improvement in board effectiveness. A focus on the roles and responsibilities of boards of directors was an important first step towards strong corporate governance. To address the problem, OSFI revised its Corporate Governance Guideline in January 2013 (originally published in 2003). With this revision, OSFI elevated its expectations for corporate governance effectiveness to promote enhanced focus on sound prudential oversight by Boards of Directors in the Canadian federal financial system.

BANK OF CANADA WARY OF SIGNS OF A TURNING POINT IN ECONOMY, AS IT HIKES KEY INTEREST RATE AGAIN

CBC - Don Pittis (2023-07-14)

"We deal in a lot of aggregate numbers and averages, but we know that inflation and interest rates affect people very differently," Rogers said. "In particular, we know ... that the most vulnerable Canadians are the ones that are hurt most both by inflation and by higher interest rates."

BANK OF CANADA DEPLOYING FORECAST ‘FICTION,’ SCOTIABANK ECONOMIST SAYS

Bloomberg (2023-07-14)

The Bank of Canada is using its economic forecasts to try to prevent medium-term rates from falling too much and stoking more housing market speculation, according to a top economist.

BANK OF CANADA RAISES ITS KEY INTEREST RATE TO 5%, THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 22 YEARS. HERE’S WHAT’S NEXT

G&M - MARK RENDELL AND DAVID PARKINSON (2023-07-13)

Here is how economists on Bay Street reacted to the latest Bank of Canada rate hike:

WORLD BANK NAMES CEOS TO HELP BRING PRIVATE FUNDS TO CLIMATE, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE

Reuters - David Lawder (2023-07-11)

The World Bank on Monday named 15 chief executive officers including financiers and asset managers to a group launched by the lender's president, Ajay Banga, aiming to marshal more private capital to combat climate change and boost investment in developing countries.

NIGEL FARAGE AND THE GREAT ANTI-BREXIT UNBANKING PLOT

Politico - IZABELLA KAMINSKA AND DAN BLOOM (2023-07-11)

The rules recommend that any “individual who is entrusted with prominent public functions, other than as a middle-ranking or more junior official” be exposed to enhanced due diligence standards. That ensnares a wide catchment of political appointees, MPs and members of the House of Lords — along with their “family members” and “known close associates."

TWENTY-FOUR CENTRAL BANKS WILL HAVE DIGITAL CURRENCIES BY 2030 - BIS SURVEY

Yahoo Finance - Karin Strohecker (2023-07-10)

Most of the new Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will emerge in the retail space, where eleven central banks could join peers in the Bahamas, the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Nigeria which already run live digital retail currencies, the BIS found in its survey of 86 central banks conducted late 2022.

AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK LEAVES ITS BENCHMARK CASH RATE AT 4.1% BUT WARNS THERE MAY BE FURTHER HIKES

Yahoo Finance (2023-07-04)

“Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable time-frame, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve,” Lowe said in a statement.

WHY ARE INTEREST RATE RISES NOT TAMING INFLATION?

FT - Chris Giles, Valentina Romei and Alan Smith (2023-07-04)

Central banks have been raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1990s, but the most severe bout of inflation in a generation is yet to be tamed.

CHINA’S PBOC STICKS WITH YUAN SUPPORT AS CURRENCY LOSSES DEEPEN

Bloomberg (2023-06-30)

The central bank set its so-called fixing for the managed currency at a stronger-than-expected level on Friday, after the offshore yuan extended a seven-month low. The move came after reports that regulators have stepped up scrutiny of currency trading and cross-border capital flows, in a bid to stabilize the yuan.

BNP FACES QUESTIONS IN WASHINGTON OVER CHINA DIGITAL YUAN WORK

Yahoo Finance - Ambereen Choudhury, Alexandre Rajbhandari and Daniel Flatley (2023-06-30)

Attention on the state-backed digital currency rose in Washington when Beijing piloted the tender at the 2022 Winter Olympics. Yet concerns that the currency could eventually supplant or bypass the US financial system, not China’s domestic use, are rankling some American officials. Republican lawmakers have been the most vocal.

FED'S POWELL: MOST US POLICYMAKERS SEE TWO OR MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD

Yahoo Finance (2023-06-29)

"We made this decision in light of the distance we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags in monetary policy, and the potential headwinds from credit tightening," Powell said.

INFLATION SLOWS TO 3.4%, BUT BANK OF CANADA POISED TO HIKE RATES AGAIN

G&M - Matt Lundy (2023-06-28)

The May inflation numbers benefited from favourable comparisons with a year ago, otherwise known as base-year effects. Commodity prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, but those initial effects are no longer part of the year-over-year calculation of consumer price inflation.

XI VOW TO PROTECT FOREIGN INVESTORS RAMPS UP CHARM OFFENSIVE

Yahoo Finance (2023-06-28)

“We will continue to vigorously promote high-level opening up and better protect the rights and interests of foreign investors per the law,” Xi said, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

BMO STRATEGIST ON HOUSING: ‘IF THE MOST INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE PART OF THE ECONOMY ISN’T BUCKLING ... THEN POLICY RATES LIKELY AREN’T HIGH ENOUGH’

G&M - Scott Barlow (2023-06-27)

“The beat goes on with another strong run of Canadian data. This time it was retail sales, with April spending climbing 1.1 per cent. Most of that gain was due to higher prices, as volumes were up a modest 0.3 per cent, but it doesn’t change the fact that consumers appear to be more than willing to spend, spend, spend! …

SHOPIFY TO FIGHT CRA REQUEST FOR SIX YEARS OF MERCHANT TAX RECORDS: CEO

Yahoo Finance (2023-06-27)

Asked about what it is trying to ascertain from Shopify's records, the CRA said it uses information obtained through "unnamed persons requirements to identify taxpayers that may have been non-compliant and verifies that they have appropriately reported their income and have satisfied their filing obligations."

PUTIN FACES HISTORIC THREAT TO ABSOLUTE GRIP ON POWER IN RUSSIA

Bloomberg (2023-06-26)

Vladimir Putin managed to avert an attack on Moscow with an eleventh-hour deal with his mutinous mercenary commander. But the uprising has pierced his aura of total political control over Russia unlike any other event in his nearly quarter century in power.

RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER MAKES 1ST PUBLIC APPEARANCE SINCE ABORTED MERCENARY REVOLT

CBC (2023-06-26)

The rebellion ended on Saturday when Prigozhin ordered his troops back. The Kremlin said it had made a deal that the mercenary chief will move to Belarus and receive an amnesty, along with his soldiers. The mutiny marked the biggest challenge to President Vladimir Putin in more than 20 years of rule.

A HUGE HUMILIATION’: FAILED PUTSCH EXPOSES DEEP FLAWS IN PUTIN’S REGIME

FT - Max Seddon (2023-06-26)

Vladimir Putin vowed to punish Yevgeny Prigozhin for “treason” over the warlord’s armed uprising. Instead, the former Kremlin caterer and his Wagner group appeared to escape any harsh consequences after launching the first coup attempt in Russia for three decades.

STATEMENT FROM THE SUPERINTENDENT ON ROYAL ASSENT OF BILL C-47

OSFI (2023-06-26)

“Canadians must be confident that federally regulated financial institutions (FRFIs) have protections in place to counter threats to their integrity or security, including foreign interference.

THE STATUS OF WAGNER'S PRIGOZHIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS RUSSIA AIMS TO REGULATE MERCENARY GROUP. HERE'S THE LATEST

CNN (2023-06-25)

These were 36 hours that provided a glimpse of the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule. Almost every action was improbable, at best a week ago – much was inconceivable, 17 months ago.

INSTABILITY RATCHETS UP PRESSURE ON VLADIMIR PUTIN

BBC - Steve Rosenberg (2023-06-25)

"You can't make a public statement declaring people are criminals and then, on the same day, at the end of the day, let your press secretary disagree with you and say 'No, those people haven't broken the criminal code.'"

UKRAINE WAR UPDATES: CRISIS SHOWS ‘REAL CRACKS’ IN RUSSIA

Aljazeera - Mersiha Gadzo, Kate Mayberry and Umut Uras (2023-06-25)

“We agree that the Russian authorities are weak and that withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine is the best choice for the Kremlin,” Reznikov wrote on Twitter.

WHY DID PUTIN LET PRIGOZHIN WALK AWAY?

Daily Beast - Allison Quinn (2023-06-25)

The Kremlin even publicly guaranteed that Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin had President Vladimir Putin’s “word” he could safely leave the country—after conveniently having criminal charges against him dropped.

BANK OF CANADA NOW EXPECTED TO CAP RATE-HIKING CAMPAIGN AT 5%

Yahoo Finance - Erik Hertzberg and Sarina Yoo (2023-06-25)

Canada’s central bank will increase its key overnight rate to 5% in the third quarter, according to a monthly Bloomberg survey of 25 economists. That would be the highest level since 2001.

FEDERAL RESERVE’S JEROME POWELL SAYS HIGHER INTEREST RATES NEEDED TO CURB INFLATION

FP (2023-06-23)

“My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our two per cent goal,” Powell said Wednesday in prepared remarks to be delivered to the House Financial Services Committee. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.”

CENTRAL BANKS’ BATTLE WITH INFLATION ENTERS A NEW PHASE OF ‘PAIN’

FT - Chris Giles, Colby Smith (2023-06-23)

Headline rates of inflation across most of the world’s economies have fallen back sharply since the autumn but core rates — which exclude volatile categories such as energy and food — remain at or close to multi-decade highs.

POWELL DEFIES DC CRITICS AND MAKES CASE FOR WHY RATES MUST RISE

Yahoo Finance - Rich Miller (2023-06-22)

That led to speculation that the break in the tightening campaign was an uneasy compromise between monetary doves who fear the Fed may raise rates too far and trigger a recession, and hawks who worry it won’t tighten credit enough to curb inflation that is running more than twice the central bank’s target.

UK NET DEBT PASSES 100% OF GDP FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 1961

Reuters (2023-06-21)

 Britain's public sector net debt surpassed 100% of gross domestic product in May as borrowing came in higher than expected, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

UK'S HUNT SAYS MORTGAGE HOLDERS SHOULD NOT EXPECT FINANCIAL HELP

Reuters - David Milliken and Suban Abdulla (2023-06-21)

British finance minister Jeremy Hunt will hold a meeting with Britain's major banks on Friday to discuss how they can help homeowners hit by rising mortgage costs, after saying the government would not offer borrowers significant financial help.

RELEASE OF THE BANK OF CANADA’S SUMMARY OF DELIBERATIONS

BOC (2023-06-21)

On Wednesday, June 21, 2023, the Bank of Canada will publish a summary of the deliberations that took place ahead of its interest rate decision on June 7, 2023.

UNDERSTANDING INFLATION DYNAMICS: THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES

BOC - Chang Liu, Yinxi Xie (2023-06-21)

This paper studies the impact government expenditure has on inflation by examining an augmented Phillips curve implied from a structural New Keynesian model. Our estimation results, based on external instruments, show that the augmented Phillips curve has a flatter slope than the canonical specification and that government expenditure has a negative coefficient.

NEW ZEALAND TO INVESTIGATE PROFITABILITY, COMPETITION AT BANKS

Reuters (2023-06-20)

The banking sector is dominated by four banks making up around 85% of mortgage and other lending, and 90% of deposits, government data showed. Loans by smaller lenders have been rising but remain small in comparison.

BOE A STEP CLOSER TO LAUNCHING DIGITAL POUND AFTER PROJECT ROSALIND STUDY

Bloomberg - Lucy White and Aisha S Gani (2023-06-20)

The Bank of England is a step closer to launching its own digital currency after a yearlong project concluded the technology could support a “diverse range” of new ways to use money.

HIGH GOVERNMENT SPENDING MEANS MORE INFLATION? IT’S COMPLICATED, ECONOMISTS SAY

Investment Executive - Nojoud Al Mallees (2023-06-20)

As to what drove the current bout of high inflation in Canada and what role government spending had to play, Tombe said that’s still an open question.

BANK OF CANADA LIKELY TO HIKE AGAIN IN JULY: TD

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-06-19)

“We expect the BoC will hike rates again in July to 5.00% as it enters this trial-and-error stage of fine tuning the policy rate,” it said.

OTTAWA HALTS PARTICIPATION IN CHINA-LED DEVELOPMENT BANK

G&M - Steven Chase, James Griffiths (2023-06-15)

The bank’s global communications director, Bob Pickard, announced his resignation on Twitter Wednesday and recommended that Ottawa quit the bank because it was “dominated” by members of the Chinese Communist Party. He cited his Canadian citizenship when departing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

POWELL INDICATES AT LEAST TWO MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD AFTER PAUSE

Yahoo Finance - Catarina Saraiva and Steve Matthews (2023-06-15)

Policymakers on Wednesday left rates in a range of 5% to 5.25%, taking their first breather in a 15-month hiking campaign that included four jumbo-sized 75-basis-point increases last year.

FED KEEPS RATES UNCHANGED FOR FIRST TIME IN 15 MONTHS

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2023-06-15)

The Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes, which have made mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing costlier, have been intended to slow spending and defeat the worst bout of inflation in four decades.

FED POISED TO PUNT RATE HIKE INTO THE SUMMER WIND

Yahoo Finance - Howard Schneider (2023-06-14)

"We probably need a little more tightening, but it is not clear how much," said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist in the fixed income division at T. Rowe Price Associates, noting that despite strength in recent employment and core inflation reports, a "nuanced" reading of the data showed both may be set to weaken.

BANK OF CANADA RATE HIKE SEEN AS 'CANARY IN A COAL MINE' AS FED DECISION LOOMS

FP - Denise Paglanawan (2023-06-14)

Both the Canadian and Australian central banks surprised markets by raising rates last week, leading to a slump in global bonds and speculation that the Fed might follow suit. The Fed, however, has been vocal in signalling that it will hold this week, with markets placing odds of a hold at 75 per cent. That looked even more likely after May inflation checked in Tuesday at four per cent, the lowest level in two years.

SILVIO BERLUSCONI, ITALY LEADER MIRED IN SCANDAL, DIES AT 86

Yahoo Finance (2023-06-13)

Berlusconi was one of the most influential figures in Italian politics of the last three decades. Berlusconi made headlines in February 2023, when an audio recording emerged in which he praised the Russian leader, said he’d rekindled their friendship through gifts and letters, and blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for Russia’s invasion.

FISCAL POLICY NEEDS TO JOIN INFLATION FIGHT: CIBC

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-06-13)

At the same time, government hiring has outpaced private sector employment, keeping the pressure on labour markets at a time when the prospect of wage inflation remains a key concern for the central bank, it said.

SEC LAWSUITS AGAINST CRYPTOCURRENCY COMPANIES RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT INDUSTRY’S FUTURE

G&M - FATIMA HUSSEIN & KEN SWEET (2023-06-12)

Industry leaders say that, with their latest actions, U.S. regulators are more clearly signalling that they seek to ensure cryptocurrency has no room in the traditional financial system.

NIGERIA BONDS SURGE ON WEEKEND OUSTER OF CENTRAL BANK CHIEF

Yahoo Finance - Anthony Osae-Brown and Emele Onu (2023-06-12)

Governor Godwin Emefiele was suspended by Tinubu after the markets closed on Friday, and then detained by Nigeria’s state security service a day later for unexplained “investigative reasons.” Folashodun Shonubi, a deputy governor in charge of operations at the bank, took over in an acting capacity.

BANK OF CANADA HIKES ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS, BRINGING POLICY RATE TO 4.75%

Yahoo Finance - Alicja Siekierska (2023-06-08)

The increase brings the central bank's target for the overnight rate to 4.75 per cent, the highest level since May 2001, and restarts its tightening campaign as policymakers continues to try to tame inflation.

FREELAND TRIES TO CALM ‘ANXIOUS’ CANADIANS AFTER FRESH RATE HIKE

Bloomberg (2023-06-08)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tried to reassure Canadians that the economy is still headed for calmer times after the central bank unexpectedly resumed raising interest rates.

IS IT A ‘SKIP’ OR A ‘PAUSE’? LANGUAGE MATTERS AS FED PREPARES FOR RATE ANNOUNCEMENT

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2023-06-08)

The purpose of suspending its rate hikes is to give the Fed’s policymakers time to look around and assess how much higher borrowing rates are slowing inflation. Calling next week’s decision a “skip” is also a way for Chairman Jerome Powell to forge a consensus among an increasingly fractious committee of Fed policymakers.

BANK OF CANADA TO ANNOUNCE INTEREST RATE DECISION THIS MORNING

Yahoo Finance (2023-06-07)

Economists — many of whom expected high interest rates to send the economy into a recession by now — say the recent data suggests the central bank may have to hike interest rates again to get inflation back to the two per cent target.

FIRST REPUBLIC'S FORMER CO-CEO COULD BE TURKEY'S NEXT CENTRAL BANK CHIEF

Yahoo Finance - Jeffrey Cane (2023-06-07)

Before First Republic, Erkan was at Goldman Sachs for nearly nine years, advising financial institutions. She was named a managing director in 2011.  A graduate of  Bogazici University in Turkey, she earned a Ph.D. in operations research and financial engineering from Princeton in 2006.

THE BANK OF CANADA IS LIKELY READY TO START HIKING INTEREST RATES AGAIN

Bloomberg - Erik Hertzberg (2023-06-07)

The Bank of Canada probably isn’t done raising interest rates. 

MORGAN STANLEY SEES ECB ENDING ITS RATE HIKE CYCLE IN JULY AT 3.75%

Reuters (2023-06-05)

U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS.N) said on Monday that it expected the European Central Bank (ECB) to end its interest-rate hiking cycle in July at 3.75%.

CRISIS AVERTED ON THE DEBT CEILING — FOR NOW: BIG TAKE PODCAST

FP (2023-06-05)

he last-minute deal to raise the debt limit averted a US default, but risks making brinkmanship over federal borrowing a seasonal event as lawmakers wage fiscal war in Washington.

WHAT’S THE RIGHT NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS FOR CANADA?

G&M - Ian McGugan (2023-06-05)

Prominent business economists say they are baffled by the government’s insistence on sticking to supersized immigration quotas at a time of widespread housing shortages. Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank of Canada, and David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, have urged Ottawa to consider revising its targets to allow housing supply to catch up to demand.

JPMORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON HAS NO PLANS TO RUN FOR OFFICE, COMPANY SAYS

Reuters - Lananh Nguyen (2023-06-05)

“As he has said in the past, Jamie has no plans to run for office," the company said in a statement. "He is very happy in his current role.”

BANK OF CANADA RATE HIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEK, ECONOMISTS SAY

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-06-04)

For the first time in months, the possibility of another Bank of Canada interest-rate hike appears to be on the table this week.

WITH JUST DAYS TO SPARE, SENATE GIVES FINAL APPROVAL TO U.S. DEBT CEILING DEAL, SENDING IT TO BIDEN

G&M - LISA MASCARO, KEVIN FREKING, STEPHEN GROVES AND FARNOUSH AMIRI (2023-06-02)

Approval in the Senate on a bipartisan vote, 63-36, somewhat reflected the overwhelming House tally the day before, relying on centrists in both parties to pull the Biden-McCarthy package to passage – though Democrats led the tally in both chambers.

PWC CONTRACTS FROZEN BY $191 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PENSION FUND

Yahoo Finance (2023-06-02)

The Australian arm of the global consulting giant has faced intense scrutiny following revelations that a former senior partner obtained confidential tax policy information while advising the government. PwC then leaked the advice to colleagues who used it to advise global clients. The firm is now under pressure over how many employees were aware the information was being leaked.

LEGISLATION INTRODUCED TO PREVENT FEDERAL RESERVE'S CBDC PILOT PROGRAM: THE DIGITAL DOLLAR DEBATE CONTINUES

Tokenpost (2023-06-02)

The legislative action aims to impose a blanket restriction on the Federal Reserve, barring it from initiating, executing, or sanctioning any program built around examining the viability of CBDC issuance.

KENYA CENTRAL BANK SAYS DIGITAL CURRENCY NOT A 'COMPELLING PRIORITY'

Reuters (2023-06-02)

"On the global stage, the allure of CBDCs is fading," the bank said in a statement. "Implementation of a CBDC in Kenya may not be a compelling priority in the short to medium term."

CANADA’S ECONOMY OUTPERFORMS IN FIRST QUARTER, RAISING PRESSURE ON BOC AHEAD OF NEXT WEEK’S RATE DECISION

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-06-01)

The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 per cent in the first quarter, outperforming expectations while adding pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates again, perhaps as early as next week.

DEBT LIMIT DEAL HEADS TO VOTE IN FULL HOUSE WHILE MCCARTHY SCRAMBLES FOR GOP APPROVAL

Yahoo Finance (2023-05-31)

“We’re going to pass the bill,” McCarthy said as he exited the session.

REPUBLICANS HAIL BIG SPENDING CUTS THAT ECONOMISTS SAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

Bloomberg - Edna Curran (2023-05-31)

US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy struck a deal on the federal debt ceiling over the weekend that, if approved by Congress, will avert a disastrous debt default.

POPULIST PREMIER DANIELLE SMITH OVERCOMES GAFFES TO WIN CLOSE-FOUGHT ALBERTA ELECTION

Reuters - Sam Jabri-Pickett and Nia Williams (2023-05-30)

United Conservative Party (UCP) leader Danielle Smith's election victory in Canada's main oil-producing province Alberta on Monday is likely to herald further friction with Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, particularly over climate change.

BIDEN AND MCCARTHY REACH A FINAL DEAL TO AVOID U.S. DEFAULT AND NOW MUST SELL IT TO CONGRESS

G&M - LISA MASCARO, MARY CLARE JALONICK, FARNOUSH AMIRI AND MICHELLE L. PRICE (2023-05-29)

With days to spare before a potential first-ever government default, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached final agreement Sunday on a deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling and worked to ensure enough support in Congress to pass the measure in the coming week.

THE US' AAA CREDIT RATINGS AT RISK OF A DOWNGRADE DUE TO 'BRINKMANSHIP OVER THE DEBT CEILING.' THIS COULD IMPACT TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF TREASURY SECURITIES.

Yahoo Finance - Huileng Tan (2023-05-26)

The US debt ceiling impasse has hit a crucial stage — the country's prized AAA credit rating is at risk, which could impact the pricing of trillions of dollars worth of Treasury debt securities.

SENATOR ON A MISSION TO MAKE FINANCE INDUSTRY PRIORITIZE CLIMATE OBJECTIVES

G&M (2023-05-25)

Rosa Galvez is a senator on a mission to get the finance industry to live up to its proclamations of aligning its business with climate objectives.

CANADIANS SHOULD NOT EXPECT BOC TO RETURN TO LOW RATES, MACKLEM SAYS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-05-19)

“Nobody should expect that interest rates are going to go back down to the very low levels that we’ve seen over the last decade or so,” Mr. Macklem told reporters following the release of the central bank’s annual Financial System Review.

ECB EYES ADDITIONAL STEPS TO TACKLE BANK DEPOSIT RISKS

Reuters (2023-05-19)

The European Central Bank is considering whether requirements tailored for individual lenders could help address the risks arising for those holding large amounts of uninsured deposits, a document showed.

LOONIE POISED FOR RALLY AS TRADERS BET ON BANK OF CANADA RATE HIKES

Bloomberg - Anya Andrianova and Robert Fullem (2023-05-18)

The loonie is well-positioned to revisit its strongest level of the year as traders boost wagers that the Bank of Canada will resume interest rate hikes.

THIS IS WHY NEW YORK WILL ULTIMATELY COLLAPSE

Youtube - STEVE FORBES (2023-05-17)

Steve Forbes reveals the policies and factors that are leading to the collapse of New York

OTTAWA, WE HAVE A PROBLEM: IS CANADA’S ECONOMY HEADING TOWARD DISASTER?

G&M - George Athanassakos (2023-05-17)

Canada’s politicians seem to be making the same mistakes politicians in Argentina and South Africa did. They behaved as if their countries’ wealth was endless, and look where they are now.

DOES CANADA REALLY NEED A DIGITAL LOONIE?

CBC - Peter Armstrong (2023-05-16)

"It seems like this is a solution looking in vain for a problem to solve," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at the financial payments company Corpay.

FRENCH AUTHORITIES SEEK €2.5BN FROM BANKS OVER TAX FRAUD PROBE

FT - Leila Abboud, Sarah White (2023-05-16)

The French government is seeking to recover €2.5bn in back taxes from several banks, including some of the country’s largest lenders, over a scheme they are alleged to have used to avoid taxes linked to dividend payments.  Gabriel Attal, the minister for the budget, gave the figure in a public Senate hearing earlier this month, but did not name the banks that had been issued with the demands.  It is the first time that the French government has given a figure for the potential losses to public coffers from the so-called cum-cum trades, or transactions designed to seek tax advantages tied to the payment of dividends.

OTTAWA’S MORTGAGE BOND PROPOSAL DRAWS CONCERNS FROM BAY STREET

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-05-15)

Bay Street bond dealers and investors are raising concerns about a proposed change to Canada’s housing finance system that would transform the $260-billion Canada Mortgage Bonds market and see the federal government financing a significant portion of the country’s mortgage lending out of its own borrowing.

RHYS MENDES APPOINTED AS DEPUTY GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF CANADA

BOC (2023-05-13)

Since 2021, Mr. Mendes has been on secondment to the Department of Finance, where he was serving as Assistant Deputy Minister. Mr. Mendes joined the Bank in 2004. He held increasingly senior positions before being appointed Deputy Managing Director of the Canadian Economic Analysis Department in 2013, Managing Director of Economic and Financial Research in 2016, then Managing Director of the Bank of Canada’s International Economic Analysis Department in 2017.

DIMON JABS AT TRUMP ON DEBT CEILING, SAYS JPMORGAN HAS WAR ROOM

Bloomberg (2023-05-12)

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon took a jab at Donald Trump for encouraging Republican lawmakers to dig in over raising the debt limit even if it means default — an outcome his bank is prepping for by convening a weekly war room. 

FED'S BOWMAN: MORE POLICY TIGHTENING LIKELY APPROPRIATE

Yahoo Finance (2023-05-12)

The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably need to raise interest rates further if inflation stays high, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday, adding that key data so far this month has not convinced her that price pressures are receding.

YELLEN TO DISCUSS DEBT CEILING WITH BANK LOBBY GROUP

Reuters (2023-05-12)

Yellen's meeting with the board - which includes the chief executives of JP Morgan (JPM.N), Jamie Dimon, and of Citigroup's (C.N), Jane Fraser - was first reported by Politico.

DIPLOMATIC EXPULSIONS GIVE CANADA NEW CAUSE TO STEER AWAY FROM CHINA ON TRADE POLICY, EXPERTS SAY

G&M (2023-05-10)

Canadian wheat sales to China began within a decade of Mao Zedong’s revolutionary victory. For many years, the Canadian International Development Agency, which administered foreign aid programs, was a pillar of Ottawa’s engagement with Beijing.

CANADA DECLARES CHINESE DIPLOMAT ZHAO WEI ‘PERSONA NON GRATA’ OVER FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

G&M - Bill Curry (2023-05-09)

The extraordinary expulsion – the first of a Chinese diplomat in decades – carries substantial consequences given the size of Canada’s economic and social ties with China. It is Canada’s second-largest trading partner and second-highest source of immigration.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE RAISES KEY RATE BUT HINTS IT MAY PAUSE AMID BANK TURMOIL

G&M - Christopher Rugaber (2023-05-04)

In a statement after its latest policy meeting, the Fed removed a sentence from its previous statement that had said “some additional” rate hikes might be needed. It replaced it with language that said it will weigh a range of factors in “determining the extent” to which future hikes might be needed.

PSAC AGREEMENT SETS STAGE FOR OTHER UNIONS TO PUSH FOR MORE

G&M - Bill Curry (2023-05-02)

The labour deal that ended a historic strike by federal government employees is expected to serve as a catalyst for workers across Canada to push for higher wages in an inflationary environment.

AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK HIKES INTEREST RATE TO 3.85%

Yahoo Finance (2023-05-02)

“Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7% is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range,” Lowe said in a statement.

JAPAN ECONOMY MINISTER GOTO URGES US BANKS, REGULATORS TO TACKLE LIQUIDITY RISKS

Yahoo Finance - Tetsushi Kajimoto and Yoshifumi Takemoto (2023-05-02)

"The BOJ as central bank should tackle monetary policy operations, but I don't see the current financial situation impacting Japan's economy and financial sector as a whole.

FED IS SET TO RAISE RATES YET AGAIN. THEN WHAT?

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2023-05-02)

Seven of the Fed’s 18 policymakers, though, projected that rates would exceed 5.1%, while only one policymaker forecast a lower rate. That suggested that the Fed as a whole was leaning toward additional hikes.

A REVIEW OF THE BANK OF CANADA’S SUPPORT OF KEY FINANCIAL MARKETS DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS

BOC - Joshua Fernandes and Michael Mueller (2023-05-02)

 We describe how the Bank of Canada responded to the rapidly deteriorating liquidity in core Canadian fixed-income markets.

U.S. REGULATORS SEIZE FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, SELL TO JPMORGAN CHASE

G&M (2023-05-01)

Regulators had been working to find a way forward before U.S. stock markets opened Monday. San Francisco-based First Republic has struggled since the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March. They added to worries that the bank may not survive as an independent entity for much longer.

CURRENCIES IN LIMBO AWAITING PACKED WEEK OF CENTRAL BANKS

Yahoo Finance - Stella Qiu (2023-05-01)

"The focus will be on revisions to the forward guidance in its statement," analysts at Goldman said in a note to clients.

CAROLYN WILKINS HOPES OTHER CENTRAL BANKS LEARN LESSONS FROM AUSTRALIA

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2023-05-01)

What the RBA and the Bank of Canada have gone through isn’t unique. Central banks around the world got fooled by the inflation surge that began in 2021, and have been scrambling to catch up over the past year. What was unique was the economic upheaval caused by the pandemic, which didn’t fit any past scenarios that were built into the predictive statistical models on which central banks depend.

US REGULATORS TO RELEASE REVIEWS OF LARGEST BANK FAILURES SINCE 2008 CRISIS

Yahoo Finance - Ann Saphir and Hannah Lang (2023-04-28)

In back-to-back reports due on Friday, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) are also expected to float a number of fixes that may lay the groundwork for tougher U.S. bank-sector regulation and supervision ahead - moves likely to elicit pushback from an industry eager to hang onto the regulatory reprieves it won several years ago.

BBC'S SHARP RESIGNS AFTER BREACHING RULES OVER BORIS JOHNSON LOAN

BBC (2023-04-28)

 BBC Chairman Richard Sharp resigned on Friday after an independent report found he had breached public appointment rules by not disclosing potential conflict of interest in his role in securing a $1 million loan for the then-prime minister, Boris Johnson.

BANK OF CANADA CONSIDERED INTEREST-RATE INCREASE IN APRIL, MINUTES SHOW

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-04-27)

Bank of Canada officials considered whether to raise interest rates again on April 12, according to a summary of the deliberations that led to the latest monetary policy decision – a sign that the central bank is leaning more toward rate hikes than cuts as it waits for inflation to fall.

ECB SETS OUT LATEST DIGITAL EURO THINKING

Finextra (2023-04-26)

In its initial releases, a digital euro would be accessible to euro area residents, merchants and governments. Non-resident euro area citizens might also have access, provided that they held an account with a euro area-based payment services provider.

STRIKING FEDERAL WORKERS WILL CONTINUE GETTING REGULAR SALARIES UNTIL AT LEAST MAY 10

G&M - Vanmala Subramaniam (2023-04-26)

Striking federal public servants will continue to receive their regular salaries until at least May 10, according to the government, though they will likely have their pay clawed back at a later date for the days they had spent on the picket line.

BANK OF CANADA BEGINS DISCLOSING CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-04-26)

The Bank of Canada began disclosing climate-related risks to its operations and balance sheet this week – a move intended to inspire other financial institutions to raise their game on climate-related disclosure.

SWISS FRANC WINS BATTLE OF FX HAVENS WITH FOUR-DECADE HIGH AGAINST YEN

Yahoo Finance - Yumi Teso, Hiroko komiya (2023-04-25)

The Swissie has hit levels last seen in 1980 as investors wager that the Bank of Japan will keep its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged Friday, a decision which may weigh on the Japanese currency. The Swiss National Bank removed negative rates last year and began its hiking cycle.

CANADA'S STRIKING WORKERS CLOSER TO RESOLVING WAGE, REMOTE WORK ISSUES

Yahoo Finance - Divya Rajagopal (2023-04-24)

The revenue agency workers wanted a pay hike of 22.5% over three years, while the Treasury Board workers who oversee federal government administration were seeking a 13.5% pay rise over three years. The government offered both groups a 9% increase over three years.

CHINA GUIDES BANKS TO FURTHER CUT DEPOSIT RATES

Reuters (2023-04-24)

China nudged banks this month to cut deposit interest rates further, seven people with knowledge of the matter said, in the latest effort to channel the country's vast savings pool into spending and more productive investments.

FED TILTS TOWARD RATE HIKE, WITH A POSSIBLE PAUSE IN VIEW AS LENDING SLOWS

Yahoo Finance - Howard Schneider (2023-04-21)

Overall bank credit did fall about 1.5% in the three weeks from Wednesday, March 15 to Wednesday April 5, and there were initial outflows of deposits from smaller banks to larger ones. But those flows quickly stabilized, and the Fed's recent Beige Book compendium of observations about the economy showed the lending impact seemingly regionalized, not evolving into an imminent national credit crash.

FED IN DISCUSSIONS WITH BANKS ABOUT MANAGING RISKS OF AI: WALLER

Reuters - Ann Saphir and Hannah Lang (2023-04-21)

ONE OF THE LARGEST STRIKES IN CANADIAN HISTORY GRINDS SOME PUBLIC SERVICES TO A HALT

G&M - VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM, BILL CURRY, MARK RENDELL (2023-04-20)

A nationwide strike of more than 150,000 federal public servants has ground some critical services to a halt, even as both the union and the government remain at the bargaining table.

FEDERAL WORKERS TO STRIKE WEDNESDAY IF UNION, GOVERNMENT DON'T REACH DEAL BY TUESDAY

Yahoo Finance (2023-04-18)

The Public Service Alliance of Canada says some 155,000 employees are prepared to walk off the job beginning Wednesday, including 35,000 workers from the Canada Revenue Agency.

OSFI LAUNCHES STABLECOIN CONSULTATION

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-04-18)

“While these cryptoassets have yet to achieve mainstream adoption as a means of payment, associated financial activities have the potential to present risks to the financial system,” OSFI said in a letter accompanying the consultation.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO LIFT DEPOSIT RATE TO 3.75% PEAK IN JULY, SURVEY SHOWS

Yahoo Finance - Zoe Schneeweiss and Harumi Ichikura (2023-04-17)

“At some point, it’s only natural that the step size is reduced — for example, the increase could be not 50 basis points, but 25 basis points,” he said, according to the Baltic country’s Leta news service.

CENTRAL BANKS HAVE YET TO SCRIPT FINAL ACT OF INFLATION FIGHT AS RISKS RISE

Yahoo Finance - Howard Schneider and Balazs Koranyi (2023-04-17)

Major central banks may be deep into their drive to raise interest rates in hopes of killing inflation, but the endgame remains far from clear as price increases prove harder to slow than expected, and analysts caution that financial markets could still break along the way.

YELLEN SAYS US BANKS MAY TIGHTEN LENDING AND NEGATE NEED FOR MORE RATE HIKES

Reuters - David Lawder (2023-04-17)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

OSFI LAUNCHES CONSULTATION ON FIAT-REFERENCED CRYPTO-ASSET ARRANGEMENTS AND ACTIVITIES

OSFI (2023-04-17)

Fiat-referenced crypto-assets are the most prevalent type of stablecoin. They have gained in popularity within the growing crypto-assets market and have the potential to present risks to the Canadian financial system.

BANK OF CANADA’S MACKLEM SAYS INFLATION FALLING QUICKLY, BUT EMPHASIZES LONGER FIGHT TO RETURN TO 2 PER CENT

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-04-14)

Inflation should fall quickly in the coming months, but getting it back to 2 per cent could be a long slog, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday, suggesting that interest rates may need to remain elevated for some time.

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS STEADY ON BORROWING COSTS, KEEPING KEY RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.5%

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-04-13)

The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady on Wednesday while pushing back against market expectations that it will start cutting rates later this year.

BANK OF CANADA Q+A: WHERE DO INTEREST RATES GO FROM HERE?

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2023-04-13)

Financial Post editor-in-chief Kevin Carmichael was in Ottawa on April 12, for the Bank of Canada’s decision, economic forecast and news conference.

FED’S MEETING MINUTES TO DETAIL HOW OFFICIALS WEIGHED BANK RISKS

Yahoo Finance - Catarina Saraiva (2023-04-12)

Powell, at the post-meeting press conference in March, said officials were stumped by the rapid run on SVB. And New York Fed President John Williams this week said he didn’t think there was a link between the Fed’s aggressive rate increases and stress in the banking sector.

BLACKROCK TO SELL $114 BILLION OF FAILED BANKS’ SECURITIES

Yahoo Finance - Dan Reichl and Silla Brush (2023-04-11)

BlackRock Inc. was hired by US regulators to help sell $114 billion in securities it amassed from failed lenders Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, returning the asset-manager to its role as an adviser to the government in times of crisis.

LIBERAL TAX PROMISE TRACKER, POST-BUDGET EDITION

Investment Executive - Malissa Shin (2023-04-11)

There were no major surprises in the federal budget tabled on March 28, and the financial services industry received long-awaited clarity on several files. That said, some tax issues still linger.

BANK OF CANADA TO STAY ON PAUSE DESPITE STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH

Bloomberg - Erik Hertzberg (2023-04-11)

Canada’s economy was supposed to be stalling by now. It’s still charging ahead, creating a challenge for the central bank as it prepares to hold its policy rate at 4.5% for a second straight decision.

FULL IMPACT OF PAST BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE HIKES NOT YET SEEN: EXPERT

BNN (2023-04-11)

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold Wednesday as a string of aggressive hikes has yet to be fully reflected within the economy, one expert says. 

FED TO DETERMINE 'WHAT, IF ANY' MORE RATE ACTION IS NEEDED -HARKER

Reuters (2023-04-11)

"Since the full impact of monetary policy actions can take as much as 18 months to work its way through the economy, we will continue to look closely at available data to determine what, if any, additional actions we may need to take," Harker said in a speech at the Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation.

'THE WARNING SIGNS WERE THERE' BEFORE SVB CRISIS HIT, CAROLYN WILKINS SAYS

Yahoo Finance (2023-04-11)

“I think the warning signs were there ahead of time and people were talking about them,” Wilkins said, noting that rising interest rates that contributed to the crisis were no secret. “The Fed couldn’t have been any clearer that it was raising interest rates.”

LIQUIDITY RULES NEED RETHINK AFTER SILICON VALLEY BANK CRASH, SAYS CARNEY

Yahoo Finance - Huw Jones (2023-04-05)

"That will, I think, require some rethinking of the assumptions behind liquidity coverage ratio, the net stable funding ratio," Carney said, referring to the LCR and NSFR.

UK SLAPS LEVY ON REGULATED ENTITIES TO HELP FUND MONEY LAUNDERING FIGHT

Pymnts (2023-04-04)

The roughly 4,000 AML-regulated entities within the scope of the levy will be organizations with U.K. revenue exceeding £10.2 million (about $10.6 million) per year, which will pay a fixed annual charge of either £10,000, £36,000 or £250,000 depending on the revenue bracket they fall in.

GOVERNMENT BANK RESCUES NEVER WENT AWAY. JUST DON’T CALL THEM BAILOUTS

G&M - Eric Reguly (2023-04-03)

The term bank “bailout” has disappeared from the financial lexicon. It implied taxpayer-funded rescues equivalent to the GDP of a small country, rescuing the rich from the fallout of hopeless investments and protecting inept executives from lynchings at the hands of wronged depositors, clients and shareholders.

BIDEN PRESSURES US REGULATORS TO TOUGHEN BANK RULES

Yahoo Finance - David Hollerith and Jennifer Schonberger (2023-03-31)

One Republican lawmaker said the Fed already has the power to hold banks like Silicon Valley Bank accountable and it failed to do so. “Instead of giving more authority to regulators who were asleep at the wheel before these bank failures, we should hold them accountable for their inability to utilize their existing supervisory tools,” said Patrick McHenry, chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

CHINA CALLS US DEBT TRAP ACCUSATION 'IRRESPONSIBLE'

ReReuters (2023-03-31)

Yellen on Wednesday said she was concerned by some of China's activities globally, particularly its lending to developing countries. She told U.S. lawmakers in a hearing that Washington was working hard to counter China's influence in international institutions and in lending to developing nations.

BANK OF CANADA SEES QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING ENDING BY 2025

Bloomberg - Randy Thanthong-Knight (2023-03-30)

A Bank of Canada official said quantitative tightening will likely end in late 2024 or the first half of 2025, at which point the central bank would start buying assets again.

CANADA MAY BOOST DEPOSIT INSURANCE IF MARKETS FACE ‘DISRUPTION’

Bloomberg - Derek Decloet (2023-03-30)

Canada may amend its deposit insurance law to increase protection limits if needed to calm a “market disruption,” according to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s new budget. 

BUDGET TARGETS BILLIONS FROM BANKS WITH CHANGE TO DIVIDEND TAX

G&M - Stefanie Marotta (2023-03-29)

Ottawa is planning to raise billions of dollars from banks and insurers through a change in tax rules on dividends that financial institutions receive from Canadian companies.

US EXPECTS BIDEN'S NOMINEE, AJAY BANGA, TO BE ELECTED AS WORLD BANK CHIEF

Yahoo Finance (2023-03-29)

Banga, 63, recently completed a three-week world tour to meet government leaders, civil society groups and others in borrowing and donor countries as he campaigned for the bank's top post.

US REGULATOR CITES 'TERRIBLE' RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SILICON VALLEY BANK FAILURE

Reuters - Pete Schroeder, Hannah Lang (2023-03-29)

A top U.S. regulator told a Senate panel on Tuesday that Silicon Valley Bank did a "terrible" job of managing risk before its collapse, fending off criticism from lawmakers who blamed bank watchdogs for missing warning signs.

LESSONS FROM OUR SUPPORT OF FINANCIAL MARKETS IN TOUGH TIMES

BOC - Toni Gravelle (2023-03-29)

Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle talks about how the Bank of Canada supported markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and what we might do differently in the future. He also discusses recent turmoil in the banking system in the United States and overseas.

FED RAISES RATE DESPITE TURMOIL IN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-03-23)

The U.S. Federal Reserve pressed ahead with its ninth consecutive interest rate hike, but signalled that it may be near the end of its monetary policy tightening campaign as it grapples with the most serious banking crisis since 2008.

SWITZERLAND’S EMERGENCY RESCUE OF CREDIT SUISSE COULD COST $13,500 FOR EACH AND EVERY SWISS PERSON

Fortune - Bryce Baschuk, Bastian Benrath (2023-03-23)

To backstop the emergency sale of Credit Suisse Group AG to its Zurich rival UBS Group AG, the Swiss government pledged to make as much as 109 billion francs available — a hefty burden for the country of 8.7 million people. 

CENTRAL BANKS IN A BIND OVER BURGEONING FINANCIAL CRISIS AND INFLATION

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-03-21)

For the past year, central banks including the Bank of Canada have fought to get inflation under control with single-minded determination. Over the past week, they’ve added a second task: stopping contagion from spreading through the global financial system after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse.

COORDINATED CENTRAL BANK ACTION TO ENHANCE THE PROVISION OF U.S. DOLLAR LIQUIDITY

Federal Reserve (2023-03-21)

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

EUROPE'S CENTRAL BANK HIKES INTEREST RATES BY 50 BASIS POINTS DESPITE BANK CHAOS SOCIAL SHARING

CBC (2023-03-17)

The ECB hiked rates by half a percentage point Thursday, underlining its determination to fight high inflation of 8.5 per cent. In a statement, the bank called the banking sector in the 20 countries using the euro currency "resilient," with strong finances.

ECB MEETS OVER BANKING STRESS AS US RESCUE EASES IMMEDIATE FEARS

Reuters - Balazs Koranyi, Pete Schroeder (2023-03-17)

"The Supervisory Board is meeting to exchange views and to provide members with an update on recent developments in the banking sector," an ECB spokesperson told Reuters.

CHINA CUTS BANKS' RESERVE RATIO FOR FIRST TIME IN 2023 TO SUPPORT RECOVERY

Reuters - Ellen Zhang (2023-03-17)

China's central bank said on Friday it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year to help keep liquidity ample and support a nascent economic recovery.

VCS ASK TRUDEAU FOR LIFELINE TO REPLACE SVB CREDIT IN CANADA

Bloomberg - Estaban Duarte (2023-03-17)

A group representing Canada’s venture capital sector is asking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to provide emergency financing to help startups affected by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.  

EXPERTS, BANKS IN U.S. LOOK FOR IDEAS TO STOP NEXT BANK FAILURE

Investment Executive - Ken Sweet (2023-03-17)

Congress decided to provide relief from the Dodd-Frank legislation. Among other things, it ditched the $50 billion asset threshold for the most stringent oversight, pushing it up to $250 billion. Many large lenders, including Silicon Valley Bank, were thereby freed from the tightest regulatory scrutiny.

MARK CARNEY’S CLIMATE PROGRAMS AT THE BANK OF ENGLAND TO BE DEFUNDED

TrueNorth - Ellen Milligan and Philip Aldrick (2023-03-16)

Climate programs will slip lower on the central bank’s agenda so officials can focus more on the core operations such as financial stability, markets and a digital currency, according to a person with knowledge of the situation who asked not to be named. The BOE’s climate work currently focuses on building ESG disclosure guidelines, preparing insurers for risks from rising global temperatures and getting banks to carbon-test their balance

OSFI TO START DAILY MONITORING OF CANADIAN BANKS’ LIQUIDITY IN WAKE OF SVB FAILURE

G&M - Tim Kiladze (2023-03-14)

last used in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, designed to provide an early warning if any signs of stress emerge.

CIRCLE STABLECOIN’S WILD WEEKEND RAISES RISK OF REGULATORY SCRUTINY

Yahoo Finance - Olga Kharif (2023-03-14)

Market overseers, their hands already full with the biggest US bank failure in a decade, were forced over the weekend to contend with a drama playing out in a section of finance that has been trying their patience for months: crypto. That’s where USD Coin’s supposedly immutable bond with the dollar came asunder, when it was revealed about 8% of the reserves backing it were stuck at the collapsed lender.

FDIC WILL PROTECT ALL SILICON VALLEY BANK DEPOSITS AFTER SUDDEN COLLAPSE, TREASURY SAYS

Forbes - Joe Walsh (2023-03-13)

Federal regulators will safeguard all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, including money that isn’t normally covered by federal deposit insurance, the Treasury Department announced Sunday evening, a rare and sweeping move designed to prevent the tech-focused bank’s rapid collapse from infecting the rest of the U.S. financial system.

YELLEN RULES OUT BAILOUT FOR SILICON VALLEY BANK

Forbes - Marisa Dellatto (2023-03-13)

The federal government will not bail out the “investors and owners” of Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday on Face The Nation, saying the situation is different from the 2008 financial crisis, as the tech industry reels from the bank’s sudden collapse amid fears of broader financial industry contagion.

OSFI TAKES CONTROL OF SILICON VALLEY BANK’S CANADIAN UNIT

G&M - Andrew Willis (2023-03-13)

Canada’s banking regulator took control of Silicon Valley Bank’s domestic operations on Sunday, as governments, along with tech sector CEOs, spent the weekend scrambling to limit the impact of a leading global technology financer’s sudden collapse.

FINANCIAL TREMORS NOW MUDDYING FED INFLATION DEBATE

Yahoo Finance - Howard Schneider (2023-03-13)

"The threat of a systemic disruption in the banking system is small, but the risk of stoking financial instability may well encourage the Fed to opt for a smaller rate increase at the upcoming meeting," Oxford Economics economist Bob Schwartz wrote on Friday after SVB was closed by regulators and as officials began examining how to respond to the largest bank failure since the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis.

BIDEN VOWS NEW BANK RULES AFTER SVB COLLAPSE, CITES TRUMP ROLLBACK

G&M (2023-03-13)

President Joe Biden declared the US banking system “safe” and vowed stiffer bank regulation, after U.S. regulators were forced to step in with a series of emergency measures after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapse, threatening to trigger a broader crisis.

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS KEY RATE STEADY AT 4.5%

G&M - BARRIE MCKENNA AND MARK RENDELL (2023-03-09)

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.5 per cent Wednesday, pausing its year-long campaign to increase borrowing costs while leaving the door open to further rate hikes if inflation doesn’t slow as quickly as expected.

HOW THE U.S. SPENT $1.4 TRILLION IN DEBT LAST YEAR, EXPLAINED WITH PENNIES

Yahoo Finance (2023-03-09)

The U.S. relies on debt for much of its spending — but what would spending cuts look like? WSJ explains how much the Treasury relies on debt, where it goes and what happens when the Treasury hits the debt ceiling.

BANK OF CANADA AND FED HEAD FOR HISTORIC DIVERGENCE, IN A BLOW TO LOONIE

Yahoo Finance - Fergal Smith (2023-03-09)

Canadian inflation slowed more than expected to 5.9% in January and gross domestic product was flat in the fourth quarter, held back by weakness in the interest rate-sensitive parts of the economy, including housing investment as well as business spending on machinery and equipment.

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS RATES, BUT IT WILL STILL DRIVE BORROWING COSTS HIGHER

Better Dwelling (2023-03-09)

The BoC is now in the process of trying to reduce some of the epic stimulus it injected into the system. It used QE for the first time in 2020, increasing the balance sheet by nearly 5x to $575.3 billion in March 2021. That was the peak holding, and as intended—it helped flood the market with excess capital. Shortly after, a generational high for inflation appeared. Mission accomplished, but it might have been a little too effective, requiring undoing. 

US. CENTRAL BANK WILLING TO RAISE RATES EVEN HIGHER AND FASTER, JEROME POWELL TELLS LAWMAKERS

CBC (2023-03-08)

The Federal Reserve could increase the size of its interest rate hikes and raise borrowing costs to higher levels than previously projected if evidence continues to point to a robust economy and persistently high inflation, Chair Jerome Powell told a Senate panel Tuesday.

WEALTH ONE FINED $676,500 FOR FAILING TO COMPLY WITH ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING LAW

G&M - Steven Chase, Robert Fife (2023-03-07)

The country’s anti-money laundering watchdog has fined Wealth One Bank of Canada – a bank established to cater to Chinese-Canadians – for failing to comply with a federal law designed to stop terrorist financing and the illegal concealment of the origins of funding.

BANK OF CANADA RISKS FALLING TOO FAR BEHIND FED, SCOTIA SAYS

Bloomberg - Kevin Orland (2023-03-07)

The Bank of Canada is limited in how much its interest rate increases can lag behind those of the Federal Reserve, with the gap threatening to weaken its currency and fuel inflation, according to an economist at Bank of Nova Scotia.

BANK OF CANADA IS “CONDITIONALLY” PAUSING HIKES, BUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

Better Dwelling (2023-03-07)

Inflation is still going to be front and center, but he sees the BoC looking at short-term trends. The 3-month annualized growth rate is likely to be in focus, according to Reitzes. They’ll be sensitive to any signs of acceleration, or deceleration. Countries like the US are facing reemerging inflation pressures, and any rate hikes in excess of Canada can spark inflation via a weak loonie.  

IF OTTAWA HAS NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS ABOUT A BANK’S FOUNDERS, A ‘STERN LETTER’ DOESN’T CUT IT

G&M - Rita Trichur (2023-03-06)

It was a quintessential Canadian response to suspected national security threats and possible money laundering.

NAGEL BACKS FASTER QT WITH MORE BIG ECB RATE HIKES POSSIBLE

Yahoo Finance - Alexander Weber (2023-03-01)

Quantitative easing enacted in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis is now triggering hefty losses across Europe after commercial lenders deposited some of the money created with central banks — forcing them into ever-increasing interest payouts as rates are lifted to stem inflation.

BANK OF ENGLAND SAYS DIGITAL POUND "MORE LIKELY THAN NOT"

Finextra (2023-02-28)

Asked by the Committee, on a scale of one to 10, how likely it is that a digital bank central currency will be needed, Cunliffe said: “I'd say, I'm not sure it would be helpful to put a number on it… I'd just say it's more likely than not.”

CANADIAN SECURITIES REGULATORS ENCOURAGE MARKET PARTICIPANTS TO PREPARE FOR THE CESSATION OF CDOR

OSC (2023-02-28)

“The cessation of CDOR is consistent with international restructuring of interest rate benchmarks,” said Stan Magidson, CSA Chair and Chair and CEO of the Alberta Securities Commission. “It is important that market participants make appropriate transition arrangements to prevent business and market disruptions following the cessation date.”

MISTRUST OF XI ENDANGERS ONE OF WALL STREET’S FAVORITE TRADES

Bloomberg - Sofia Horta e Costa, Henry Ren and Tania Chen (2023-02-27)

After triggering a years-long exodus of foreign investors from Chinese markets, President Xi Jinping looked like he’d cracked the formula to revive his economy and lure back global funds. 

WORLD BANK OPENS NOMINATIONS FOR MALPASS SUCCESSOR THURSDAY

Yahoo Finance - Eric Martin (2023-02-23)

The World Bank on Thursday will open a five-week period for nominations to succeed President David Malpass, days after he announced his early departure from the anti-poverty lender, and expects to select a new chief by early May.

TODAY'S DEBT CEILING IS TOMORROW'S DREADED DEBT BOMB

Bloomberg - Karl W. Smith (2023-02-23)

As disconcerting as the US’s current debt situation is, the outlook is even worse. When the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office updated its forecasts last week, it estimated that debt held by the public will climb to $46 trillion by 2033 from $31 trillion currently.
This puts the country one step closer to the dreaded “debt bomb“ scenario, which would make today’s battle over whether to raise the $31 trillion debt ceiling look quaint in comparison.

EMERGING PAYMENT POLICY: CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY AND PAYMENTS CANADA ROLE

Payments Canada - Payments Canada (2023-02-23)

As Payments Canada continues to examine issues and a potential role within CBDC, it will be important to consider Payments Canada’s public policy objectives. These include the continued promotion of safety, soundness and efficiency of our payment systems while making the interests of end-users a priority.

LOOMING U.S. DEFAULT RISK PROMPTS INVESTORS TO CUT SOME DEBT EXPOSURE

Reuters - Davide Barbuscia, Saeed Azhar (2023-02-21)

The U.S. Treasury hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit last month. Unless congress raises or suspends that cap, the government could begin to default on bonds that underpin the global financial system and are considered some of the safest investments.

ASIA CENTRAL BANKS MAY NEED TO KEEP HIKING IF CORE INFLATION STAYS HIGH, IMF SAYS

Bloomberg - Claire Jiao (2023-02-21)

Asia’s central banks may need to raise interest rates further if core inflation does not show clear signs of returning to target, according to the International Monetary Fund.

EURO AREA BRACES FOR ERA OF CENTRAL-BANK LOSSES AFTER QE BINGE

Yahoo Finance - Philip Aldrick (2023-02-20)

“Results will turn negative for many banks already in 2022, because of the mismatch of interest rates on assets and liabilities,” Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno said in an interview. “We finance ourselves now at higher interest rates, which do not match the return of bonds and all sorts of debt in the central bank’s balance sheet.”

3 THINGS THE BANK OF CANADA SUBTLY TOLD US THIS WEEK

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2023-02-20)

But the decision to stay the course was suggestive, given Macklem’s appearance at the House finance committee and Beaudry’s speech at the University of Alberta represented the Bank of Canada’s first opportunities to tweak its message in the wake of the blowout jobs report on Feb. 10. Here’s what you need to know.

SENATE CALLS FOR MORE TRANSPARENCY FROM BANK OF CANADA

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-02-17)

A Senate committee is calling for greater parliamentary oversight of the Bank of Canada as well as increased transparency, wading into a debate around central bank independence at a moment of heightened political interest in monetary policy.

CANADA HAS $300-BILLION CASH BUFFER TO SOFTEN BLOW OF COMING RECESSION, SAYS RBC'S CEO

FP (2023-02-16)

“Unprecedented liquidity” in the market will buoy Canada’s economy as it moves through a modest recession, said the head of the country’s largest bank.
Royal Bank of Canada chief executive Dave McKay, in an interview with BNN Bloomberg, said Canada is headed for a slowdown as higher interest rates designed to curb inflation slow consumer spending.

LARGE RUSSIAN BANKS CUT BACK ON OFZ BUYING IN JAN, SAYS CENTRAL BANK

Reuters (2023-02-16)

Large Russian banks' share of government debt purchases dropped to 59.5% in January, the central bank said on Thursday, down from 90.7% towards the end of 2022, as the finance ministry stopped issuing floating-rate bonds popular with lenders.

WHO COULD REPLACE WORLD BANK PRESIDENT DAVID MALPASS?

Reuters - Valerie Volcovici, Andrea Shalal and David Lawder (2023-02-16)

David Malpass, president of the World Bank, unexpectedly said he would resign in June on Wednesday, leaving open a job that oversees billions of dollars of funding and has a direct impact on poverty, climate change preparation, emergency aid and other issues in developing countries around the globe.

CANADA'S OVERHEATED ECONOMY IS STILL PUTTING UPWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES, SAYS TIFF MACKLEM

CBC (2023-02-16)

The governor's comments come after Statistics Canada's most recent labour force survey revealed the economy added 150,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate hovers around record lows.

NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT: WHY THE BANK IS COMMITTED TO GETTING BACK TO 2%

BOC - Paul Beaudry (2023-02-16)

The Bank is fully committed to returning inflation to the 2% target. For three decades, this target has served Canadians well. And since it represents a sweet spot on the inflation spectrum, it remains the centrepiece of the Bank’s inflation-targeting framework. Keeping inflation stable and predictable at that low level is the best contribution monetary policy can make to the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.1

SUE THE BOE? CITY MINISTER SURPRISES BANKERS WITH A NEW IDEA

Bloomberg - Katherine Griffiths (2023-02-16)

A UK government minister has suggested banks could sue the Bank of England over new rules that will force them to hold more capital for customer loans, potentially increasing borrowing costs for small businesses. 

BIDEN WILL NAME FED’S LAEL BRAINARD AS HIS TOP ECONOMIC ADVISER

Bloomberg - Kate Davidson, Jennifer Jacobs and Josh Wingrove (2023-02-14)

President Joe Biden has decided to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic adviser, with an announcement coming as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.

ROYAL CANADIAN MINT TEMPORARILY LAYS OFF 56 WORKERS AT ITS WINNIPEG FACILITY

G&M (2023-02-13)

The Royal Canadian Mint says it’s temporarily laying off 56 employees at its Winnipeg facility.

DIGITAL POUND POSES RISK TO BANKS: MOODY’S

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-02-13)

“Under the consultation proposals, a digital pound would be a claim directly on the BoE, which would issue and record them on a core ledger of all digital pounds. Private companies would enable end-users to access digital pounds via pass-through wallets that would send transfer and payment instructions to the core ledger,” the report said.

BANK OF CANADA RELEASES MINUTES FOR FIRST TIME: READ THE FULL TEXT HERE

Yahoo Finance (2023-02-09)

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on January 25, 2023.

POWELL CONFESSES 'THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT'

Yahoo Finance (2023-02-08)

"This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted.

MACKLEM REITERATES BOC RATE HIKE PAUSE AS MONETARY POLICY ENTERS NEW PHASE

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-02-08)

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday that he does not expect to continue raising interest rates, reinforcing that the central bank has entered a new phase in its campaign against inflation as sharply higher borrowing costs bring economic growth to a standstill.

BANK OF CANADA TAKES HISTORIC STEP IN IMPROVING TRANSPARENCY WITH RELEASE OF MINUTES

Yahoo Finance (2023-02-08)

On Wednesday, the bank will release minutes of its January meeting at 1:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT), in which the central bank raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% and said it would likely hold off on further increases for now.

MANY BAY STREET ANALYSTS SEE RATE CUTS LATER THIS YEAR, ACCORDING TO BOC SURVEY

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-02-07)

Many Bay Street analysts expect the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates later this year as inflation cools and economic growth stalls, according to a survey published for the first time by the bank on Monday.

AS CENTRAL BANKERS TALK TOUGH ON INFLATION, MARKETS PREPARE FOR RATE CUTS

G&M - Sean Kilpatrick (2023-02-05)

While central bankers continue to talk tough about clamping down on inflation, financial markets are questioning how resolute they will be if price pressures ease and economic growth stalls in the coming quarters as expected.

BIDEN AIDE SAYS NEGOTIATION ON DEBT CEILING IS ‘NONSTARTER’

Yahoo Finance - Tony Czuczka (2023-02-05)

A White House economic adviser said negotiations over raising the US debt ceiling are an “absolute nonstarter” for President Joe Biden, though he’s ready to discuss spending with congressional Republicans.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE DELIVERS SMALL INTEREST RATE HIKE, SIGNALS A ‘COUPLE’ MORE INCREASES NECESSARY TO TACKLE INFLATION

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-02-02)

The U.S. Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday and signalled that a “couple” more rate hikes are still needed to bring inflation under control.

‘POWELL WAS DR. JEKYLL AND MR. HYDE’: WHAT THE STREET IS SAYING AS THE FED HIKES KEY INTEREST RATE

G&M - Darcy Keith (2023-02-02)

The U.S. Federal Reserve Wednesday raised its key interest rate by a quarter-point, its eighth hike since March, while signaling that further rate hikes will be required despite signals inflation is easing. But the words spoken in a later press conference seemed to matter just as much, if not more, to markets - which rebounded from earlier losses.

LEBANON DEVALUES, STILL LEAVES POUND FAR AWAY FROM BLACK MARKET

Yahoo Finance - Dana Khraiche (2023-02-01)

Banque du Liban, the nation’s central bank, on Wednesday set the pound at 15,000 per dollar, devaluing the official rate of 1,500 by 90%, according to people familiar with the matter. It also replaced two separate rates offered on foreign-currency deposits — at 8,000 and 12,000 each — with the new level.

CENTRAL BANKS BOUGHT THE MOST GOLD SINCE 1967 LAST YEAR, WGC SAYS

Reuters (2023-01-31)

Central banks added a whopping 1,136 tonnes of gold worth some $70 billion to their stockpiles in 2022, by far the most of any year since 1967, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday.

FED SET TO IMPOSE SMALLER HIKE, MAY HINT OF FEWER INCREASES

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2023-01-31)

When its latest meeting ends Wednesday, the 19-member policymaking committee is expected to raise its key short-term rate, which affects many business and consumer loans, by a quarter-point. In doing so, it would elevate the rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, its highest level in 15 years. The Fed’s move would follow a half-point rate hike in December and four three-quarter point hikes before that.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POSTS $3.6 BILLION DEFICIT BETWEEN APRIL AND NOVEMBER

Investment Executive (2023-01-31)

Public debt charges were up $6.1 billion or 36.8%, which the finance department attributes to rising interest rates and elevated inflation.

WHY THE BANK OF CANADA CAN'T CUT RATES THIS YEAR, DESPITE WHAT THE MARKET SAYS

Yahoo Finance - Michelle Zadikian (2023-01-30)

On Wednesday, the Bank lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.5 per cent and said it's looking to hold off on further hikes for the time being to assess the impact of higher rates on the economy. It's widely thought that interest rate moves take 12-18 months to fully filter through the economy.

BANK OF CANADA EMERGES AS THE TRENDSETTER ON INTEREST RATES

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2023-01-30)

Jean Boivin, the former Bank of Canada deputy governor, was on a video call organized by the Canadian Association of Business Economics a few hours after the central bank issued its conditional pause on interest rate increases this week.

IT WON’T TAKE MUCH FOR THE ECB TO CRUSH RATE-CUT BETS NEXT WEEK

Bloomberg - Alice Glendhill (2023-01-30)

The stage is set for a clash between traders betting on interest-rate cuts and Christine Lagarde, who’s ready — once again — to hammer home the need to stamp out inflation. 

NETHERLANDS AND JAPAN JOIN US IN RESTRICTING CHIP EXPORTS TO CHINA

The Verge - Jon Porter (2023-01-30)

The new restrictions are expected to prevent the sale of “at least some” of these DUV machines, Bloomberg previously noted, which will further limit the ability of Chinese companies to produce advanced chips and set up production lines. ASML CEO Peter Wennink previously told CNBC that China accounted for around 15 percent of the company’s sales in 2022. 

BANK OF CANADA DELIVERS QUARTER-POINT RATE HIKE, SIGNALS PAUSE TO FURTHER INCREASES

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-01-26)

The Bank of Canada increased interest rates again on Wednesday but said that it expects to hold off on further rate hikes, making it the first major central bank to signal an end to monetary policy tightening.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND FINALLY OFFERS PLAN TO HELP BANK OF CANADA COVER ITS LOSSES

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2023-01-26)

“The minister of finance has recently communicated to me that the government intends to introduce legislative amendments that will allow the bank to retain earnings to offset losses,” Macklem said at a press conference in Ottawa. “It will allow, on a temporary basis, the Bank of Canada to retain earnings rather than return them to the government for the purposes of covering losses.”

U.S. INFLATION ROLLER COASTER PROMPTS FRESH LOOK AT LONG-IGNORED MONEY SUPPLY

Yahoo Finance - Michael S. Derby (2023-01-26)

Money-supply purists have long argued that the country's ever-growing stock of money was an inflation powder keg. It's an argument that lost credibility with policymakers in the record-long economic expansion before the pandemic when M2 rose by more than 80% but inflation never rose sustainably above the Fed's 2% target and spent much of that decade notably below it.

MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE OPENING STATEMENT

BOC (2023-01-26)

Two weeks from now, on February 8, we will publish for the first time a more detailed summary of Governing Council’s deliberations. This summary will provide more insight into our decision making, so I can be brief today. But let me say a few words about our economic outlook.

BANK OF CANADA’S WAR ON INFLATION GENERATES UNCERTAINTY AMONG INVESTORS

G&M - Tim Shufelt (2023-01-25)

Nearly a year after the Bank of Canada declared war on inflation, investors have no idea what’s coming next.

BANK OF CANADA TO RELEASE MEETING SUMMARIES FOR FIRST TIME EVER — BUT IS IT ENOUGH TO IMPROVE TRANSPARENCY?

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2023-01-25)

The Bank of Canada is so poor at documenting what goes on when its leaders sit down to discuss interest rates that it gave itself a failing grade among its peers.
Monetary policy is made behind closed doors for obvious reasons. But in the spirit of transparency, most major central banks release minutes of their deliberations a few weeks after the decision is made. The Federal Reserve in the United States goes so far as to publish full meeting transcripts after five years.
Canada’s central bank does nothing of the sort. The governor might share some words about what was discussed in the opening statement at the quarterly press conference that always follows the release of a revised outlook and an interest-rate decision. That covers four of eight scheduled policy announcements. The other four are followed a day later with a speech by the governor or one of his deputies that updates the central bank’s thinking on the economy. The detail of the policy discussion varies from speech to speech.

BANK OF CANADA LIKELY TO RAISE RATES AGAIN WEDNESDAY — BUT SHOULD IT?

CBC - Pete Evans (2023-01-24)

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise its trend-setting interest rate this week by a quarter of a percentage point, which would bring it to 4.5 per cent.

UK DEFICIT SOARS TO RECORD AS INFLATION BOOSTS DEBT PAYMENTS

Yahoo Finance - Philip Aldrick, Tom Rees (2023-01-24)

The budget deficit stood at £27.4 billion ($34 billion), a record for the month and almost triple the £10.7 billion shortfall a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. Economists had forecast a reading of £17.3 billion.

CENTRAL BANKERS SHOULD PRIORITIZE GROWTH OVER THEIR PRIDE

Bloomberg - Marcus Ashworth (2023-01-24)

Stop. Look. Listen. Then proceed cautiously. That was the advice we were given as children for crossing the road, and it’s pertinent today for central bankers. After failing to stop consumer prices from accelerating, the risk now is that their pride is dented and they all overtighten to prove their inflation-fighting mettle — pushing us into a deeper recession. Having misread the the global economy for much of the past three years, they should consider pausing their rate increases to avoid compounding the felony.  

FED AND BANK OF CANADA HAVE REASON TO PAUSE HIKES, BMO’S JOYCE SAYS

Bloomberg - Derek Decloet (2023-01-24)

The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada can afford to pause interest-rate increases now because inflation pressures are easing rapidly, Bank of Montreal strategist Brent Joyce said. 

LOONIE TO GAIN AS RATE HIKES CEASE: CIBC

Investment Executive - James Langton (2023-01-24)

“We see a broad weakening trend in the U.S. dollar unfolding this year as attention turns to policy tightening in other advanced economies, and the greenback unwinds some of its safe-haven currency bid to come into better alignment with trade fundamentals,” the report said.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO DELIVER FINAL QUARTER-POINT RATE HIKE AS INFLATION COOLS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-01-23)

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to deliver a final quarter-point interest rate increase on Wednesday before pausing its historic monetary policy tightening cycle.

BANK OF CANADA TO HIKE RATES, LEAVE DOOR OPEN FOR MORE: BMO

Better Dwelling (2023-01-23)

Canadian markets have begun discussing rate cuts, and that’s a reason we might not see one this year. BMO Capital Markets wrote to investors over the weekend, outlining their expectations for a rate hike this week. Their forecast currently sees the Bank of Canada (BoC) hitting pause after the next hike, but they warn it might not be the top. Strong fundamentals, inflationary risks, and market expectations may fuel future hikes.

WHAT THE US DEBT-CEILING BATTLE MEANS FOR YOUR MONEY

Bloomberg - Erik Wasson, Claire Ballentine and Suzanne Woolley (2023-01-22)

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.

HOW THE BOJ'S NEW YIELD-CONTROLLING TOOL WORKS

Reuters - Leika Kihara (2023-01-20)

The Bank of Japan this week crafted a new weapon to defend its yield cap and extend the lifespan of its yield control policy, without having to ramp up bond buying and dry up already thinning market liquidity.

RATE HIKES HAVE BEGUN TO QUELL U.S. INFLATION: FED’S MESTER

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2023-01-19)

Mester, who has been president of the Cleveland Fed for eight years, didn’t say how large a rate hike she favored when the Fed’s next meeting ends on Feb. 1. Most economists expect the central bank to announce a smaller quarter-point hike. But Mester noted that the economy and the financial markets “were able to handle” the half-point hike that the Fed carried out in mid-December.

U.S. BANK REGULATOR WEIGHING GIVING MORE INSIGHT INTO ITS SUPERVISORY PROCESS- ACTING HEAD

Reuters (2023-01-18)

The OCC’s escalation framework includes four levels to compel banks to fix issues, starting with a non-public supervisory finding and intensifying to an enforcement action and eventually a growth restriction if the regulator finds that deficiencies have still not been addressed, Hsu said.

BANK OF CANADA APPOINTS NICOLAS VINCENT AS NEW DEPUTY GOVERNOR

Yahoo Finance (2023-01-17)

The Bank of Canada has appointed Nicolas Vincent, an economics professor at HEC Montreal, as a non-executive deputy governor for a two-year term.

BANK OF CANADA NEEDS DEEPER POST-MORTEM OF WHAT WENT WRONG ON INFLATION

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2023-01-17)

The former will be the story of 2023. When asked whether Canada could avoid a recession this year, only one person in a room of about 200 people at the Canadian Club’s annual outlook lunch in Toronto on Jan. 11 raised their hand. Yet investors are starting to wonder if the “soft landing” that central banks promised — without something less than full conviction — might actually be possible. Canadian employers created more than 100,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate dropped to five per cent, despite the most aggressive series of interest rate increases in the Bank of Canada’s history. Maybe Macklem knows what he’s doing.
Stopping inflation might be the easier challenge. Humans are poor at both admitting mistakes and opening our minds to information that contradicts our world view. Charles Darwin used to make a point of taking notes on new information that contradicted his understanding of things because “such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favourable ones.” That’s what it took to come up with the theory of evolution. Central bankers must be equally rigorous in their post-mortems of what went wrong during the pandemic. Some of the criticism of their performances is overdone, but it’s obvious they don’t have as good a read on how the economy works as they thought they did.

THE LOOMING U.S. DEBT-LIMIT CRISIS, SUMMED UP IN 5 POINTS

CBC - Alexander Panetta (2023-01-16)

The debt ceiling was last increased two years ago to its current level, $31.4 trillion, or more than 120 per cent of U.S. GDP.

WHY SCOTIABANK'S CHIEF ECONOMIST THINKS THE BANK OF CANADA WON'T BRING INFLATION BACK TO 2%

FP - Bianca Bharti (2023-01-16)

Perrault made the statement during a discussion on inflation at the Canadian Club’s 46th outlook panel, held on Jan. 11 in Toronto. During the event, Perrault was asked if he believed Macklem’s repeated assertion that the central bank will tame price growth, which has remained outside of its target range of one to three per cent since April 2021.

WHY CENTRAL BANKS SHOULD NOT PUSH AHEAD WITH CBDCS

FT - Tony Yates (2023-01-16)

The private sector crypto world might be imploding in flames, but around the world central banks are pushing on with their own digital asset projects. China has rolled out its central bank digital currency (CBDC) to several cities and it was available for use at the Winter Olympics.

BANK OF CANADA MAY LOSE BILLIONS IN COMING YEARS, THINK TANK WARNS

CBC - Nojoud Al Mallees (2023-01-13)

In the fall, the Bank of Canada posted its first loss in its 87-year history, losing $522 million in its third quarter.

CHINA CENTRAL BANK TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE POLICY-LOAN LIQUIDITY - REUTERS POLL

Yahoo Finance (2023-01-13)

A great majority - 21 traders and analysts - expected the MLF interest rate to stay unchanged at 2.75% this month, while the remaining four respondents expected a small rate cut

JANET YELLEN WARNS US WILL HIT $31.4TN DEBT CEILING NEXT WEEK

FT - James Politi and Lauren Fedor (2023-01-13)

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has warned the US will hit its $31.4tn borrowing limit next week and could run the risk of a damaging debt default starting in early June, setting the stage for a high-stakes fiscal negotiation between the White House and Congress in the coming months. In a letter to congressional leaders on Friday, Yellen said the US would reach the debt ceiling set by Congress on January 19, and the Treasury would begin to take “extraordinary measures”, or “special management steps”, in order to honour its payments.

FREELAND APPOINTS THREE NEW BANK OF CANADA BOARD MEMBERS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2023-01-13)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has appointed three new members to the Bank of Canada’s board of directors, including the first Indigenous board member, bringing the central bank’s oversight group back up to full strength.

JAMIE DIMON SAYS FED 'MAY VERY WELL' RAISE INTEREST RATES TO 6%

Yahoo Finance - Alexandra Semenova (2023-01-11)

This time last year, Dimon was among the first voices on Wall Street to predict – correctly – that Federal Reserve officials would deliver as many as six or seven increases to their benchmark policy rate as prices rose at a historic pace. He said the three or four hikes investors were bracing for at the time were a low estimate.

BRITAIN TO PUSH AHEAD WITH READYING GROUND FOR A DIGITAL POUND

Reuters - Huw Jones (2023-01-11)

Getting the design of a digital pound right is a bigger priority than a rapid launch, Britain's Financial Services Minister Andrew Griffith said on Tuesday.

BILL MORNEAU SLAMS LIBERAL GOVERNMENT’S COVID-19 POLICY FOR PUTTING 'POPULARITY CONTEST' OVER FISCAL PRUDENCE

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2023-01-10)

Morneau argues that policymakers put scoring “political points” and public perception over sound fiscal policy with its federal aid programs in his upcoming book to be released Jan. 17. He describes growing tensions between him and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling it one of the worst moments in his political life leading up to his departure in the summer of 2020 amid the WE Charity scandal.

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS AREN’T DECLARING VICTORY OVER INFLATION YET

Bloomberg (2023-01-09)

Central banks aren’t giving up their inflation fight yet with the peak in interest rates still to come in most economies, but pauses will come at some point in 2023 — and perhaps even pivots.

WHY OSFI HEAD PETER ROUTLEDGE IS ‘OPTIMISTIC AND WARY AT THE SAME TIME’ HEADING INTO 2023

FP - Interview (2023-01-03)

When I got the job, one of the premises was that the risk environment is shifting, uncertainty is greater, volatility is greater. OSFI has to be ready for risks that we see on the horizon. So, climate risk and digitalization of financial services we do see. And then there are those risks over the horizon that we don’t see that are going to come up. At the time I took the job, it was the pandemic. But in February, we had the first war between sovereign states in Europe since the 1940s. I think it’s fair to say that was beyond the horizon when I took the job.

ITALY AIMS TO CUT RETAILERS' DIGITAL PAYMENT COSTS VIA LEVY ON BANKS, LAWMAKERS SAY

Reuters (2022-12-21)

CANADA’S LATEST INFLATION REPORT DOESN’T PROVIDE THE BANK OF CANADA WITH AN EXIT FROM RATE HIKES

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-12-21)

The Bank of Canada signalled earlier this month that it’s looking for an exit from its dizzying interest-rate-hiking cycle. Wednesday’s inflation report is not it.

BANK OF JAPAN JOLTS MARKETS IN SURPRISE CHANGE TO YIELD CURVE POLICY

G&M - Leika Kihara (2022-12-20)

The Bank of Japan shocked markets on Tuesday with a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that allows long-term interest rates to rise more, a move aimed at easing some of the costs of prolonged monetary stimulus.

TIFF MACKLEM SAYS HE WON'T SETTLE FOR ANYTHING LESS THAN A RETURN TO 2% INFLATION

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-12-20)

The consumer price index was hovering around seven per cent in October, better than 8.1 per cent this summer, but still a long way from home. Getting there could require considerable pain.

BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR TIFF MACKLEM KNOWS HE HAS SOME EXPLAINING TO DO

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-12-19)

Canadians have good reason to be upset with Tiff Macklem. Even Tiff Macklem says so.

At the start of the year, the Bank of Canada expected inflation would be close to 2 per cent by the end of 2022. It’s roughly 7 per cent.

“That’s a very big forecast error,” the central bank Governor said in a year-end interview with The Globe and Mail. “So, yes, we have some explaining to do.” Outside the Bank of Canada’s Ottawa headquarters, a snowstorm raged, a fitting metaphor for the kind of year the 61-year-old has had.

When the year began, the bank maintained a record-low policy interest rate of 0.25 per cent, and an explicit pledge to keep it there until the pandemic-battered Canadian economy had returned to full speed. It ends the year with a policy rate of 4.25 per cent, a 15-year high.

In between, Mr. Macklem and his colleagues have raised interest rates seven times, as they race to cool an overheated economy in an effort to tamp down the highest inflation rate in nearly 40 years.

The bank’s chief responsibility is maintaining low and stable inflation. But the inflation rate this year is not just far above where the central bank thought it would be, it’s in a whole different orbit from the bank’s long-standing target of 2 per cent.

As inflation approached and then exceeded 8 per cent over the spring and summer, Mr. Macklem and his team responded with bigger and bigger rate hikes – including an increase of a full percentage point in July, the biggest single step up in almost a quarter-century.

“There’s no question, it’s been intense,” Mr. Macklem said. “And it hasn’t just been intense for me. It’s been intense for everybody at the Bank of Canada. But let’s face it, it’s been intense for every Canadian. Everybody’s lives have been hugely disrupted.”

As first inflation and then rates soared, Canadians have felt the sting of both. Housing values have slumped; mortgage costs have surged. Grocery prices are up 11 per cent year over year. Many households are stretched to their financial limits. The central bank has itself acknowledged that rate increases could tip the economy into recession.

All of this made Mr. Macklem the leading economic newsmaker of the year – and, to hear some people talk, a leading public enemy. Critics at both ends of the political spectrum have questioned Mr. Macklem’s motives and competence. He has faced accusations of acting too slowly on inflation, of irresponsibly fuelling inflation through the bank’s expansion of the money supply, of making workers and households pay the price for his mistakes with a devastating succession of rate increases.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre wants him fired. Lana Payne, the president of the largest private-sector union in the country, Unifor, accused him of declaring a class war. Desjardins economist Randall Bartlett lampooned him in a seasonal broadside, “How the Governor Stole Christmas.”

Mr. Macklem isn’t alone. Central bankers around the world have faced a reckoning over how they misread the rise of inflation. And their tough response – one of the most rapid and globally synchronized monetary-policy tightening episodes on record – has drawn howls from investors and politicians alike.

Mr. Macklem used his last speech of 2022 – an event last week in Vancouver – to deliver something of a mea culpa to Canadians. As in that speech, his conversation with The Globe a few days later candidly discussed the bank’s policy stumbles and the reasons behind them, and acknowledged the pain that the aggressive rate policy is inflicting as the bank tries to get the inflation genie back in the bottle – while looking toward what he believes are brighter days ahead.

“Canadians are being harmed by inflation, they’re feeling the pain. They’re also feeling the strain of rapid increases in interest rates. They’re asking a lot of tough questions; their elected representatives are asking a lot of tough questions. I understand that,” he said. “They should be asking tough questions. They should expect a lot from their central bank.”

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK BARS POLICY-MAKERS FROM SPECULATING AFTER BACKLASH, FED SCANDALS

G&M (2022-12-19)

The European Central Bank has banned its top officials from picking stocks and bonds or making short-term trades after a string of scandals at the Federal Reserve and backlash at home.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE FORESEES ANOTHER YEAR OF RISING INTEREST RATES FOR 2023

CBC - Don Pittis (2022-12-15)

Canadian borrowers hoping that the U.S. central bank would signal that rate hikes were over were once again disappointed after the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell not only hiked rates by a half a point to a 15-year high but promised more increases in the new year.

ECB IS DOUBLING DOWN ON RATE HIKES JUST AS A RECESSION BITES

Yahoo Finance - Craig Stirling, Jana Randow and Alexander Weber (2022-12-15)

With inflation in double digits and projected by officials to stay above their 2% goal for years to come, this week’s meeting both rounded off six months of drastic action and set the tone for further forceful monetary tightening.

BANK OF CANADA DEPUTY SIGNALS END IS NEAR ON RATE HIKES, AS CENTRAL BANK BECOMES ‘DATA DEPENDENT’

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-12-09)

The Bank of Canada could pause interest rate hikes as early as next month as it shifts to a more “data-dependent” approach to monetary policy, although the bank is still prepared to be “forceful” if necessary, deputy governor Sharon Kozicki said on Thursday.

CHINA TO SELL 750 BILLION YUAN IN BONDS TO BOOST ECONOMY

Bloomberg (2022-12-09)

“If these means additional funds, it suggests a highly proactive economic policy for 2023 - confirming the stance alluded to at the Politburo conference,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. “Just the size and dates are making it very confusing — the maturing special bond is widely expected to be rolled over.”

BIG BANKS RAISE PRIME RATE TO 6.45% FOLLOWING BANK OF CANADA HIKE

FP (2022-12-09)

Royal Bank of Canada, TD Canada Trust, Scotiabank, CIBC, Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada, Equitable Bank and Laurentian Bank of Canada all raised their prime rate by 50 basis points from 5.95 per cent to 6.45 per cent starting Thursday, Dec. 8.

BANK OF CANADA DELIVERS HALF-POINT RATE HIKE, SIGNALS END OF AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN MAY BE NEAR

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-12-08)

The Bank of Canada increased interest rates for the seventh consecutive time on Wednesday, surprising markets with another oversized move while signaling that it may be nearing the end of its historic rate-hike cycle.

TRUMP ORGANIZATION FOUND GUILTY OF TAX FRAUD SCHEME

Reuters - Luc Cohen, Karen Freifeld (2022-12-07)

Donald Trump's real estate company was convicted on Tuesday of carrying out a 15-year-long criminal scheme to defraud tax authorities, adding to the legal woes facing the former U.S. president as he campaigns for the office again in 2024.
The Trump Organization - which operates hotels, golf courses, and other real estate around the world - was found guilty of paying personal expenses for top executives including former chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg, and issuing bonus checks to them as if they were independent contractors.

YES, THE BANK OF CANADA HAS WAGED A ‘CLASS WAR’ – BUT NOT THE ONE YOU THINK

G&M - John Rapley (2022-12-05)

Central bankers must be feeling punch-drunk. For years, they strode like superheroes. We praised their genius, bestowed them with titles such as “maestro” – as one journalist labelled Alan Greenspan in a now-infamous encomium – and revelled in the New Jerusalem to which they’d delivered us: a Promised Land of low inflation and endless credit, where all we had to do to get rich was buy a house and watch it grow.

CANADA 'WATCHING CLOSELY' AS BIDEN PRESSED TO FIX INFLATION REDUCTION ACT 'GLITCHES'

Yahoo Finance (2022-12-05)

"It's something we're watching closely and we're engaged with our European counterparts, as well as our American counterparts, to make sure that we're working together," Trudeau told a news conference Monday.

THE BANK OF CANADA’S INDEPENDENCE TAKES ANOTHER HIT

G&M - Konrad Kabasuki (2022-12-02)

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is back in the hot seat after the central bank this week announced a $522-million third-quarter loss, the first such red ink in the institution’s nearly nine-decade history. More losses are expected in the coming months, creating an awkward situation for the federal government and raising inevitable questions about the bank’s independence.

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS BRACE FOR ‘GREENFLATION’ AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Yahoo Finance - Siegfrid Alegado and Anup Roy (2022-12-02)

The shift to green energy may be “inflationary and even slightly stagflationary,” Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Friday, speaking virtually on a panel at a central bank conference in Bangkok. “I stress might, we don’t know yet.”

BANK OF CANADA COULD DELIVER ANOTHER HALF-POINT HIKE NEXT WEEK

FP - Larysa Harapyn (2022-12-02)

Brett House, fellow at Public Policy Forum, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about what the latest GDP reading on Canada’s economy means to the Bank of Canada which will decide on interest rates on Dec. 7.

BANK OF CANADA HAS ROOM TO STOP HIKING BEFORE FED, SURVEY SHOWS

Bloomberg (2022-12-02)

The Bank of Canada has leeway to end its interest-rate hiking cycle in coming months even if the Federal Reserve keeps pushing borrowing costs higher next year, according to economists.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO KEEP RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER TO COMBAT INFLATION, POWELL SAYS

G&M - Christopher Rugaber (2022-11-30)

The Federal Reserve will push rates higher than previously expected and keep them there for an extended period, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday, in remarks likely intended to underscore the Fed’s single-minded focus on combating stubborn inflation.

WHERE IS THE GOVERNMENT’S PROMISED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS? WE SURE COULD USE IT

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-11-29)

Last April, when the Trudeau government tabled a budget amid some of the most difficult economic questions in decades, it said it was going to seek help finding answers.

INTEREST RATES NEED TO KEEP RISING TO FIGHT INFLATION, TIFF MACKLEM TELLS MPS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-11-24)

Parliamentarians questioned Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem about inflation and historic financial losses at the central bank on Wednesday, with top opposition politicians looking to frame the bank’s continuing dilemmas to their political advantage.

FED MINUTES SHOW 'SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY' SUPPORT SLOWING PACE OF RATE HIKES

Yahoo Finance - Jennifer Schonberger (2022-11-24)

A “substantial majority” of Fed officials believe it will soon be time to slow down the central bank's current pace of rate hikes.

THE PROBLEM OF THE BANK OF CANADA’S BALLOONING BALANCE SHEET

Yahoo Finance - STEVE AMBLER AND JEREMY KRONICK (2022-11-24)

The Bank of Canada’s ballooning balance sheet has received lots of attention lately. From $120 billion in early March 2020 it grew over the next 12 months to $575 billion and it still stands at $414 billion today, more than three times what it was. That happened because in response to the pandemic the Bank purchased Government of Canada bonds from commercial banks. It added the bonds to the asset side of its balance sheet and paid for them by boosting “settlement balances” — basically, the commercial banks’ bank accounts with it — on the liability side. Voilà, a ballooned balance sheet.

BANK OF CANADA BETTING HIGH JOB VACANCIES WILL CUSHION RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-11-21)

As the Bank of Canada squeezes the economy with higher interest rates, central-bank economists are betting that unemployment won’t spike as much as in previous downturns because of the elevated level of job vacancies across the country.

CARLYLE SAYS WORST OF YEN LOSSES OVER WITH PEAK DOLLAR

Yahoo Finance - Chikako Mogi and Takako Taniguchi (2022-11-18)

A 50 basis-point hike in December accompanied by hawkish rhetoric may end up pushing the yen past its three-decade low of 151.95 against the dollar. After that, the Japanese currency is more likely to strengthen, based on his views for the Fed, Thomas said.

EURO ZONE BANKS TO REPAY 296 BLN EUROS IN ECB LOANS

Reuters (2022-11-18)

This is less than the roughly 500 billion euros many analysts expected for the first voluntary repayment window of the ECB's Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) since terms were changed last month.

BANKS NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SHADOW BANKS

Bloomberg - PAUL J. DAVIES (2022-11-17)

What do Bill Hwang, the disgraced US investor, and Liz Truss, Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister, have in common? They were behind two of the multiple mini-crises in recent years that have gotten investors, bankers and regulators sweating about systemic risks for financial markets and investment funds. What people aren’t talking about enough, however, is the knock-on effect for banks.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK POLICY-MAKERS CAUTION AGAINST RAISING INTEREST RATES TOO FAST

G&M (2022-11-15)

The European Central Bank needs to keep raising interest rates but must not move too fast to avoid unnecessarily exacerbating a downturn, two policy-makers said on Monday, with one of them making the case for slowing the pace of policy tightening soon.

BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR MACKLEM HAS 'DECLARED CLASS WAR ON WORKING PEOPLE': UNIFOR PRESIDENT SOCIAL SHARING

CBC - Peter Zimonjic, Catherine Cullen (2022-11-15)

"Rather than developing a tailored response intended to slow profits, stop profiteering, fix supply chain bottlenecks and help workers keep up, policy makers have taken to blaming workers instead — including the governor of the Bank of Canada, who has basically declared class war on working people in this country," said Unifor president Lana Payne. 

EUROPE’S SOVEREIGN DEBT CAN’T KEEP GOING UP FOREVER

Bloomberg (2022-11-15)

Time and again, Europe’s leaders have pledged to address a looming threat to their union: excessive government debt. Yet time and again, events — first the pandemic, now a war-related energy shock — have undermined their plans, making the problem larger.

INVESTING PERSONAL FINANCE EDITORS' PICK FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL—HAUNTED BY THE GHOST OF PAUL VOLCKER—COULD TANK THE ECONOMY

Forbes - Jonathan Ponciano (2022-11-14)

Some months after Jerome Powell became Federal Reserve Chair in early 2018, the former attorney and longtime investment banker began carrying around a new memoir by Paul Volcker: Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government. “I actually thought I should buy 500 copies of his book and just hand them out at the Fed," Powell quipped at a conference in October 2019, just two months before Volcker passed away at 92. "I didn’t do that, but it’s a book I strongly recommend, and we can all hope to live up to some part of who he is."

THE BANK OF CANADA IS WARNING CANADIANS TO BRACE FOR A ROUGH WINTER

CBC - Peter Armstrong (2022-11-13)

For years now, central banks around the world have helped consumers and businesses weather economic storms. In crisis after crisis, they cut interest rates to help people get through. They printed money and bought bonds to prop up markets.

BANK OF CANADA RATE FORECAST GETS YET ANOTHER UPWARD REVISION AT BMO

Better Dwelling (2022-11-10)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised many with its rate hike earlier this month. Despite the market pricing in 75 basis points (bps), the central bank went with a 50 bps move. At 3.75%, the policy rate is now the highest in over a decade, and many assumed a smaller hike indicated we were close to peak. Not exactly. 

BOE’S FORECASTS UNDER FIRE FROM FORMER UK RATE SETTERS

Yahoo Finance - Philip Aldrick (2022-11-10)

John Vickers, a former chief economist who joined the central bank in 1998, will say in his Beesley lecture in London on Wednesday night that the central bank has fallen short and must be bolder to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

HOW IS IT PRUDENCE WHEN FREELAND SPENDS $20 BILLION OVER BUDGET?

FP - Franco Terrazzano (2022-11-10)

The federal government is on track to blow the spending target it set in April by $20 billion. That’s astonishing when we’re just a little more than halfway through the budget year. But here’s the most amazing part: Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland called her fiscal update “prudent.”

LIBERALS WORKING ON POLICIES TO ENSURE CARBON TAX REMAINS IN PLACE FOR YEARS TO COME

FP - Gabriel Friedman (2022-11-09)

The idea that releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere should cost money — known as carbon pricing — sits at the center of the federal Liberals’ plan to limit climate change, and now they’re working on policies to ensure that it remains in place in Canada for years to come.
Last month, Jonathan Wilkinson, minister of natural resources, told a crowd in downtown Toronto, that the federal Liberals plan to introduce a policy to ensure carbon pricing not only remains in place through at least 2030, but also ramps up during that time, from $50 per tonne to $170 per tonne.

THE RETURN OF RED CHINA

Foreign Affairs - Kevin Rudd (2022-11-09)

In 1978, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping announced that his country would make a break with the past. After decades of political purges, economic autarky, and suffocating social control under Mao Zedong, Deng began stabilizing Chinese politics, removing bans on private enterprise and foreign investment and giving individuals greater freedom in their daily lives. This switch, termed “reform and opening,” led to pragmatic policies that improved Beijing’s relations with the West and lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese people from poverty. Although China remained authoritarian, Deng shared power with other senior party leaders—unlike Mao. And when Deng left office, his successors continued down much the same path.

DON'T PICK ON THE PRAIRIES

FP - Diane Francis (2022-11-08)

A newly announced Saskatchewan first act and the proposed Alberta sovereignty act aim to profoundly reshape this country by finally taking a stand against the federal government’s propensity to control areas of provincial jurisdiction.
On Nov. 1, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe tabled Bill 88, which will assert provincial control over energy development, exploration and the production of electricity within the province. The legislation also seeks to unilaterally amend the Saskatchewan Act and the Canadian Constitution, to say that natural resource development is “critical to the future well-being and prosperity of Saskatchewan and its people.”

SPEECH BY TIFF MACKLEM, GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF CANADA

OSFI - Tiff Macklem (2022-11-07)

The Evolution of Canadian Labour Markets

BANK OF ENGLAND ANNOUNCES BIGGEST RATE HIKE IN 30 YEARS

CBC (2022-11-04)

The central bank boosted its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, to three per cent, after consumer price inflation returned to a 40-year high in September. The aggressive move comes even as the bank predicted a two-year economic contraction through June 2024, which would be the longest recession since at least 1955, according to the Office for National Statistics.

TRUDEAU VOWS 2% TAX ON BUYBACKS, BOOSTS CLEAN-TECH CREDITS

Yahoo Finance - Randy Thanthong-Knight and Geoffrey Morgan (2022-11-04)

The buyback tax will be imposed on the net value of all types of share repurchases by public corporations in Canada. It is double the size of the 1% excise tax on repurchases that was signed into law by US President Joe Biden as part of the Inflation Reduction Act unveiled in August.

FED PULLS THE OLD BAIT AND SWITCH AND INVESTORS ARE LEFT KICKING AIR

FP - David Rosenberg (2022-11-04)

Back then, Powell intimated that an inversion would signal the need for the Fed to begin thinking of easing policy. The spread between three-month rates and the 18-month forward expectation of the three-month rate touched two basis points in recent days, and is well off the nearby highs of 130 basis points, and the best the chair could say was “it’s not inverted.”

BOC’S MACKLEM SAYS INTEREST RATE HIKES ARE NEARING AN END, BUT TO EXPECT BORROWING COSTS TO RISE BEFORE LEVELLING OUT

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-11-03)

The Bank of Canada is approaching the end of its rate hike campaign, but Canadians should expect borrowing costs to rise further before the pause, the central bank’s governor, Tiff Macklem, said Tuesday evening. Inflation remains far too high, Mr. Macklem told the Senate committee on banking, commerce and the economy. At the same time, the Canadian economy is expected to “stall” in the coming quarters, he said. This puts the central bank in a precarious spot. “If we don’t do enough, Canadians will continue to endure the hardship of high inflation. And they will come to expect persistently high inflation, which will require much higher interest rates and, potentially, a severe recession to control inflation,” Mr. Macklem told the Senate committee. He was there to explain the bank’s latest interest rate hike, announced last week. “If we do too much, we could slow the economy more than needed. And we know that has harmful consequences for people’s ability to service their debts, for their jobs and for their businesses.” The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points last Wednesday. (There are 100 basis points in a percentage point.) The move was smaller than financial markets had expected, but still brought the policy rate to 3.75 per cent – the highest level since early 2008. Mr. Macklem and his team have now raised rates six times since March, one of the fastest rate-hike cycles in decades. The crucial question is how much further the bank intends to go. Financial markets expect the bank to announce additional 25-basis-point increases in December and January, bringing the policy rate to a resting place of 4.25 per cent. Mr. Macklem shrugged off a question from Senator Pierrette Ringuette about an end point for interest rate hikes. “It’s pretty clear we think it needs to go up, but we do think we’re getting closer to the end,” he said. “That gives you a broad indication there. Yes, there’s a bit of space within that. As we get closer, as we get more information, we’ll make those decisions in real time.” The Bank of Canada isn’t alone in increasing borrowing costs. Central banks around the world are rapidly raising interest rates, in one of the most comprehensive global monetary policy tightening episodes on record. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the world’s largest and most important central bank, is expected to announce another 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money. The goal of the increases is to reduce how much consumers want to buy, and how many workers businesses want to hire, which would in turn slow the pace of price and wage growth. In other words, the Bank of Canada is intentionally slowing down the economy in an effort to restore price stability. Rate hikes are already squeezing the Canadian housing market, with house prices down around 10 per cent from the peak earlier this year. Spending on other big-ticket items, such as furniture and appliances, is also trailing off. The outlook for the broader economy has darkened. The bank’s latest economic forecasts, published last week, show near-zero economic growth in the next three quarters. It now thinks there is a roughly 50-50 chance that Canada will experience several quarters of negative growth – a common definition of a recession. That will mean a rise in unemployment. “We are aware that this will tend to affect the most vulnerable workers the most. It will be a difficult transition for some. But there’s not really an alternative,” Mr. Macklem said. “We need a period of low growth … We’ve got to get the labour market into better balance.” The inflation picture is mixed. The rate of annual consumer price index inflation has trended down in recent months, thanks largely to falling gasoline prices. CPI inflation was 6.9 per cent in September, compared to a four-decade high of 8.1 per cent in June. The bank’s target is 2 per cent. At the same time, a growing number of goods and services are experiencing oversized price increases, making inflation harder to avoid. Two-thirds of the components of the consumer price index experienced annual price jumps of more than 5 per cent in September. Canadians are being hit particularly hard at the grocery store, where food prices rose 11.4 per cent year-over-year in September – the biggest jump since 1981.

U.S. RAISES INTEREST RATE AGAIN BUT HINTS THAT HIKING POLICY MAY SOON PIVOT

CBC - Pete Evans (2022-11-03)

That's the bank's way of saying that after having raised its rate five times in barely six months, it is getting closer to leaving the policy rate where it is while it assesses the impact of its increases so far.

AGGRESSIVE BANK OF CANADA RATE HIKES COULD ADD MORE STRAIN ON OTTAWA’S DEBT SERVICING

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-11-03)

“I think (rising debt costs and recession risks) go hand-in-hand really, to be honest,” Bartlett said. “It’s really just a function of an economic downturn — revenue growth slows, expense growth rises as a result of that. Then you layer on the gradual effects of higher inflation feeding into higher spending, plus higher interest rates which are leading to the economic downturn. So, it’s a bit of a perfect storm for a weaker fiscal forecast.”

BOC’S MACKLEM SAYS INTEREST RATE HIKES ARE NEARING AN END, BUT TO EXPECT BORROWING COSTS TO RISE BEFORE LEVELLING OUT

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-11-02)

The Bank of Canada is approaching the end of its rate hike campaign, but Canadians should expect borrowing costs to rise further before the pause, the central bank’s governor, Tiff Macklem, said Tuesday evening.

HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE MAKES (AND LOSES) MONEY

Yahoo Finance (2022-11-02)

Normally the Federal Reserve makes a profit from its balance sheet, but with higher interest rates it is now in the red. WSJ explains how the Federal Reserve makes money, what it does with it, and what happens now.

FED SET TO RAISE RATES BY 75 BASIS POINTS ONCE AGAIN, POWELL TO TALK HIKE PATH

Yahoo Finance - Jennifer Schonberger (2022-11-02)

That level of rate hike would bring the central bank’s policy rate, the federal funds rate, to a new range of 3.75% to 4% — its highest level since the end of 2007— from a current range between 3% and 3.25%.

AMID GROWING CRITICISM, MACKLEM SAYS BANK OF CANADA'S INDEPENDENCE ISN'T UNDER THREAT

CBC - Nojoud Al Mallees (2022-10-31)

"I do not have any concerns about the bank's independence being under threat," Macklem said in an interview with The Canadian Press on Wednesday.

BAD S&P EARNINGS PLAYING INTO FED HANDS

Bloomberg - Vildana Hajric and Katherine Greifeld (2022-10-31)

Was it good or bad this week when Alphabet Inc. told investors that advertising demand that helped swell its top line 50% in two years is starting to soften? Depends on what you mean by bad, and rarely has an argument over definitions meant more for markets and the economy.

JAPAN SPENT RECORD $42 BILLION IN OCTOBER TO PROP UP YEN

Bloomberg - Yoshiaki Nohara and Emi Urabe (2022-10-31)

Japan spent a record 6.3 trillion yen ($42.4 billion) in October to counter the yen’s sharp slide against the dollar, as it tried to limit speculative moves adding to pressure on the currency.

BANK OF CANADA SHOULD RELEASE THE INFLATION INDEX DATA IT’S USING: BMO

Better Dwelling (2022-10-31)

Canada’s oldest bank would like a little more clarity from the country’s central bank, going forward. BMO Economics wrote to investors this week, arguing the Bank of Canada (BoC) needs to be more transparent about their inflation data. After delivering a smaller-than-expected rate hike, the BoC presented a chart to justify its move. The data presented isn’t a regular measure used by markets, and BMO had trouble recreating it. In the future, BMO is requesting more regular releases of this non-traditional measure, since it has a significant impact on the market. 

AS CANADA FACES POTENTIAL RECESSION, FREELAND TO GIVE FALL ECONOMIC STATEMENT NOV. 3

Investment Executive - Nojoud Al Mallees, Canadian Press, Mia Rabson (2022-10-31)

“We can’t support every single Canadian in the way we did with the emergency measures that we put in place at the height of the pandemic,” she said Oct. 19 in a speech to the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association in Windsor, Ont.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THE UNCO-ORDINATED, SIMULTANEOUS RATE HIKES BY CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD

G&M - Todd Hirsch (2022-10-28)

It seemed inevitable. The fifty basis point rate hike today by the Bank of Canada might have surprised those who expected a larger increase. Still, it has a lot of people perplexed. Some are even angry.

BANK OF CANADA SWERVES IN 'GAME OF CHICKEN' WITH INFLATION: WHAT ECONOMISTS SAY

FP - Stephanie Huges (2022-10-27)

The Bank acknowledged that while inflation is off its peak, it still remains too high. In the accompanying monetary policy report, the central bank is now expecting inflation to cool to three per cent in late 2023 before returning to the two per cent target by 2024.

ECB TO RAISE INTEREST RATES, LIKELY TO TRIM BANK SUBSIDIES

Reuters - Balaz Koranyi, Francesco Canepa (2022-10-27)

The European Central Bank will raise interest rates again on Thursday and likely reel in a key subsidy to commercial banks, taking another big step in tightening policy to fight off a historic surge in inflation.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ANOTHER SIZEABLE RATE HIKE TODAY

Yahoo Finance (2022-10-26)

Today's rate hike would make it the sixth consecutive time the bank raises interest rates, making it the fastest monetary policy tightening in its history.

MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE OPENING STATEMENT

BOC - Tiff Macklem (2022-10-26)

Today, we raised the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. This is the sixth consecutive increase since March. Quantitative tightening continues and is complementing increases in the policy rate. We also expect our policy rate will need to rise further. How much further will depend on how monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding to this tightening cycle.

FROM LEFT AND RIGHT, POLITICAL BACKLASH TO BANK OF CANADA GROWS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-10-25)

The New Democratic Party is criticizing the Bank of Canada’s rapid interest rate increases, further complicating the political environment for the central bank as it attempts to get inflation under control.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO DELIVER ANOTHER LARGE RATE HIKE AS IT CONTINUES INFLATION FIGHT

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-10-24)

The Bank of Canada is expected to deliver another large interest rate increase this week, as central bank officials remain more concerned about doing too little to combat inflation than doing too much and causing a recession.

'FREELAND DOCTRINE' COULD SET THE WORLD ON A PATH TO A NEW TRADE COLD WAR

CBC - Don Pittis (2022-10-24)

In a speech to the Brookings Institution on Oct. 11 that is still making waves around the world, called variously — though not by her — a "manifesto" or the "Freeland Doctrine," the deputy PM and finance minister laid out groundwork for a new global trade regime.

NEW U.K. LEADER TO FACE HIGHEST GOVERNMENT DEBT IN 60 YEARS

Investment Executive - Danica Kirka (2022-10-24)

Public borrowing rose to 98% of economic output in September as rampant inflation increased interest payments on what the government owed, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. That’s higher than at any point since 1963, when Britain was still paying off debts accumulated during World War II.

PRESS CONFERENCE: MONETARY POLICY REPORT – OCTOBER 2022

BOC - BOC (2022-10-24)

Tune in October 26th, 11 AM, via above link for press conference coverage.

OSFI’S ANNUAL RISK OUTLOOK – FISCAL YEAR 2022-23

OSFI (2022-10-24)

This document provides an update to OSFI’s 2022-2023 ARO to include these environmental factors and OSFI’s Regulatory and Supervisory responses.  The annex also notes modifications to policy releases.

MARK CARNEY SAYS FISCAL DISCIPLINE 'IMPERATIVE' TO COMBAT GLOBAL INFLATION, INSTABILITY

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-10-21)

“In an environment where we have left the world of low-for-long interest rates (and) low volatility, in an environment where borrowing costs are going to be higher — in my judgment, higher not just in the short-term, but in the medium-term — fiscal discipline is imperative,” Carney said during testimony at the Senate banking committee on Oct. 20.
Carney said Canadian governments should take heed. He said targeted aid to households most affected by inflation was justifiable, but that otherwise it’s time to reduce deficits. With the benefit of hindsight, Carney also made the point that federal fiscal supports that were necessary through much of the pandemic went on longer than warranted.

LEBANON APPROVES SOME BANKING LAW CHANGES DEMANDED BY IMF

Yahoo Finance (2022-10-19)

“We agreed on a law to lift banking secrecy with some amendments where we widely expanded the number of groups that can ask to lift banking secrecy,” the head of parliament's finance and budget committee, Ibrahim Kanaan, said in a tweet. “Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund have not stopped, and we have been in constant communication in the past days and hours so there won't be flaws in the agreement that Lebanon aspires to.”

HOW HIGH COULD INTEREST RATES GO?

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-10-19)

Many economists put the terminal rate, or the likely rate the Bank will max out at before cutting, at four or 4.25 per cent. The Bank of Canada’s Oct. 17 business outlook survey and its accompanying survey of consumer expectations found that both businesses and consumers are expecting short-term inflation to persist and a recession to be around the corner. Despite the gloom, many economists maintained their calls for a four-per-cent peak in interest rate hikes, arguing that the findings could have been much worse.

WESTERN COUNTRIES ALREADY EMBRACING ‘FRIEND-SHORING’ TO REDUCE TRADE WITH AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES, FREELAND SAYS

G&M - Steven Chase (2022-10-18)

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says leading Western countries are setting an example by embracing “friend-shoring,” or shifting trade to friendly partners and liked-minded democracies: an approach that would curb some commercial relations with countries such as Russia and China.

BRITISH PM TRUSS APOLOGISES FOR ECONOMIC PLAN, SPENDING CUTS TO COME

Reuters - Sachin Ravikumar (2022-10-18)

Prime Minister Liz Truss apologised for threatening Britain's economic stability after she was forced to scrap her vast tax-cutting plans and embark on a programme of "eye-watering" public spending cuts instead.

FRANCE’S CENTRAL BANK BOSS SAYS UK CRISIS SHOWS RISK OF ‘VICIOUS LOOP’

FT - Martin Arnold (2022-10-18)

France’s central bank head has warned that the recent turmoil in the UK’s bond markets illustrates the “vicious loop” governments face if they undermine efforts by rate-setters to curb soaring inflation.

ALL THE EMPEROR’S MEN: HOW XI JINPING BECAME CHINA’S UNRIVALLED LEADER

FT (2022-10-18)

Politics is personnel, especially in China’s Communist party system.

CHIEF ACTUARY OF THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA UNVEILS EXTERNAL PEER REVIEW PANEL FOR 31ST ACTUARIAL REPORT ON THE CANADA PENSION PLAN

OSFI (2022-10-17)

The panel members include Mr. Stephen Butterfield, Mr. Michel St-Germain and Ms. Jill Wagman. They are all Fellows of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) and Fellows of the Society of Actuaries (SOA). Each panel member has extensive experience in risk management, governance, funding, and design of pension plans.

TIFF MACKLEM ON WHY CANADIANS SHOULD TRUST HIM TO BRING DOWN INFLATION

CBC - Video (2022-10-12)

The Governor of the Bank of Canada is dedicated to cooling off inflation. He's raised interest rates at a faster clip than other G7 countries, and there are signs it may be starting to work. But could the tactic also tip us into a recession? Paul Haavardsrud asks Tiff Macklem if there's still a chance to steer the Good Ship Economy in for a soft landing.

THE FED’S INTEREST RATE HIKE JUST MADE THE BANK OF CANADA’S JOB FIGHTING INFLATION HARDER

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-10-11)

The Federal Reserve has just given the Bank of Canada an awful lot to think about.

On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank did a lot more than raise its policy interest rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point, to a range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent, a 14-year high. It raised the stakes in the global battle against inflation. It set the bar much higher for the peak of interest rates. It placed the world’s biggest economy on the edge of recession as it pursues this steeper rate path.

Now Canada’s central bank – facing different conditions than the Fed, but in pursuit of the same inflation-vanquishing goal – will have to decide what the strikingly altered picture painted by its U.S. counterpart means for Canadian monetary policy. In trying to strike the right balance in interest rates that will put inflation back in its cage without derailing the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada now must consider how the Fed’s new stance changes that balance – and how much it can afford to diverge its own policy from that of its huge neighbour.

The members of the Federal Open Market Committee – the body that sets rates – projected that the benchmark rate will need to rise by at least another full percentage point by the end of this year, and will likely peak at somewhere between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent next year. That’s nearly one percentage point higher than the Fed was talking about in the summer – a striking leap in expectations in the space of a couple of months.

The FOMC members also slashed their forecast for U.S. economic growth to a puny 0.2 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent next year, down from July’s projection of 1.7 per cent in both years. Such an anemic growth pace suggests a U.S. economy one sneeze away from full-on contraction. The committee sees unemployment rising next year to mildly above the estimated long-term normal level.

It all implies that the Fed is braced to put the U.S. economy into a stall, teetering on the precipice of recession, in order to tame inflation – a stance that Fed chair Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday.

“No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession, or if so, how significant that recession would be,” Mr. Powell said in his post-announcement news conference.

“The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that [interest rate] policy needs to be more restrictive, or restrictive for longer. Nonetheless, we’re committed to getting inflation back down to 2 per cent.”

The Fed’s course correction follows an August inflation report that showed alarming increases in core measures of inflation – even after already substantial rate increases this year, as well as evidence that the U.S. economy has already slowed. The apparent stubbornness of inflation has caused the Fed to toughen its talk, and back it up with a considerably steeper path and higher peak for rates.

The Bank of Canada, which has also been raising its policy rate aggressively and had already raised its rate to 3.25 per cent earlier this month, is facing somewhat different conditions. Canada’s inflation rate is more than a full percentage point below that of the United States, and both Canada’s overall inflation rate and core measures fell more than expected last month. Canadian inflation was never as high as that of the U.S., its economic growth during the COVID-19 recovery has been generally less robust, and its central bank began tightening policy earlier than the Fed did.

Most forecasters have assumed that the Bank of Canada’s key rate would peak at 4 per cent at the most. Many believe that the bank is poised to slow the pace of rate increases as soon as its next policy decision in late October, and could put its rate hikes on hold by early next year.

The Fed’s aggressive tack will require some soul-searching in the corridors of the Bank of Canada. The conditions surrounding its rate-hiking cycle have changed.

Obviously, a stalling or even recessionary U.S. economy would weigh heavily on Canada’s own economic outlook, which still looked relatively healthy when the central bank updated its projections in July. If the Fed is determined to engineer a deeper slowdown, we can expect the Bank of Canada will have little choice but to become more pessimistic in its next forecast update in October.

FIRE-FIGHTING BANK OF ENGLAND FORCED TO BUY INFLATION-LINKED BONDS

Reuters - Andy Bruce (2022-10-11)

• Summary
• Companies

• Bank of England says will buy index-linked gilts
• Purchases of 5 bln stg per day will run to end of week
• Bank warns of "material risk" to financial stability
• Move represents new headache for UK PM Truss

TORIES SAY BANK OF CANADA DESERVES ‘RUTHLESS SCRUTINY’

Bloomberg - Stephen Wicary (2022-10-05)

Canada’s main opposition Conservatives are ratcheting up pressure on the nation’s central bank, although the party’s new leader has put aside his previous call for the governor’s dismissal.

CANADA NEED ONLY LOOK TO AUSTRALIA TO SEE HOW BADLY LIBERALS HAVE MESSED UP

FP - Diane Francis (2022-10-04)

In recent weeks, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dismissed the suggestion that Canada could be a major supplier of liquefied natural gas to Germany, questioning the “business case.” Germany is wealthy, needs to replace Russian energy, and Canada has the third biggest reserves of natural gas on the planet.

PREMIER KISHIDA WANTS JAPAN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WEAK YEN

Yahoo Finance - Isabel Reynolds (2022-10-03)

Kishida is trying to ease the blow from a currency that has lost about 20% of its value this year against the dollar. The prime minister has ordered his cabinet to compile an economic package by the end of the month with an unspecified value, as higher commodity prices and a rapid weakening of the yen add to headwinds for small companies and consumers.

BANK OF CANADA TO PUBLISH SUMMARIES OF MEETINGS IN BID TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-09-29)

The Bank of Canada will start publishing summaries of its monetary policy meetings in an effort to improve transparency and shore up its credibility as it struggles to bring down high inflation.

U.K. CENTRAL BANK INTERVENES IN MARKET TO HALT ECONOMIC CRISIS

Investment Executive (2022-09-29)

The Bank of England said it would buy long-term government bonds over the next two weeks to combat a recent slide in British financial assets. The bank’s actions are focused on long-term government debt, where yields have soared in recent days, pushing up government borrowing costs

UH, MR. POILIEVRE? CANADA PENSION PLAN PREMIUMS ARE NOT A TAX

G&M - Rob Carrick (2022-09-27)

It’s a little insensitive, but necessary, to raise the issue of retirement saving at a time when many households are struggling to pay for groceries and gas.

UNIONS URGE THE BANK OF CANADA TO HALT INTEREST RATE HIKES AS FEARS OF RECESSION GROW

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-09-26)

Union leaders are calling on the Bank of Canada to halt further interest-rate hikes, arguing that the brunt of a potential recession will be borne by Canadian workers whose wages are already lagging behind inflation.

BANK OF ENGLAND HIKES RATES BY 50 BPS AS ECONOMY SLOWS

Yahoo Finance (2022-09-23)

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 2.25% from 1.75% on Thursday and said it would continue to "respond forcefully, as necessary" to inflation, despite the economy entering recession.

BANK OF CANADA’S BEAUDRY PUSHES BACK AGAINST RECESSION FORECASTS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-09-21)

The Bank of Canada is pushing back against the idea it will need to cause a recession to get prices under control, while assuring financial markets it will take “whatever actions are necessary” to bring inflation back to target.

PIERRE POILIEVRE’S ECONOMIC PRIORITIES ARE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THEY SEEM

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-09-21)

When it comes to nailing down Pierre Poilievre’s economic policy, it can be hard separating the real from the surreal.

WHAT'S INSIDE CHINA'S TOOLBOX TO REIN IN EXCESS YUAN WEAKNESS?

Reuters (2022-09-21)

The yuan has lost about 4% to the dollar since mid-August to weaken past the psychologically important 7 per dollar level. The local currency also looks set for the biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified official and market exchange rates.
The rapid yuan declines prompted the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to lower the amount of foreign exchange financial institutions must hold as reserves to rein in weakness. read more

INDEPENDENT CENTRAL BANK MAY BE ONLY DEFENSE AGAINST OTTAWA’S ‘CRISIS’ MANAGEMENT

G&M - Steven Globerman (2022-09-19)

Back in 2020, Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre accused the Bank of Canada of being an “ATM” for the Liberal government and its deficit spending, helping fuel inflation. Mr. Poilievre, now leader of his party, has also said if he’s elected prime minister, he’ll replace Tiff Macklem as governor of the central bank with someone who would reinstate the institution’s low-inflation mandate. And he’s promised to increase parliamentary oversight of the bank.

AUSTRALIA’S CENTRAL BANK REVIEW PANEL CONSIDERS BOARD SHAKE-UP

Bloomberg - Swati Pandey (2022-09-15)

Australia’s central bank faces a potential overhaul of its interest rate-setting board that may result in more monetary policy experts and fewer business people, an independent review suggested.

THE BANK OF CANADA FRONT-LOADING WON’T GUARANTEE A SOFT-LANDING: RBC

Better Dwelling (2022-09-15)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has been on an aggressive rate hike path. Earlier this month, they hiked interest rates 75 basis points (bps) higher, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25% — the highest since the Great Recession. RBC noted this is above the 2-3% range the BoC considers to be neutral. Central banks around the world are on a similarly aggressive path to try and curb inflation. 

OSFI TO WITHDRAW PANDEMIC LEVERAGE POLICY

Investment Executive - James Langton (2022-09-14)

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) said Tuesday that it’s planning to eliminate a temporary revision to banks’ leverage ratio rules that was introduced in April 2020. The revision allowed banks to exclude certain “high quality liquid assets” from their leverage ratio calculations.

OTTAWA’S HIRING SPREE IS BEYOND MEASURE

G&M - Patrick Brethour (2022-09-13)

There are charts galore in the Clerk of the Privy Council’s annual report to the prime minister on the state of the federal civil service, and much discussion about mission and morale.

U.S. BANK REGULATOR NAMES NEW CLIMATE CHIEF

Reuters (2022-09-13)

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced Monday it had named Yue Chen as its chief climate risk officer.

TORIES ELECT POPULIST FIREBRAND POILIEVRE TO CHALLENGE TRUDEAU

Bloomberg - Brian Platt (2022-09-12)

Canada’s opposition Conservatives elected 43-year-old firebrand Pierre Poilievre as the main rival to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

EUROZONE INTEREST RATES IN RECORD RISE TO FIGHT INFLATION

BBC (2022-09-09)

The ECB raised its key deposit rate - how much interest it pays on deposits - to 0.75% from zero, and lifted its main refinancing rate - how much banks have to pay when they borrow money from the ECB - to 1.25% from 0.5%.

BANK OF CANADA RATE SEEN HITTING 4% OR HIGHER

FP - Larysa Harapyn (2022-09-09)

Trevin Stratton, Americas economic leader with Deloitte, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how the Bank of Canada rate seen hitting 4% or higher.

BIG BANK CEOS SEE SOFT LANDING WITH PANDEMIC RELIEF ACTING AS 'SHOCK ABSORBER'

FP - Kevin Orland (2022-09-09)

The Bank of Canada’s interest-rate increases are cooling parts of the economy.

BANK OF CANADA DELIVERS 0.75 PERCENTAGE POINT RATE HIKE, SIGNALS AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN AGAINST INFLATION ISN’T OVER

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-09-08)

The Bank of Canada has delivered another oversized interest rate hike and signaled that its aggressive campaign to increase borrowing costs isn’t over despite signs that inflation has peaked and the Canadian economy is starting to lose steam.

BANK CEOS SEE CANADA’S COVID SPENDING PROVIDING A SOFT LANDING

Bloomberg - Kevin Orland (2022-09-08)

Canada’s nearly C$300 billion ($228 billion) in Covid relief helped the nation navigate the pandemic’s acute phase, and now in its second act is poised to provide a soft landing for the economy.

BANK OF CANADA’S DELAYED ACTION MEANS A HARD LANDING IS MOST LIKELY: OXFORD ECON

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2022-09-08)

Here’s the important part for today — BoC research shows it takes 18 to 24 months for policy to arrive to market. If the BoC wanted stable inflation, it was supposed to do it more than two years ago to get the ball rolling. Instead of coming down in a graceful landing, we’re slamming the shifters down, then up, then…  you get it. Trying to force something is almost always worse than encouraging it, but at this point the BoC is stuck. This is a key point to understand the information below.

BANK OF CANADA’S DEPUTY GOVERNOR SEARCH MARKS A HISTORIC TWIST TO CENTRAL BANK’S DECISION-MAKING

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-09-07)

The Bank of Canada is looking for part-time help. And it’s a pretty big deal.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ANOTHER OVERSIZED RATE HIKE AS BORROWING COSTS BEGIN TO BITE

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-09-06)

The Bank of Canada is expected to announce another oversized interest rate increase this week, pushing borrowing costs into “restrictive territory,” despite signs that inflation has peaked and the Canadian economy is slowing down.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO PUSH INTEREST RATES INTO RESTRICTIVE TERRITORY

Yahoo Finance - Julie Gordon and Fergal Smith (2022-09-06)

Some economists predict the Canadian central bank may signal a pause after its anticipated hike next week, especially after the release on Wednesday of GDP data that suggested the economy may be cooling faster than expected.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO RAISE INTEREST RATE FOR FIFTH TIME AT PIVOTAL MOMENT FOR ECONOMY

G&M - Najoud Al Malees (2022-09-04)

Inflation appears to have peaked but it’s still running hot and a supersized rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week is widely expected.

OPINION: OTTAWA SHOULD STOP STOKING FOOD INSECURITY

Yahoo Finance (2022-09-01)

The federal government’s taxes and regulations are driving up costs for both farmers and the families who buy the food they produce. Food prices were up 10 per cent in July, the highest increase in more than 40 years.

FIRE THE CENTRAL BANKERS FOR THEIR INFLATION FAILURE?

FP (2022-08-31)

A reader sent an email recently to share his opinion about what would have happened to Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem if he led a private lender, and not an arm’s-length government institution: fired!
The ruthlessness of the private sector can be overstated. Mark Little remained CEO of Suncor Energy Inc. despite four workplace fatalities and numerous injuries over a two-year period; it took a fifth death in July to finally prompt Little’s resignation.

LIBERALS BACKTRACK ON BANK TAX

G&M - Rita Trichur (2022-08-30)

Even though that hike is consistent with plans outlined in this year’s budget, the Liberals’ 2021 election platform had originally envisioned a bigger 3-percentage-point increase to the corporate income tax rate (to 18 per cent on all earnings above $1-billion) for big banks and insurers.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TACKLES INFLATION WITH ITS MOST DIVERSE LEADERSHIP EVER

G&M (2022-08-29)

When Diane Swonk first attended the Federal Reserve’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in the late 1990s, there was a happy hour for women who attended the event. It barely filled a single table.

FED CHAIR POWELL: RATES WILL RISE UNTIL 'JOB IS DONE' BRINGING DOWN INFLATION

Yahoo Finance - Brian Cheung (2022-08-29)

“We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done,” Powell said in remarks delivered at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

CENTRAL BANKERS SING IN HARMONY, BUT STOCKS DON'T LIKE WHAT THEY HEAR

Yahoo Finance (2022-08-29)

The reaction was rather different from that to a recent set of public remarks from Powell earlier in the summer, which markets decided, somewhat imaginatively, to interpret as a possibility the Fed would pivot to worrying about recession risks, sending stocks highe

BANK OF CANADA MAKES MAJOR CHANGE WITH PLAN TO ADD OUTSIDER TO RATE-SETTING COUNCIL

FP - Theophilos Argitis (2022-08-29)

The Ottawa-based central bank said Monday it will replace deputy governor Tim Lane, who retires next month, with an external candidate who will work part-time on a two-year contract.
“In a context of increasingly complex and interconnected Canadian and global economies and financial systems, it’s vital that we as an organization constantly adapt and evolve,” Macklem said in a news release. “This change provides an opportunity both to bring fresh and diverse perspectives into the Bank’s consensus-based policy decision-making framework and to ensure the Bank’s executive team has a balanced, streamlined and effective distribution of management responsibility.”

POWELL HEAPS PRESSURE ON RISK SENTIMENT AS MORE CATALYSTS LOOM

Bloomberg - Abhishek Vishnoi, Michael Wilson (2022-08-29)

The dog days of summer are firmly over as global investors absorb Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s stern message that interest rates are going higher for longer in a painful fight against inflation.

FED COULD KEEP LIFTING RATES SHARPLY ‘FOR SOME TIME’

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2022-08-29)

Some on Wall Street expect the economy to fall into recession later this year or early next year, after which they expect the Fed to reverse itself and reduce rates.

FED CHAIR POWELL HOPING TO DO A MARADONA

Yahoo Finance (2022-08-26)

Mervyn King, the former bank of England governor - and maybe more familiar to Powell than Maradona - famously linked that goal and monetary policy in a speech to illustrate how people react to what they think you are going to do rather than what you actually do.

CANADIAN DOLLAR SNAPS LOSING STREAK AS OIL PRICES JUMP

G&M (2022-08-24)

The Canadian dollar CADUSD strengthened against the greenback on Tuesday, recovering from its lowest level in nearly six weeks, as oil prices rose and investors weighed U.S. economic data that could reduce expected tightening by the Federal Reserve.

FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKE OF 50 OR 75 BASIS POINTS ‘REASONABLE’ NEXT MONTH, DALY SAYS

G&M (2022-08-22)

San Francisco Federal Reserve president Mary Daly on Thursday said that raising interest rates by either 50 or 75 basis points in September would be a “reasonable” way to get short-term borrowing costs where they need to be to bring inflation down.

INTERIM ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE REGULATORY CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY TREATMENT OF CRYPTOASSET EXPOSURES

OSFI - OSFI (2022-08-19)

This advisory clarifies the interim regulatory capital and liquidity treatment of Deposit Taking Institutions’ (DTIs) and Insurers’ exposures to cryptoassets

IS ANYONE GOING TO BELIEVE THE BANK OF CANADA ANYMORE?

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-08-18)

Tiff Macklem spent much of the second half of 2021 trying to convince Canadians that rising inflation numbers were not all they were cracked up to be. He now finds himself making a similar argument in the opposite direction – as the dampener of enthusiasm for inflation’s downward turn.

NORWAY'S CENTRAL BANK ENACTS BIG RATE HIKE TO TAME INFLATION

Yahoo Finance (2022-08-18)

The rate's increase to 1.75% was larger than expected as the bank takes aim at inflation that reached 6.8% in July. It noted that unemployment is very low, falling more than expected last month to 3.2%, and “activity in the Norwegian economy is high."

'OUR JOB IS NOT DONE YET': TIFF MACKLEM SAYS BANK OF CANADA HAS MORE TO DO TO TAME INFLATION

Yahoo Finance - Stephanie Hughes (2022-08-16)

“Tuesday’s inflation number offers a bit of relief, but unfortunately, it will take some time before inflation is back to normal,” Macklem wrote in an opinion piece for the National Post on Aug. 16. “We know our job is not done yet — it won’t be done until inflation gets back to the two-per-cent target.”

COOLER INFLATION WON'T SWAY BANK OF CANADA FROM ANOTHER JUMBO HIKE IN SEPTEMBER, ECONOMISTS SAY

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-08-16)

“The dip in the headline rate was entirely accounted for by lower gasoline prices, which dropped to around $1.85/litre by the end of July after breaking the $2 per litre mark in June … Near-term headline inflation readings should continue to track gasoline prices lower. Indeed pump prices fell by another 6 per cent just over the first two weeks of August. Meantime, more cooling in the housing market, easing global supply chain constraints and lower commodity prices will all work to ease price pressure for a wider array of products.”

JAPAN'S YEN BEARS BRUNT OF MARKET RETHINK ON FED

Yahoo Finance - Rae Wee and Vidya Ranganathan (2022-08-12)

The Japanese yen fell the most against a resurgent U.S. dollar on Friday, as a two-day rally in equities conceded to market expectations that the Fed will have to do a lot more to contain inflation.

BANK OF ENGLAND SAYS WEAKENING REGULATORS WOULD UNDERMINE MARKET REFORMS

Yahoo Finance (2022-08-11)

Weakening the independence of regulators would undermine reforms to bolster Britain's finance industry, the head of the Bank of England said on Thursday, in a rebuff to proposals from the leading candidate to be the country's next prime minister.

MEXICO, PERU, ARGENTINA SET FOR NEW RATE HIKES: DECISION GUIDE

Yahoo Finance - Max de Haldevang (2022-08-11)

Mexico and Peru’s central banks are expected Thursday to hike their key interest rates to the highest point in more than a decade, as they continue their record tightening cycles to try to wrestle persistent inflation back under control.

ODDS OF BANK OF CANADA HIKING 75 BASIS POINTS IN SEPTEMBER JUST WENT DOWN

FP - Eerik Hertzberg (2022-08-11)

Overnight swap markets suggest about a 45 per cent chance that officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem will increase borrowing costs by three quarters of a percentage point at their Sept. 7 decision. A move of that magnitude would bring the policy rate to 3.25 per cent, the highest since April 2008.

WHY CRITICISM OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS LARGELY MISPLACED

FT - Bruna Skarica (2022-08-10)

With inflation higher than it has been in decades, there is no shortage of critics of the Bank of England. Still, the bulk of the blame seems largely unfounded.

U.S. CUTS SOFTWOOD TARIFFS BY HALF FOR CANADIAN LUMBER AS TRADE DISPUTE LINGERS

G&M - Brent Jang (2022-08-05)

The U.S. Department of Commerce is lowering tariffs against most Canadian softwood producers by half, but the long-running trade dispute lingers as Canada plans to appeal the decision to maintain punitive duty rates.

JAPAN'S GPIF POSTS $28 BILLION FIRST-QUARTER INVESTMENT LOSS ON MARKET TURBULENCE

Reuters - Reuters (2022-08-05)

Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reported on Friday an investment loss of 3.75 trillion yen ($28.13 billion) for April-June, the second consecutive quarter of negative returns, as economic slowdown fears hit global stock markets.

THE BANK OF EEYORE GRUMBLES THE TRUTH. WHO’S NEXT?

Bloomberg - John Aurthers (2022-08-05)

It’s hard not to think of Eeyore when reading the commentary that the Bank published Thursday, in conjunction with the announcement that it would be raising rates by 50 basis points, the biggest increase since 1995 (and the biggest ever since the BoE gained its independence under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in 1997). This is what it had to say about future prospects:

BANK OF ENGLAND ON BRINK OF BIGGEST RATE HIKE SINCE 1995

Reuters - William Schomberg (2022-08-04)

Most investors and economists predict the BoE will increase its benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 1.75%, its highest level since late 2008 at the start of the global financial crisis, when it announces its decision at 1100 GMT.

ARGENTINA NAMES ECONOMY 'SUPER MINISTER' AS CRISIS DEEPENS

Yahoo Finance (2022-07-28)

The appointment comes only a few weeks since the left-leaning Silvina Batakis was tapped as economy minister after the more moderate Martín Guzmán abruptly quit, saying he wasn't getting political support in dealing with Argentina's economic woes.

CANADIANS EXPECT SECRECY FROM FEDERAL INSTITUTIONS, BUT THE CRTC TOOK US BY SURPRISE WITH ITS ROGERS REPORT

G&M - Rita Trichur (2022-07-27)

Yes, Rogers’ responses to the CRTC’s queries were partly redacted, but the regulator kept its word and divulged enough details to give Canadians a basic understanding of how a coding error caused the company’s network to malfunction earlier this month.

IMF SUPPORTS ARGENTINA’S NEW ECONOMY MINISTER AS CRISIS DEEPENS

Yahoo Finance - Patrick Gillespie (2022-07-25)

Argentine Economy Minister Silvina Batakis “agreed on the importance of decisive program implementation,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tweeted Monday after meeting the new minister, who retweeted the comment.

CENTRAL BANKS TO BLAME FOR INFLATION, FORMER RBNZ CHIEF SAYS

Yahoo Finance - Matthew Brockett (2022-07-25)

That’s the view of former New Zealand central bank governor Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson, a senior research fellow with the New Zealand Initiative think tank, who have co-authored paper released Tuesday in Wellington titled: “How Central Bank Mistakes After 2019 Led to Inflation.”

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK HIKES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2011 SOCIAL SHARING

CBC (2022-07-21)

"The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 0.50 per cent, 0.75 per cent and 0.00 per cent respectively, with effect from 27 July 2022," the bank said, referring to various rates the central bank charges banks for loans, and fees for keeping deposits at the central bank for short time period.

'OUR CREDIBILITY IS BEING TESTED:' TIFF MACKLEM SAYS PATH TO SOFT LANDING IS NARROWING

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-07-21)

“Our credibility is being tested, and that was an important reason why we took an unusually large step last week to send a clear message to Canadians they can be assured that we’re going to control inflation,” Macklem told CTV News’s Evan Solomon on Wednesday following the June inflation figures.

MARIO DRAGHI RESIGNS, PLUNGING ITALY INTO POLITICAL TURMOIL

Reuters (2022-07-21)

It will be the first autumn national election for more than a century in Italy, where the second half of the year is normally taken up with getting the budget law through parliament.

R.I.P. FORWARD GUIDANCE: INFLATION FORCES CENTRAL BANKS TO DITCH MESSAGING TOOL

Reuters (2022-07-21)

If the U.S. Federal Reserve killed off forward guidance in June, the European Central Bank may have just hammered the final nail in the coffin of a tool officials had long used to provide monetary policy signals to financial markets.

HISTORY TAUGHT THE BANK OF CANADA WHAT HAPPENS WHEN IT DOESN’T CONTROL HIGH INFLATION

Investment Executive - Nojoud Al Mallees (2022-07-21)

“A big difference now is sort of a strongly held notion that it’s mostly the job of the Bank of Canada to look after inflation control,” said Williamson. “In the 70s, that wasn’t true.”

UKRAINE SEEKS FOREIGN-DEBT PAYMENT HALT AS WAR HITS ECONOMY

Yahoo Finance - Volodymyr Verbyany and Daryna Krasnolutska (2022-07-20)

Ukrainian officials have for weeks explored debt restructuring as the country’s funding options dry up and the war destroys its industry. The junk-rated sovereign faces mammoth $1.4 billion foreign-debt redemption and interest payments in September, according to Finance Ministry data.

THE DOLLAR SITS ATOP A GLOBAL MONETARY ORDER SHAKEN BY SANCTIONS

FT - Isabelle Mateos y Lago (2022-07-20)

Days after Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the G7 and a host of allies in Europe and Asia declared a freeze on the assets of the Central Bank of Russia.

BOJ TO RETAIN EASY POLICY, STAYING OUTSIDE GLOBAL TIGHTENING TIDE

Reuters - Leika Kihara (2022-07-20)

The decision will come hours before that of the European Central Bank, which will consider a bigger-than-expected 50 basis point rate increase to tame soaring inflation. While rising fuel and commodity costs have pushed Japan's inflation above its 2% target, the BOJ is in no rush to withdraw stimulus as slowing global growth cloud the outlook for an economy yet to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic's scars.

EXAMINING FEDERAL DEBT IN CANADA BY PRIME MINISTERS SINCE CONFEDERATION, 2022

Fraser Institute - Jake Fuss (2022-07-14)

Canada’s 23 prime ministers have each left a legacy, and each of those legacies has an effect on all Canadians. One element critical to an analysis of each prime minister is whether he or she left the federal government more or less indebted than when first taking office.

BANK OF CANADA READIES RARE 75-BASIS-POINT HIKE

Bloomberg - Erik Hertzberg (2022-07-13)

The Bank of Canada is set to deliver a super-sized interest rate hike this week, as it accelerates efforts to withdraw stimulus from an overheated economy and rein in soaring inflation.

BANK OF CANADA RAISES KEY INTEREST RATE BY 1 PERCENTAGE POINT, THE BIGGEST MOVE SINCE 1998

G&M - BARRIE MCKENNA AND MARK RENDELL (2022-07-13)

The Bank of Canada increased its benchmark interest rate by one percentage point on Wednesday, the most aggressive rate hike since 1998 and a larger move than investors and private-sector economists were expecting.

MONETARY POLICY REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE OPENING STATEMENT

BOC - Tiff Macklem (2022-07-13)

First, inflation is too high, and more people are getting more worried that high inflation is here to stay. We cannot let that happen. Restoring price stability—low, stable and predictable inflation—is paramount.

THE CASE FOR STRONG AND SILENT CENTRAL BANKS

Economist (2022-07-04)

Late on june 13th, a curious article appeared in the Wall Street Journal. It said that the Federal Reserve was “likely to consider” raising interest rates by 0.75 percentage points at its meeting on June 15th.
The article was unusually silent about its sources. And it proved uncannily prescient. Two days later the Fed did indeed raise interest rates by that amount, its biggest increase in 28 years. Many investors believe the central bank had used the press to warn financial markets about what it would do in advance (albeit not very far in advance). That would make the Journal story an unconventional example of “forward guidance”.

SENIOR CIVILIAN MOUNTIE REBUKES RCMP COMMISSIONER FOR ‘APPALLING’ BEHAVIOUR DURING NOVA SCOTIA SHOOTING INVESTIGATION

G&M (2022-06-29)

A senior civilian Mountie sent a strongly worded letter to RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki last year, accusing her of bowing to political pressure and displaying “unprofessional and extremely belittling” behaviour to officers investigating the worst mass shooting in Canadian history.

OSFI TAKES SMALL STEP TO LIMIT HOME-EQUITY BORROWING

G&M - Rachelle Younglai (2022-06-28)

Canada’s bank regulator plans to better protect the country’s financial system by limiting how much homeowners can borrow against the value of their homes.

FORD GOVERNMENT’S APPOINTMENT OF HEATHER ZORDEL AS OSC CHAIR PROMPTS RESIGNATIONS

G&M (2022-06-27)

The Ford government’s appointment of a Bay Street lawyer and Tory fundraiser to chair Ontario’s securities regulator has prompted two high-profile resignations, as well as concerns about her conduct and her dissenting views in her decisions regarding the laws that govern the capital markets.

RUSSIA DEFAULTS ON FOREIGN DEBT FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 1918

Bloomberg - Giulia Morpurgo and Libby Cherry (2022-06-27)

For months, the country found paths around the penalties imposed after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But at the end of the day on Sunday, the grace period on about $100 million of snared interest payments due May 27 expired, a deadline considered an event of default if missed.

BIS PUTS CBDCS AT CENTRE OF FUTURE MONETARY SYSTEM

Finextra (2022-06-24)

In the cross-border context, the BIS Innovation Hub (BISIH) has been leading practical experiments to show how central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could help deliver faster, cheaper and more transparent international payments.

BANK OF CANADA NEEDS MORE RESTRICTIVE INTEREST RATES TO CONTROL RUNAWAY INFLATION

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-06-23)

With every new inflation report, the job facing the Bank of Canada gets that much harder.

BANK OF CANADA DEPUTY GOVERNOR TIMOTHY LANE TO RETIRE IN SEPTEMBER

FP - CP (2022-06-23)

Lane joined the central bank in August 2008 as an adviser to the governor after 20 years at the International Monetary Fund.

THE AGE OF CREDIBILITY FOR CENTRAL BANKS IS OVER

Bloomberg - John Authers (2022-06-23)

Monetary regimes don’t fall often. Half a century ago, in 1971, Richard Nixon ended the Age of Gold by formally eliminating the dollar’s peg to the precious metal. Since then, the dollar and other currencies have rested on fiat—they’re worth something because governments say they are. You could call this the Age of Credibility. In place of gold, currency’s anchor is the trust in the central banks that issue them. Now credibility appears to be at an end. With central banks desperately ripping up their playbooks to try to rein in inflation that’s veered far beyond target, they’re admitting they’ve been wrong, and giving up on trying to steer the markets on their plans for the future.

CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCIES POISED TO BE THE FOUNDATION OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM, BIS SAYS

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-06-22)

“The technology and the technical issues are not that difficult, but once you have more than one jurisdiction involved, there are the policies and the regulations that of course, need to be reconciled,” said the BIS’s Hyun Song Shin. “What are some of the legal differences across jurisdictions that might mean that smooth flows might be impeded? So, there are more of these policy challenges that actually rear their heads in the wholesale application.”

POWELL FACES RISING CRITICISM FOR INFLATION MISSTEPS

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2022-06-22)

Inflation has proved higher and far more persistent than he or the Fed’s staff economists had foreseen. And at a policy meeting last week, Powell announced an unusual last-minute switch to a bigger interest rate hike than he had previously signaled — and then followed with a news conference that many economists described as muddled and inconsistent.

TRUDEAU IS SHIRKING CANADA’S INFLATION FIGHT, SCOTIABANK SAYS

Bloomberg - Stephen Wicary (2022-06-20)

One of Canada’s largest commercial banks fired a broadside at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, warning that high levels of federal spending are hurting the fight against inflation.

GET READY FOR INTEREST RATES TO CLIMB ‘A LOT HIGHER,’ SAYS FIRST TRUST ECONOMIST

Investment Executive - Greg Meckbach (2022-06-20)

“We think it was obvious inflation would be an issue over the last couple of years, and we believe it will continue to be an issue until we get the money supply under control,” Elass told advisors during the First Trust ETF Institute, held at the Royal York Hotel.

RE-OPENING KEYSTONE PIPELINE TALKS WON’T ADDRESS CURRENT HIGH OIL PRICES, YELLEN SAYS FOLLOWING MEETING WITH FREELAND

G&M - Bill Curry (2022-06-20)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have pledged to help central banks tackle inflation by cutting back on deficit spending, but Ms. Yellen was cool to reopening Keystone pipeline talks as a way to reduce oil prices.

THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IS RUNNING OUT OF AMMUNITION TO FIGHT A NEW DEBT CRISIS

G&M - Eric Reguly (2022-06-20)

Almost exactly a decade ago, Mario Draghi, then the president of the European Central Bank, promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro from destruction. At the time, Greece was on the verge of stumbling – or being frogmarched – out of the euro zone; Italy, the region’s third-largest economy, was so mired in debt that it, too, seemed a candidate for departure.

CANADA’S FEDERAL ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING RESOURCES ARE UNRELIABLE: BC PUBLIC INQUIRY

Better Dwelling (2022-06-17)

All flash and no (illicit) cash. That was the key takeaway from the Cullen Commission‘s final report looking at BC’s money laundering problem. Despite Canada talking a big game on anti-money laundering, its policies are ineffective. The Commission condemned federal anti-money laundering resources, and found Canada ignored the province’s calls for help. Austin Cullen, who led the Commission, concluded Federal resources aren’t reliable. The Province should therefore establish its own dedicated anti-money laundering enforcement team.

WHAT THE CRYPTO CRASH SAYS ABOUT PIERRE POILIEVRE’S JUDGMENT

G&M - Gary Mason (2022-06-16)

However, he can and should be questioned today about his enthusiasm for, if not outright promotion of, cryptocurrency.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND DETAILS $8.9B IN MEASURES TO TACKLE AFFORDABILITY IN FIRST MAJOR SPEECH SINCE BUDGET

CBC - Peter Zimonjic (2022-06-16)

Freeland said her plan to address inflation and the affordability crisis has five parts: respecting the role of the Bank of Canada, investing in workers, managing the debt, creating good jobs and funding the suite of programs that make up the Affordability Plan.

FP CANADA WANTS 4 MORE PROVINCES TO EMBRACE TITLE REG BY 2025

Investment Executive (2022-06-15)

Under the category of government relations, FP Canada stated it would like governments to “recognize financial planning as a profession and support its broad accessibility, through appropriate policy and regulatory frameworks” over the next three years.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE HIKES TARGET INTEREST RATE BY 0.75 PERCENTAGE POINT, FLAGS SLOWING ECONOMY

G&M - ANN SAPHIR AND HOWARD SCHNEIDER (2022-06-15)

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to stem a surge in inflation that U.S. central bank officials acknowledged may be eroding public trust in their power, and being driven by events seen increasingly out of their hands.

TRUDEAU’S FINANCE CHIEF TO LAY OUT PLAN TO COPE WITH INFLATION

Bloomberg - Brian Platt (2022-06-15)

Justin Trudeau’s finance minister will use a keynote speech to make the case that Canada’s government is ready to tackle affordability issues as consumer prices soar and borrowing costs rise sharply.

YAHOO FINANCE 'NEVER SAY NEVER': WALL STREET CONTEMPLATES A SHOCK DECISION FROM THE FED

Yahoo Finance - Brian Cheung (2022-06-14)

“Some think the Fed could deliver a surprise 75bp hike at the June meeting. Never say never in these circumstances but we think that remains very unlikely,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote Friday.

BOE EXPECTED TO GO FASTER AND FURTHER ON RATES, POLL FINDS

Bloomberg (2022-06-14)

The central bank, which had been expected to pause after hiking to 1.5%, is now predicted to lift the benchmark cost of borrowing to 2% by this time next year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week.

THE ECB IS NO LONGER AN INFLATION-TARGETING CENTRAL BANK

Bloomberg - Richard Cookson (2022-06-13)

Central banks have scarcely covered themselves in glory these past few years.  Most have one goal and one goal only: to keep inflation low. In most countries, they have spectacularly failed at this job. In much of the developed world, inflation has reached many multi-year highs. But bar Turkey’s, I can’t think of a central bank whose record has been as lamentable as the European Central Bank. At least its Turkish counterpart has the excuse of being under the thumb of Recep Erdogan, the country’s president, whose contributions to economics are on a par with Vladimir Putin’s to international diplomacy. 

BILL MORNEAU TALKS ABOUT THE LIBERALS’ ECONOMIC POLICY FAILINGS AS IF THEY WERE SOMEONE ELSE’S FAULT

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-06-07)

Bill Morneau isn’t wrong about the Liberal government’s failure to deliver on a long-term economic growth plan. It’s just odd that he talks about it as if it’s someone else’s fault. An awful lot of what he has criticized happened on his watch.

AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK HIKES RATE FOR 2ND TIME IN 5 WEEKS

Yahoo Finance (2022-06-07)

Australia’s central bank on Tuesday lifted its benchmark interest rate for a second time in five weeks, changing the cash rate to 0.85% from 0.35%.

CENTRAL BANKERS DON’T KNOW HOW TO TACKLE INFLATION

Bloomberg - Mark Gilbert (2022-06-06)

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all preside over inflation rates that have surged to quadruple their 2% targets. One of their brethren is highly skeptical of their chances of success in calming price increases. It may turn out that they’ve been lucky rather than good in achieving price stability in recent years — and their luck has run out.

FED DELIVERS FUZZIER RATE MESSAGE AS IT GAUGES IMPACT OF HIKES

Bloomberg - Craig Torres (2022-06-06)

At the start of the hiking cycle, Chair Jerome Powell said the goal was “getting rates back up to more neutral levels as quickly as we practicably can.” In May, however, he walked back from the concept of neutral -- a level that neither slows nor speeds up growth -- cautioning that the discussion had a “sort of false precision.”

MORNEAU CRITICIZES LIBERALS’ ECONOMIC POLICIES IN FIRST PUBLIC SPEECH SINCE LEAVING POLITICAL LIFE

G&M - Andrew Willis (2022-06-02)

Former finance minister Bill Morneau delivered a pointed critique of the federal Liberals’ economic policies, along with a series of recommendations for kickstarting growth, in his first public speech since leaving political life two years ago.

BANK OF CANADA RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE TO 1.5%, SIGNALS MORE HIKES ON THE WAY

CBC - Pete Evans (2022-06-02)

"With ... inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the [bank] continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further," the central bank said in a statement.

CANADA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWS TO 3.1%: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-06-01)

For what it’s worth, Bay Street’s average forecast ahead of the release was for growth of about five per cent, so there will be some disappointment, or maybe relief, considering growth at that pace would continue to fuel worries that the central bank had lost its grip on inflation. The Bank of Canada has been struggling to get a read on prices, but it appears to have a better idea of what’s going on with GDP.

BANK OF CANADA FACES CREDIBILITY TEST IN POLITICAL FIRESTORM OVER INFLATION

Bloomberg - Theophilos Argitis (2022-05-31)

If worrying about an overheating economy wasn’t enough trouble, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem enters a crucial six-week period in his battle against inflation with an unexpected new problem: questions about his own credibility.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ANOTHER SUPERSIZED INTEREST RATE HIKE TO HELP TEMPER INFLATION

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-05-30)

The Bank of Canada is expected to announce another oversized interest rate increase this week, part of its effort to push Canadian borrowing costs rapidly higher in the hope of slowing the pace of consumer price growth.

CANADA PROPOSES GUIDELINES TO MANAGE FINANCIAL RISKS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Yahoo Finance (2022-05-27)

The guidelines, issued by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), call for annual climate-related disclosures on governance, strategy, risk management, metrics and targets, and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a transition plan, for periods starting October 2023.

U.S. FED EMBRACES 50-BASIS-POINT RATE HIKES IN JUNE, JULY TO CURB ‘VERY HIGH’ INFLATION

G&M - Howard Schneider (2022-05-26)

All participants at the Federal Reserve’s May 3-4 policy meeting backed a half-percentage-point rate increase to combat inflation they agreed had become a key threat to the economy’s performance and was at risk of racing higher without action by the U.S. central bank, minutes of the session showed on Wednesday.

FED OFFICIALS RAISED POSSIBILITY OF ‘RESTRICTIVE’ POLICY TO FIGHT INFLATION

FT - James Politi (2022-05-26)

Federal Reserve officials discussed the possibility of moving the US central bank to a “restrictive” policy stance that would better fight inflation through more aggressive interest rate increases, but worried that this could undermine the strong recovery in the jobs market.

DELAYS TO OTTAWA’S PLEDGE TO LOWER CREDIT CARD TRANSACTION FEES HAS SMALL BUSINESSES WORRIED

G&M - Chris Hannay (2022-05-25)

Independent retailers have an array of overhead costs, but there is one that Juliann Barry calls the silent killer: credit-card transaction fees.

RUBLE RALLY POWERS ON EVEN AFTER CAPITAL CONTROLS DIALED BACK

Yahoo Finance - Bloomberg (2022-05-24)

The ruble was stronger for a fifth day against the dollar, trading up 2% even after Russia on Monday loosened capital controls by reducing the amount of foreign currency exporters are required to convert.

FINANCE MINISTER CHRYSTIA FREELAND DEFENDS BANK OF CANADA AMID POILIEVRE ATTACKS

FP - Julie Gordon (2022-05-24)

“It is clear to us all that we are living through a period of global volatility. We have COVID. We have the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We have China’s zero-COVID policy,” Freeland told reporters by teleconference from Munich, Germany after a G7 meeting.

UK REGULATOR COUNTERS CLIMATE DENIER CLAIM

Reuters - Carolyn Cohn (2022-05-24)

UK pension schemes should not ignore climate change, a senior executive at The Pensions Regulator said on Monday, the first watchdog to weigh in after a top HSBC banker was suspended after playing down the financial risks of climate change.

ALBERTA PREMIER JASON KENNEY RESIGNING AS UCP LEADER DESPITE NARROW WIN IN LEADERSHIP REVIEW

CBC - Michelle Bellefontaine (2022-05-19)

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced his resignation as United Conservative Party leader Wednesday after receiving 51.4 per cent approval of his leadership from UCP members.

CHINA SAYS SENIOR CENTRAL BANK OFFICIAL UNDER INVESTIGATION

Bloomberg (2022-05-18)

Born in 1972, Sun joined the People’s Bank of China in 1996 and has spent most of his career at the monetary policy department. He’s been at the forefront of the PBOC’s transformation into a modern central bank over the years and took part in many key milestones, including creating the interbank bond market, launching open market operations, establishing the yuan exchange rate forming mechanism, and most recently, revamping the interest rates.

US SET TO BLOCK RUSSIAN DEBT PAYMENTS, RAISING DEFAULT ODDS

Bloomberg - Seleha Mohsin (2022-05-18)

The end of the carve-out could be the final straw in Russia’s debt saga after almost three months of war in Ukraine. It’s managed to make all its payments to creditors so far, weaving through the tangle of sanctions that closed off some avenues.

YAHOO FINANCE POWELL: 'SOME PAIN' MAY BE REQUIRED TO SLOW INFLATION

Yahoo Finance - Brian Cheung (2022-05-18)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise short-term interest rates — which will likely slow economic activity — until there is “clear and convincing evidence” that inflation is coming down.

ECB TELLS BANKS TO BUCKLE UP AS UKRAINE WAR HITS ECONOMY

Reuters (2022-05-18)

"We have asked banks to reassess their projections and capital trajectories in the light of the new macroeconomic picture, also considering adverse scenarios," Enria told Italian daily Repubblica.

THAT TIME THE PRIME MINISTER SQUARED OFF AGAINST THE CENTRAL BANKER

FP - Joe O'Connor (2022-05-16)

“I don’t want to seem like a flashy Joe,” he would say.

YAHOO FINANCE CANADA VIDEOS WHY BANK OF CANADA CRITICISM IS JUSTIFIED

Yahoo Finance - Yahoo (2022-05-16)

On this episode of Editor's Edition, Yahoo Finance Canada's Alicja Siekierska and the Public Policy Forum's Sean Speer discuss the criticism being aimed at the Bank of Canada. Speer argues that the debate around the Bank’s decisions – as well as of other institutions – is justified in the post-pandemic recovery.

INTEREST RATE TRAJECTORY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOUSING MARKET, BANK OF CANADA DEPUTY GOVERNOR SAYS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-05-13)

The Bank of Canada needs to keep raising interest rates to tackle runaway inflation, deputy governor Toni Gravelle said on Thursday – although how high rates go will depend on how the housing market responds to rising borrowing costs.

PIERRE POILIEVRE FANS FRUSTRATION ABOUT CANADA’S INFLATION WOES

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-05-13)

In his loud and frequent criticism of the Bank of Canada, Pierre Poilievre has been getting a lot of mileage out of how the central bank started the COVID-19 crisis thinking deflation, not inflation, would be the country’s big worry. The Conservative Party leadership candidate recently called the bank’s brain trust “financially illiterate” for getting the inflation call so badly wrong.

BANK OF CANADA’S 1% POLICY RATE ‘TOO STIMULATIVE,’ GRAVELLE SAYS

Yahoo Finance - Erik Hertzberg (2022-05-13)

Speaking in Montreal, the deputy governor outlined how higher commodity prices, global supply chain issues, and the reopening of economies are pushing up inflation. Gravelle also said that the bank’s near-term forecasts for price gains are likely to be revised up, adding that “inflation pressures have been higher and more tenacious than we expected.”

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT PIERRE POILIEVRE'S THREAT TO FIRE TIFF MACKLEM

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-05-13)

Here’s what Poilievre, member of Parliament for Carleton, a riding on the outskirts of Ottawa, said he’d do with Macklem during a debate with the other leadership candidates in Edmonton on May 11: “I would replace him with a new governor who would reinstate our low-inflation mandate, protect the purchasing power of our dollar, and honour the working people who earned those dollars.”

U.S. SENATE CONFIRMS POWELL FOR SECOND TERM AS FED CHIEF IN BIPARTISAN VOTE

Reuters - David Morgan (2022-05-13)

Most of the nays were Republicans, though a few Democrats, including Robert Menendez and Elizabeth Warren, joined them. Menendez said Powell had not done enough to promote diversity in the Fed's leadership, while Warren said he had fallen short on bank regulation.

'WE'RE NOT GETTING IT PERFECT': CAROLYN ROGERS SAYS THE BANK OF CANADA IS LEARNING FROM ITS MISTAKES

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-05-12)

The Bank of Canada’s leaders dislike how they’ve been dragged into a partisan political contest. But they didn’t need Pierre Poilievre’s emergence as Canada’s answer to former United States congressman Ron Paul to know that a segment of the population has lost faith in them.

ECB TO START RAISING RATES GRADUALLY THIS SUMMER - VILLEROY

Reuters - Reuters (2022-05-11)

He said he expected inflation to remain "high" for the rest of 2022 but added that inflation should get back down to around the 2% level by 2024.

FED WARNS OF WORSENING MARKET LIQUIDITY IN STABILITY REPORT

Bloomberg - Matthew Boesler (2022-05-10)

The Federal Reserve warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening and high inflation in a semi-annual report published Monday.

BANK OF CANADA'S CAROLYN ROGERS SAYS SUPPLY IS THE KEY TO SOLVING HOUSING PROBLEM

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-05-06)

“We have to fix the supply problem,” Rogers said this week in an interview, her first since replacing Carolyn Wilkins as governor Tiff Macklem’s No. 2 in December. “We keep trying these different things to dampen demand and Canadians still want houses. We have immigration coming in, (and) we have a strong economy.”

BOC REACHING OUT TO INDIGENOUS GROUPS ON ECONOMIC RECONCILIATION

Investment Executive - CP (2022-05-06)

Schembri says the central bank hopes it can take a meaningful step toward building trust and strengthening its relationship with Indigenous peoples.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE RAISES INTEREST RATE BY HALF POINT, LARGEST HIKE IN TWO DECADES

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-05-05)

Fed chair Jerome Powell said he expects the committee will consider increasing the policy rate by 50 basis points at each of its next two meetings, which would bring the Fed Funds rate back above prepandemic levels by the middle of the summer. At the same time, he seemed to rule out an increase of 75 basis points, saying that “is not something the committee is actively considering.”

BANK OF CANADA OPENED THE DOOR FOR TODAY’S INDEPENDENCE QUESTIONS AT A PODIUM TWO YEARS AGO

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-05-05)

What was striking about the speech this week from the Bank of Canada’s No. 2 official on the importance of central-bank independence wasn’t what she had to say. It was that the bank felt compelled to say it at all.

INFLATION IN TURKEY SOARS TO EYE-POPPING NEAR 70% IN APRIL

Yahoo Finance - Yahoo (2022-05-05)

Turkey’s central bank has cut rates by 5 percentage points since September, to 14%, despite high inflation rates — before pausing them in January. The Turkish lira lost 44% of its value against the U.S. dollar last year.

BANK OF ENGLAND SET FOR 4TH STRAIGHT RATE HIKE TO FIGHT INFLATION

Reuters - William Schomberg (2022-05-05)

The Bank of England looks poised to raise interest rates on Thursday for the fourth time since December, the fastest increase in borrowing costs in a quarter of a century as it tries to quell the danger from the leap in inflation.

CENTRAL BANKERS ARE HANDCUFFED BY OLD NARRATIVES

Bloomberg - Clive Crook (2022-05-05)

In the space of a few short months, the prevailing narrative on U.S. inflation has veered from “It’s transitory” to “We have a problem.” This week, the Federal Reserve took another step toward acknowledging this, raising its policy rate by 50 basis points and leading investors to expect a faster pace of tightening from now on. That’s fine, you might say, the facts have changed – and to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, when the facts change, you change your story. What’s interesting is that the story has changed more abruptly than the facts.

BANK OF CANADA DEFENDS ITS CREDIBILITY AND INDEPENDENCE IN FACE OF SOARING INFLATION, CONSERVATIVE CRITICISM

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-05-04)

The Bank of Canada has ramped up efforts to defend its credibility amid soaring inflation and pointed criticism from Conservative politicians who say it has lost its independence from the government.

THE FED IS ABOUT TO DO SOMETHING IT HAS NOT DONE IN TWO DECADES

Yahoo Finance - Brian Cheung (2022-05-04)

RAPID RATE HIKES CRITICAL TO ‘BREAK’ RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, SAYS FORMER BOC GOVERNOR DAVID DODGE

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-05-03)

David Dodge has been in the corridors of Canadian economic policy making and the battle against inflation for a half-century.

DAVID ROSENBERG: THE FED IS TIGHTENING AND THAT USUALLY MEANS RECESSION, NO MATTER WHAT THEY SAY

FP - David Rosenberg (2022-05-02)

Recent research from a number of sources also cast doubt on Powell’s statement. As such, rather than buying into the Fed’s fantasy, inventors should exercise caution and shift away exposure from cyclical sectors into more defensive ones.

TIFF MACKLEM ACKNOWLEDGES MISJUDGING INFLATION, PLEDGES TO ACT 'FORCEFULLY' TO BRING IT DOWN

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-04-29)

“(We’re coming) out of the deepest recession we’ve ever had,” Macklem said during testimony at the Senate banking committee late on April 27. “We got a lot of things right. We got some things wrong, and we are adjusting.”

TIFF MACKLEM DOUBLES DOWN ON MESSAGE THAT CANADIANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-04-28)

The Bank of Canada is prepared to raise interest rates “forcefully if needed” to get inflation under control, Governor Tiff Macklem said Wednesday, doubling down on the message that Canadian households and businesses should brace for higher borrowing costs over the coming year.

NEW INVESTING ORDERS SHOULD MAKE IT SIMPLER TO DEPLOY FUNDS: INFRASTRUCTURE BANK CEO

Yahoo Finance - Yahoo (2022-04-27)

The Liberals infused the infrastructure bank with $35 billion in federal financing to pull in two or three times that in private dollars, arguing it would stretch Ottawa's capacity to fund the building of more roads, bridges, energy, water and wastewater systems.

MACKLEM HINTS AT A SECOND HALF-POINT RATE HIKE, WHILE DOUSING TALK HE COULD GO BIGGER

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-04-26)

“Anything bigger than a 50-point increase would be very unusual,” Macklem said during testimony at the House finance committee on April 25.

BANK OF CANADA REBUKES CLAIMS PIERRE POILIEVRE HAS MADE ON INFLATION, CRYPTOCURRENCY

National Post - Catherine Levesque (2022-04-26)

Poilievre, who lost his role as Finance critic ever since he decided to run for his party’s main job, was not there to butt heads against Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers during the Parliamentary Finance Committee on Monday.

THE BANK OF CANADA RELEASES ITS ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2021

BOC - BOC (2022-04-26)

The Bank of Canada’s Annual Report for 2021 was tabled in the House of Commons today. The Report is now available on the Bank’s website.

OPENING STATEMENT BEFORE THE HOUSE OF COMMONS STANDING COMMITTEE ON FINANCE

BOC - Tiff Macklem (2022-04-26)

The Bank’s primary focus is inflation. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Canada hit a three-decade high of 6.7% in March, well above what we projected in the January MPR. The war has driven up the prices of energy and other commodities, and it is further disrupting global supply chains. While most of the factors pushing up inflation come from beyond our borders, with the economy in excess demand, we are facing domestic price pressures too. About two-thirds of CPI components are growing above 3%, which means Canadians are feeling inflation across their household budgets, from gas to groceries to rent.

HIGHER RATES WILL COST CANADIANS BILLIONS IN GOVERNMENT DEBT INTEREST

FP - Tegan Hill and Jake Fuss (2022-04-25)

In the decade leading up to the pandemic, Canadian governments collectively accumulated approximately $525 billion in net debt — this despite a growing national economy in nine of the 10 years. COVID-19 then exacerbated the problem, as governments increased spending and amassed hundreds of billions in additional debt during 2020 and 2021. In its recent budget, the federal government alone projects its net debt will surpass $1.3 trillion this fiscal year (2022-23) and continue climbing until at least 2026-27.

MACRON DEFEATS LE PEN TO BE RE-ELECTED FRENCH PRESIDENT

FT - Victor Mallet, Leila Abboud and Sarah White (2022-04-25)

Emmanuel Macron has defeated his far-right rival Marine Le Pen to be re-elected president of France, vowing to tackle the country’s “doubts and divisions” during his second five-year term.

BANK OF CANADA’S TIFF MACKLEM WON’T RULE OUT EVEN LARGER INTEREST RATE HIKES

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-04-22)

The Bank of Canada might consider hiking its benchmark interest rate by more than 50 basis points in a single move as it pushes borrowing costs higher to try to quell runaway inflation, Governor Tiff Macklem suggested on Thursday.

BUILDING BACK BIGGER: HOW OTTAWA GREW UNDER COVER OF COVID

FP - William Robson and Alexandre Laurin (2022-04-22)

The 2022 federal budget highlights their success. Ottawa’s last pre-COVID projections, in its 2019 fall update, showed federal spending at $421 billion in fiscal year 2024-25. The 2022 budget’s projections have it at $479 billion a year (adding back $2 billion in pension obligations the government stopped including meanwhile). That’s $58 billion more, long after COVID-related measures are gone. The slogan we should have been hearing is “Build back bigger!”

BOE'S BAILEY SAYS THERE SHOULD BE "NO APPEASEMENT" OF RUSSIA

Reuters - Reuters (2022-04-22)

Western countries should not appease Russia following its invasion of Ukraine even if there are difficult economic consequences, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday.

CAN THE BANK OF CANADA POSSIBLY GET INFLATION BACK DOWN NEAR 2 PER CENT?

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-04-21)

With every monthly release of Canada’s consumer price index, the gap between inflation and the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target grows more cavernous – and the task to close it increasingly Herculean.

RUSSIA SAYS IT WILL NO LONGER DISCLOSE THE NAMES OF ORGANIZATIONS THAT USE ITS ALTERNATIVE TO THE SWIFT PAYMENT SYSTEM

Yahoo Finance - Huileng Tan (2022-04-20)

"Under the current conditions we have made the decision not to reveal the list of organisations connected to SPFS. Still, this list is available for users of the system," the Russian central bank told Reuters in an email. The institution used to publish a list of SPFS users on the website but recently stopped the practice, per Bloomberg.

CALLING TIME ON QE, CENTRAL BANK ASSET CULL ADDS NEW MARKET RISKS

Reuters - Howard Schneider and William Schomberg (2022-04-20)

Major central banks, already plotting interest rate hikes in a fight against inflation, are also preparing a common pullback from key financial markets in a first-ever round of global "quantitative tightening" expected to restrict credit and add stress to an already-slowing world economy.

RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANKER NABIULLINA GETS HIT WITH SANCTIONS

Bloomberg - Brian Platt (2022-04-20)

Canada sanctioned Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and 13 other “close associates of the Russian regime” in a fresh round of penalties related to the war in Ukraine.

RUSSIA'S DEBT DEFAULT WILL BE ONE OF THE HARDEST IN HISTORY TO RESOLVE AND COULD SEE THE US SEIZE THE CENTRAL BANK'S ASSETS, ECONOMIST SAYS

Yahoo Finance - Harry Robertson (2022-04-19)

EU WARNS PUTIN’S RUBLES-FOR-GAS DEMAND WOULD BREAK SANCTIONS

Yahoo Finance - Alberto Nardelli (2022-04-14)

European governments -- and companies -- are still grappling with what the decree means in operational terms. The person said the EU would work with national authorities to inform European companies that hold contracts of the assessment and provide guidance. The Dutch government has backed the EU analysis and said it won’t allow its companies to follow through with the Russian payment demand.

CIRCLING THE TOILET BOWL OF SOCIALISM

FP - Matthew Lau (2022-04-13)

Had I been in charge of titling last week’s federal budget, it would have been called something like “Circling the toilet bowl of socialism.” We’re not quite in the bowl yet, but with this budget, we’re circling it. The Liberals instead called their budget “A Plan to Grow Our Economy and Make Life More Affordable,” a far less accurate description, for their policies are exactly the opposite of what they should be if they really want to grow the economy. As a matter of basic economics, to encourage economic growth, taxes must be low, simple, predictable, and broadly applied, in order to minimize distortions and provide certainty. The Liberals have broken all the rules of sensible taxation by making taxes higher, more distortionary, more arbitrary, and less certain.

IS NEW ZEALAND RAISING RATES INTO A RECESSION?

Bloomberg - Daniel Moss (2022-04-13)

For New Zealand, having the most hawkish central bank in Asia doesn't go far enough. Officials are intensifying their battle against inflation, even as confidence ebbs and the vital housing industry teeters. Is the country racing toward a recession?

MONETARY POLICY REPORT – APRIL 2022

BOC - Tiff Macklem (2022-04-13)

11 AM today Maklem will disuss BOC monetary policy.

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE OVERSIZED RATE HIKE THIS WEEK

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-04-11)

The Bank of Canada is expected to announce its first oversized interest-rate hike in more than two decades this week after hawkish comments from the country’s top central bankers and growing signs that the economy is overheating.

RUSSIA CALLS FOR INTEGRATING BRICS PAYMENT SYSTEMS

Reuters - Reuters (2022-04-11)

 Russia, hit by Western sanctions, has called on the BRICS group of emerging economies to extend the use of national currencies and integrate payment systems, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

RUSSIA TO HALT BOND SALES FOR THIS YEAR AS INTEREST COSTS SURGE

Bloomberg - Kira Zavyalova (2022-04-11)

Russia will halt bond auctions for the remainder of 2022 due to prohibitive borrowing costs, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted as saying by Russian newspaper Izvestia.

FEDERAL BUDGET EARMARKS $56-BILLION IN NEW SPENDING, HIGHER TAXES AS CRITICS FEAR IT WILL FUEL INFLATION

G&M - Bill Curry (2022-04-08)

The federal government’s 2022 budget plan lays out more than $56-billion in new spending over six years, as part of a package Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says will boost innovation and green technology.

FEDERAL BUDGET 2022 TO INCLUDE $10-BILLION FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING

G&M - Bill Curry (2022-04-07)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table a budget on Thursday that promises $10-billion to make housing more affordable for Canadians, provides $8-billion in new defence spending, and aims to spur economic growth through green initiatives and a small-business tax cut.

CAN THE FED SHRINK ITS $9TN BALANCE SHEET WITHOUT CAUSING MARKET MAYHEM?

FT - Colby Smith (2022-04-07)

After months of debate, the Federal Reserve has a plan to shrink its $9tn balance sheet as it tries to tighten monetary policy and tackle the highest inflation in decades.

CANADA’S SUPERCLUSTERS AWAIT FATE IN 2022 FEDERAL BUDGET AS FUNDING DWINDLES

G&M - Sean Silcoff (2022-04-07)

It was the centrepiece of the federal Liberal government’s first innovation strategy: a $950-million “supercluster” program aimed at bringing together academia and business to collaborate in unprecedented ways, spinning out companies and creating jobs, economic growth and intellectual property.

SCOTIABANK CEO CALLS FOR FEDERAL COMMISSION TO STUDY LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH ISSUES

G&M - James Bradshaw (2022-04-06)

Bank of Nova Scotia 

MP REMPEL GARNER PUSHES FOR NATIONAL CRYPTO REGULATION FRAMEWORK IN BILL

FP - Stephanie Hughes (2022-04-06)

Bill C-249, which saw its first reading in early February, would call on the Minister of Finance to consult with crypto industry innovators designated by provinces and territories to develop the framework. The bill also states that policy must focus on lowering barriers to entry in the crypto sector and protect industry innovators from crushing administrative burdens.

BANK OF CANADA SURVEY SHOWS MOST BUSINESSES THINK IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST TWO YEARS TO GET INFLATION UNDER CONTROL

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-04-05)

The central bank polls a representative group of companies every quarter to give it a sense of the mood inside the country’s C-suites. It was no surprise the latest Business Outlook Survey turned up anxiety over prices, which have risen to the highest in more than three decades, according to Statistic Canada’s consumer price index.

THE BIG RIFT: CORPORATE CANADA WANTS OTTAWA TO FOCUS ON REAL GROWTH, NOT ‘SUGAR POPS’ ECONOMICS

G&M - James Bradshaw (2022-04-04)

One week before the release of the federal government’s pivotal 2022 budget, Royal Bank of Canada chief executive Dave McKay was uneasy as he surveyed the daunting challenges ahead for Canada’s economy.

BANK OF CANADA’S TIFF MACKLEM TAKES ON NEW ROLE OVERSEEING GLOBAL BANK RULES

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-04-04)

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is taking on a new role overseeing the global banking system as the chair of a group of central bankers that oversees the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

BRACE YOURSELF: INTEREST RATES COULD BE HEADED UP EVEN FASTER AND HIGHER THAN WE THOUGHT SOCIAL SHARING

CBC - Pete Evans (2022-04-01)

While economists expect the bank to gradually raise its rate another half-dozen times or so this year, there's a growing sense that the bank may need to start moving faster and more dramatically than anticipated to rein in inflation, which is already at its highest level in a generation.

FAITH IN BANK OF CANADA INFLATION-FIGHTING CHOPS CLIMBS IN POLL

Bloomberg - Erik Hertzberg (2022-03-31)

Although a majority of Canadians are still doubtful inflation will be reined in, even a small pick-up in confidence is a welcome development for policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem. Bank of Canada officials have been warning they plan to act decisively with aggressive rate hikes to quell inflation, which has hit a three-decade high of 5.7%.

WHY THE BANK OF CANADA IS NOW 'TALKING TOUGH' ON INFLATION

FP - Larysa Harapyn (2022-03-30)

Dennis Mitchell, CEO and CIO at Starlight Capital, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about why the Bank of Canada is now ‘talking tough’ on inflation.

TRUDEAU CLIMATE PLAN SEEKS 42% CUT IN OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS

Yahoo Finance - Brian Platt, Robert Tuttle (2022-03-30)

Trudeau’s blueprint promises industry a tax credit to help pay for carbon-capture projects, details of which may come as soon as next week’s federal budget. It doesn’t, however, include a specific emissions cap on the fossil-fuel sector, which accounts for about a tenth of Canada’s total economic output.

UKRAINE OFFERS NEUTRALITY IN EXCHANGE FOR NATO-STYLE SECURITY GUARANTEES AT RUSSIA TALKS

Reuters - Reuters (2022-03-30)

Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees at talks with Russia in Turkey, meaning it would not join military alliances or host military bases, Ukrainian negotiators said on Tuesday.

FALLOUT FROM 2021 CERB HACK CONTINUES TO AFFECT TAXPAYERS, CRA

G&M - Patrick Brethour (2022-03-29)

Chris Chezepock had the nasty shock last year of finding out he was one of the thousands of taxpayers whose online accounts with the Canada Revenue Agency had been accessed by hackers looking to fraudulently obtain pandemic benefits.

THE BANK OF CANADA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY TAKE THE STEEPER PATH TO HIGHER RATES NEXT MONTH

FP - Kevin Carmichael (2022-03-29)

Higher interest rates won’t guarantee rain on the Prairies this summer, and Macklem has no influence over international oil prices. Bay Street economist David Rosenberg’s argument that central banks are about to trigger a recession is a good one. Alas, if you’re Macklem, and your primary job is keeping year-over-year increases in the consumer price index at about two per cent, the most recent set of data leave you with only one choice: reel faster.

BOC IS SUDDENLY ABLE TO TACKLE INFLATION AFTER WE EXPLAIN TO PARLIAMENT WHAT THEY DID

Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi (2022-03-29)

Supply chain issues exist, but not to the extent they’re making them out to be — especially before Ukraine. As we explained last week, this isn’t a regular amount of demand failing to be met. This is excess demand for goods, far more than normal supply levels satisfy. The increased demand is the intended consequence of loose monetary policy. The BoC actively tried to create demand that outran supply, to create more inflation. 

BANK OF CANADA EXPECTED TO BEGIN DOUBLING RATE HIKES NEXT MONTH, REVERSE QE

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2022-03-29)

The BoC estimates 1.75% is the low range of the neutral policy rate, which will be hit within months. A neutral policy rate is the point where monetary policy provides no influence. Below the neutral is expansionary, meaning stimulus for economic growth. Above the neutral rate is when monetary policy slows growth. The BoC estimates the neutral range to be between 1.75% and 2.75%, with more forecasts now predicting the higher end of the range will be needed.

CLEVELAND FED FINDS SOME DATA UNDERSTATE INFLATION TREND

WSJ - Michael S. Derby (2022-03-28)

Underlying levels of inflation haven’t been as moderate as some recent Federal Reserve data have shown.

FEDERAL DEFICIT WAS $75.3 BILLION FOR FIRST NINE MONTHS

Investment Executive - CP (2022-03-28)

The federal government posted a budgetary deficit of $75.3 billion for the April-to-January period of its 2021-22 fiscal year.

CANADA 'FAIRLY CLOSE' TO A DEBT CRISIS, WARNS MAGNA FOUNDER FRANK STRONACH

FP - Staff (2022-03-25)

The Magna International Inc founder was speaking on BNN Bloomberg Wednesday after writing an op-ed for the National Post this week.

BESIDES CHINA, PUTIN HAS ANOTHER POTENTIAL DE-DOLLARIZATION PARTNER IN ASIA

Council on Foreign Relations - Zonhyuan Zoe Liu (2022-03-25)

An unintended consequence of Western punitive sanctions could be strengthening a Russia-China de-dollarization partnership. Joining such a partnership may also appeal to India. India has reportedly expressed interest in jointly exploring with Russia and China an alternative to SWIFT that would allow it to trade with countries under U.S. sanctions. 

RUSSIA BONDS RISE, DEFAULT RISK TUMBLES AS PAYMENT SENT TO CITI

Yahoo Finance - Giulia Morpurgo, Laura Benitez and Lyubov Pronina (2022-03-18)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has processed the funds and sent the money on to Citigroup Inc., the people said, spurring optimism that the bonds may still be settled in dollars. Bondholders, however, are still waiting for the $117 million payment. Four investors in Europe and three in Hong Kong had yet to receive funds as of 9 a.m. in London. S&P Global Ratings warned that the “technical difficulties” in getting the money to investors was increasing the risk of a default -- either this time around or in the future.

BOC TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DIGITAL CURRENCY RESEARCH, PARTNERING WITH MIT

Investment Executive - Daniel Calabretta (2022-03-18)

In 2020, the BoC published a background note about its official position on a CBDC pertaining to public policy, design, technology and risk management issues the central bank was considering as it builds out its capacity to issue a digital currency if the need arises.

TRUDEAU’S FINANCE CHIEF HAS MORE ROOM TO SPEND IN APRIL BUDGET

Bloomberg - Theophilos Argitis (2022-03-17)

Revenue could surpass projections by as much as C$30 billion ($23.6 billion) over the next two years, though the governing Liberals are likely to book a more conservative amount given extreme levels of uncertainty and volatility as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

THE FED’S FIREFIGHT WITH INFLATION FINALLY BEGINS: MORNING BRIEF

Yahoo Finance - Brian Cheung (2022-03-16)

The Fed’s next steps after today’s initial bump will be critical. With inflation clearly not “transitory,” the Fed may have to lean on some 0.50% hikes (that hasn’t happened since 2000) and a reduction in its $9 trillion balance sheet (that’s never been attempted at this scale) if price increases get even worse.

THE $140 BILLION QUESTION: CAN RUSSIA SELL ITS HUGE GOLD PILE?

Bloomberg - Eddie Spence (2022-03-16)

Bank of Russia expanded its gold reserves almost sixfold since the mid-2000s, creating the world’s fifth-biggest stockpile that’s valued at about $140 billion. It’s the type of asset it could sell to shore up the ruble, which has plunged as global economies isolate Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

THE PRICE OF BIDEN’S EXCUSES FOR INFLATION KEEPS RISING

WSJ - Gerald Baker (2022-03-16)

‘Make no mistake, inflation is largely the fault of Putin.”

SAUDI ARABIA CONSIDERS ACCEPTING YUAN INSTEAD OF DOLLARS FOR CHINESE OIL SALES

WSJ - Summer Said (2022-03-16)

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

WHAT WOULD A RUSSIAN BOND DEFAULT MEAN?

Investment Executive - AP (2022-03-16)

So Russia has the money to pay but says it can’t because of the sanctions that have restricted banks and frozen much of its foreign currency reserves. Ratings agencies have downgraded Russia’s credit rating to below investment grade, or “junk.” Fitch rates Russia “C,” meaning in Fitch’s view “a sovereign default is imminent.”

THE HUMBLING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE

WSJ - Staff (2022-03-15)

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, as it seeks to address the worst inflation in 40 years amid new risks to economic growth. Whatever the Fed decides on interest rates, it’s worth recalling how the central bank arrived at this unhappy moment.

WHITE HOUSE LAYS OUT GROUND RULES FOR DIGITAL ASSETS

Finextra - Finextra (2022-03-10)

The Order lays out a national policy for digital assets across six key priorities: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit finance; US leadership in the global financial system and economic competitiveness; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation.

RATE HIKES WILL HIT CANADA’S KEY GROWTH ENGINE HARDEST. WILL OTHER SECTORS PICK UP THE SLACK?

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-03-08)

The day after the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate off its pandemic-emergency floor, the central bank’s Governor, Tiff Macklem, faced down worried questions about the strains rising borrowing costs were about to place on the backs of Canadians.

BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR TIFF MACKLEM WARNS OF BROADENING INFLATION, SIGNALS AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKE PATH

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-03-04)

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank could be aggressive in pushing up borrowing costs this year, as inflationary pressures broaden and commodity prices move sharply higher in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

ECB LEARNS A LESSON ON HOW TO RUN A BOND MARKET

Bloomberg - Marcus Ashworth (2022-03-04)

The rate of change in financial markets has accelerated since Russia invaded Ukraine. With the market plumbing thus far proving sufficiently robust to accommodate wilder price swings accompanying risk transfers, even the relatively humdrum world of government debt is having to adapt. Specifically, the euro zone’s guardians of monetary stability, led by the European Central Bank, are having to intervene to reduce friction in their capital markets. It should be a wake-up call that liquidity can’t be taken for granted. 

BANK OF CANADA RAISES INTEREST RATE TO 0.5 PER CENT, PUSHING BORROWING COSTS UP FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2018

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-03-03)

The Bank of Canada has raised its policy interest rate, pushing up borrowing costs for the first time since 2018 and kicking off a series of rate hikes despite heightened economic uncertainty caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

POWELL BACKS 25-BASIS-POINT INTEREST RATE HIKE THIS MONTH, SAYS FED READY TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE

G&M - HOWARD SCHNEIDER AND LINDSAY DUNSMUIR (2022-03-02)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday he would support a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the U.S. central bank’s March 15-16 policy meeting and would be “prepared to move more aggressively” if inflation does not abate as fast as expected.

RUSSIA TO TEMPORARILY BAN FOREIGNERS FROM SELLING ASSETS

Staff - Staff (2022-03-01)

"In the current sanction situation foreign entrepreneurs are forced to be guided, not by economic factors, but to make decisions under political pressure," Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told a governmental meeting.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR IS 'A FINANCIAL WAR NOW'

Yahoo Finance - Brian Sozzi (2022-02-28)

Russia's central bank reserves have effectively been frozen amid the decision, notes Reid. The country had about $630 billion of foreign reserves, a majority of which likely resides directly with G10 banks and central banks, says Reid.

HOSTILITY TO RESOURCES COMES HOME TO ROOST AT TRANS MOUNTAIN

FP - Joe Oliver (2022-02-28)

Last week, as the world watched police restore public order in downtown Ottawa, the federal government’s hostility to resource development was dealt a huge financial blow that may in the end land-lock Canada’s immense oil reserves. Trans Mountain Corp. (TMC) announced that total costs for its pipeline expansion have ballooned 70 per cent to an eye-watering $21.4 billion, up from the latest estimate of $12.6 billion, and almost triple the initial estimate $7.4 billion. And, no surprise, the project’s projected completion was extended to the third quarter of 2023.

BIGGEST RUSSIAN BANKS COULD BE TARGETED AS WEST PREPARES SEVERE SANCTIONS OVER UKRAINE INVASION

FP - Owen Walker in London and Max Seddon in Moscow (2022-02-25)

The sanctions already put in place over the past week took aim at smaller banks, a handful of oligarchs, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the trading of Russia’s sovereign debt. But experts say that to really squeeze Putin, the West needs to take aim at the country’s biggest banks.

POZSAR SAYS $300 BILLION RUSSIA CASH PILE CAN ROIL MONEY MARKETS

Bloomberg - Garfield Clinton Reynolds (2022-02-25)

Russia still has about $300 billion of foreign currency held offshore -- enough to disrupt money markets if it’s frozen by sanctions or moved suddenly to avoid them.

CENTRAL BANKS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COURSE ON RATE HIKES DUE TO UKRAINE CONFLICT

Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi (2022-02-25)

The BoC is still forecast to hike interest rates next week, possibly with more reason. BMO reiterated they expect a full (25 bps) hike to the overnight rate at the March 2 meeting. At this time, the bank doesn’t see the crisis spilling over beyond Ukraine. If that occurs, it might need to be reviewed. The risk of uncertainty means the unlikely scenario of a 50 bps hike in Canada can be safely “put to bed.”

CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MINISTER OF EVERYTHING, HAS BIG PLANS FOR CANADA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE

G&M - Trevor Cole (2022-02-24)

Housing The federal government has an important role to play, working with municipalities and provinces, in increasing supply, including a mix of rental supply. I think now is the time for new energy in the building of co-ops. We also need to do things in terms of the financialization of housing. We need to see housing as homes for Canadian families and not a financial asset. I want to be very clear that our government has absolutely no intention of altering the position on capital gains on the principal residence of Canadians. That is a very important part of how Canadian society works. Where we need to be thoughtful is in foreign money flowing into Canadian housing and turning that into a financial asset. That’s not what Canadian houses are meant to be for.

OSC FLAGS EMERGENCIES ACT TWEETS BY KRAKEN, COINBASE CEOS TO RCMP

FP - Claire Brownell (2022-02-24)

Kristen Rose, the OSC’s manager of public affairs, said the regulator is “aware” of posts earlier this week from the Twitter accounts of Kraken CEO Jesse Powell and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, which criticized the invocation of the Emergencies Act and advocated for the importance of non-custodial crypto wallets, with Armstrong promoting his own company’s such product. Non-custodial wallets are controlled directly by an individual rather than by a third party such as a cryptocurrency-trading platform, making it more difficult for law enforcement to freeze or seize the funds they hold.

CANADA’S OLDEST BANK SEES MUCH HIGHER INFLATION AS COMMODITY PRICES RISE

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2022-02-23)

The CPI forecast is climbing more aggressively than the BoC expects. The central bank last forecast 4.2% annual growth for 2022, up from their previous forecast of  3.2% growth. Independent expectations are rising very quickly, as fewer people see monetary policy moving fast enough to cool inflation. 

JPMORGAN NOW EXPECTS NINE STRAIGHT FED RATE INCREASES UNTIL MARCH 2023

Yahoo Finance - Evie Liu (2022-02-21)

Bank's economists warn of "a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior."

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE STARTED FREEZING PROTESTERS’ BANK ACCOUNTS BASED ON RCMP INFORMATION, CHRYSTIA FREELAND SAYS

G&M - James Bradshaw, Bill Curry (2022-02-18)

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said financial institutions have started freezing bank accounts belonging to protesters involved in blockades based on information from the RCMP, and predicted the number of accounts being targeted will rise in the coming days.

BANKS GET OTTAWA PROTESTERS' NAMES AS FINANCIAL CRACKDOWN GETS UNDERWAY

FP - Kevin Orland and Brian Platt (2022-02-18)

The Canadian Bankers Association confirmed the Royal Canadian Mounted Police has provided a list to the banks. The banks are still seeking clarity from law enforcement on how to handle the alleged protesters’ accounts, according to people familiar with the matter. But Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said some accounts have already been frozen.

CANADIAN INFLATION PRESSURE IS BROADENING ACROSS CATEGORIES AS IT HITS 3 DECADE HIGH

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2022-02-17)

Canadian inflation didn’t hear your transitory call apparently — it’s widening to other categories. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the consumer price index (CPI) soared in January. The annual growth rate reached 5.1% for the month, advancing from 4.8% a month before. Canada’s inflation hasn’t grown this fast since September 1991, three decades ago. To make things worse, high inflation is being felt across categories, making it harder to slow down.

NAVIGATING UNCHARTED TERRITORY

BOC - Timothy Lane (2022-02-16)

Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses how the Bank of Canada approached decision making during the unprecedented upheaval brought on by the COVID‑19 pandemic.

WHAT IS CANADA’S FEDERAL EMERGENCIES ACT? A SUMMARY OF THE LAW’S POWERS AND USES

G&M - ABIGALE SUBDHAN AND SAMANTHA EDWARDS (2022-02-15)

On Feb. 14, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the federal government is invoking the Emergencies Act to address the blockades taking place to protest pandemic restrictions, the first time the act has been triggered in Canada.

FED OFFICIALS AGREE ON A MARCH RATE HIKE BUT LITTLE ELSE

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2022-02-15)

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, on Monday reiterated his call for the Fed to take the aggressive step of raising its benchmark short-term rate by a full percentage point by July 1. Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, expressed support for a more “gradual” approach. And Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed declined to commit herself to more than a modest rate hike next month.

BANKS GET EMERGENCY POWERS TO FREEZE ACCOUNTS, HALT FUNDS

G&M - James Bradshaw (2022-02-14)

Federal emergency act measures will expand the powers of Canada’s banks and financial intelligence agency to monitor and stem the flow of funds to protesters who have blocked downtown Ottawa and key corridors, as the federal government escalates its efforts to end the disruptions.

RAGING INFLATION FLIPS CURRENCY WARS INTO A RACE TO THE TOP

FP - Payne Lubbers (2022-02-11)

The way these battles conventionally work is this: a country tries to weaken its currency, to give it an advantage in global trade. It’s what President Donald Trump threatened to do with China, which he accused of intentionally devaluing the yuan.

RAGING INFLATION FLIPS CURRENCY WARS INTO A RACE TO THE TOP

FP - Payne Lubbers (2022-02-10)

But soaring inflation has changed priorities, since a stronger currency tends to help contain inflation by making imported goods cheaper. Strategists at TD Securities discussed the issue in a Wednesday note titled “Currency Wars in Reverse Got Markets in a Tizzy,” arguing that policy-makers now prefer strength because of the “inflationary impulse that has gripped markets over the past few quarters,” they wrote.

AT THE OLYMPICS, CHINA’S DIGITAL YUAN IS OFF TO A LESS-THAN-GOLDEN START

G&M - James Griffith (2022-02-08)

For 36 years, Visa has paid hundreds of millions of dollars to be an Olympic sponsor, ensuring its branding is all over stadiums and athletes, and that no one attending or watching the Games even thinks of Mastercard.

BANK OF AMERICA STRATEGISTS WARN FED HIKES IN PRICEY MARKET TO END POORLY

Yahoo Finance - Nikos Chrysoloras (2022-02-08)

While U.S. equities saw positive returns during previous periods of rate increases, the key risk this time round is that the Federal Reserve will be “tightening into an overvalued market,” the strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note.

FED JOINS CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD IN RACE TO RAISE RATES

Yahoo Finance - Brian Cheung (2022-02-08)

“The Fed is no longer on the dovish end of the spectrum, but it is not very hawkish relative to its G10 counterparts either,” wrote BofA Securities’ economics team over the weekend.

GOODBYE EASY MONEY AS HAWKISH CENTRAL BANKS SPEED UP RATE HIKES

Bloomberg - Simon Kennedy (2022-02-07)

Two years after the pandemic sent the global economy into a deep but short recession, central bankers are withdrawing their emergency support -- and they’re moving faster than they or most investors had foreseen.

CANDICE BERGEN VOTED INTERIM CONSERVATIVE LEADER AFTER CAUCUS OUSTS O'TOOLE

CBC - John Paul Tasker, Nick Boisvert (2022-02-03)

Candice Bergen was voted interim leader of the Conservatives on Wednesday evening after a majority of party MPs voted to remove Erin O'Toole as leader earlier in the day.

BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR SAYS IT'S UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY INFLATION WILL DROP

FP - Reuters (2022-02-03)

Macklem, speaking to the Senate banking committee, reiterated that interest rates would have to start going up this year to tackle inflation, which is currently 4.8 per cent, more than double the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

DON'T MAKE REGULATORS CHEERLEADERS FOR FINANCE, UK CAMPAIGN GROUPS SAY

Reuters - Huw Jones (2022-02-03)

Britain must ditch plans to make regulators "cheerleaders" for global finance and instead focus on promoting financial inclusion at home, consumer campaign groups said on Friday.

THE BANK OF CANADA IS ON THE CUSP OF SHEDDING BONDS FROM ITS BALANCE SHEET

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-02-01)

The Bank of Canada’s maiden voyage into quantitative easing is coming to an end. Now we’re about to find out what the return trip – quantitative tightening – looks like.

BANK OF CANADA’S GOVERNOR TIFF MACKLEM WOULD LIKE YOU TO KNOW THAT HE DOESN’T LIKE INFLATION

G&M - Mark Rendell (2022-01-31)

The Governor of the Bank of Canada spent the best part of two years promising to keep interest rates as low as they could go, even in the face of surging inflation. This week, he blinked, declaring an end to the emergency phase of monetary policy, and putting Canadians on notice that borrowing costs are going up, and soon.

BOE HAS MORE THAN RATE HIKES TO WORRY ABOUT

Bloomberg - Marcus Ashworth (2022-01-31)

In 2016, the Bank of England took a stab at estimating the interest-rate equivalent of its bond-buying program: The thinking then was that 60 billion pounds ($80 billion) of asset purchases were comparable to a Bank Rate cut of about 50 basis points.

EIGHT-MONTH DEFICIT: FEDS SPENT $73.7 BILLION MORE THAN THEY TOOK IN

Investment Executive - CP (2022-01-31)

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $73.7 billion for the April to November period of the current fiscal year.

DON’T MISREAD THE BANK OF CANADA’S DECISION AS INACTION. INTEREST RATES WILL RISE, AND QUICKLY

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2022-01-27)

First, the obvious: The bank came right out and said that it plans to raise rates very soon – and that Wednesday’s announcement was, basically, clearing the tracks in preparation. This isn’t something central banks typically do. In this case, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem underlined the point in his post-announcement news conference. He wanted to make sure no one missed it. The bluntness had a certain “don’t say we didn’t warn you” feel to it.

BOC HOLDS RATES, BUT RISING PATH STILL IN PLAY

FP - Larysa Harapyn (2022-01-27)

Josh Nye, Senior Economist with RBC, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold on interest rates, but signaled increases are coming.

BANK OF CANADA SEEN AS BEHIND THE CURVE AFTER RATE SURPRISE

Bloomberg - Erik Hertzberg and Theophilos Argitis (2022-01-27)

His own analysts presented him with evidence the economy is on the cusp of overheating and made a clear-cut economic case to hike immediately. But Macklem had told Canadians and investors they’d get a heads up before increasing rates. A move Wednesday could have been seen as a betrayal of that promise.

THE BANK OF CANADA DIDN’T RAISE RATES, IT RAISED ITS INFLATION FORECAST

Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi (2022-01-27)

Instead of raising rates to cool inflation, Canada’s central bank raised its inflation forecast. The BoC CPI estimate reached 4.2% for 2022, which is a notable jump from the 3.4% previously expected. It’s also more than double the target rate of 2% they should have been working towards. The central bank recently found out most businesses no longer believe the BoC can control the monetary supply. This presents a significant concern when attracting investment to Canada.

TRUDEAU FOE WOOS GOVERNORS TO HELP UNDO TRUCKER SHOT RULE

Bloomberg - Jen Skerritt, Kim Chipman, and Allison Smith (2022-01-26)

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said he’s working with U.S. governors to lobby President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for an end to trucker vaccine mandates that are disrupting shipments across the border.

HOW HIGH WILL THE BANK OF CANADA HIKE RATES? WE ASKED THE COUNTRY’S TOP EXPERTS

Better Dwelling (2022-01-26)

A “dot plot” of forecasts for the Bank of Canada overnight rate after each rate announcement, demonstrating sentiment distribution. 

BANK OF CANADA MAINTAINS POLICY RATE, REMOVES EXCEPTIONAL FORWARD GUIDANCE

BOC - BOC (2022-01-26)

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ %, with the Bank Rate at ½ % and the deposit rate at ¼ %. With overall economic slack now absorbed, the Bank has removed its exceptional forward guidance on its policy interest rate. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.

STIMULATING THE ECONOMY WAS EASY. TAMING INFLATION WILL BE MUCH TRICKIER.

G&M - KONRAD YAKABUSKI (2022-01-24)

If you’ve been in the market for a new refrigerator in recent weeks, you’re likely still suffering from sticker shock. Fridge prices were up almost 14 per cent in December, as Canada’s overall inflation rate hit a 30-year high of 4.8 per cent. Everything is suddenly costing more, from that fridge and the groceries you put in it (up 5.7 per cent) to a new car (7.2 per cent more) and the gas (33 per cent) it likely runs on. From home insurance (9.3 per cent) to shelter costs (5.4 per cent), Canadians are forking out more and more of their income just to cover the basics.

EU SHOULD BAN ENERGY-INTENSIVE MODE OF CRYPTO MINING, REGULATOR SAYS

FP - Eva Szalay (2022-01-24)

Thedéen said that European regulators should consider banning a mining method known as “proof of work” and instead nudge the industry towards the less energy-intensive “proof of stake” model to cut down on the sector’s vast power usage.

DEBT-STRAPPED CANADIANS BRACE FOR A RISKY RATE-HIKING CYCLE

Bloomberg - Theophilos Argitis and Erik Hertzberg (2022-01-24)

As early as next week, the Bank of Canada will start a campaign of tighter monetary policy that will test the country’s debt-laden consumers and reveal whether its robust economic recovery has staying power.

CENTRAL BANKS FACE A MOMENT OF TRUTH ON CRYPTO

Bloomberg - Lionel Laurent (2022-01-20)

The head of the Bank for International Settlements, Agustin Carstens, recently set out a dark vision for our financial future, quoting Goethe’s “Faust” and claiming that the “soul” of money was at stake.

ECB HAS EVERY REASON NOT TO ACT AS QUICKLY AS FED, LAGARDE SAYS

Bloomberg - Alexander Weber and William Horobin (2022-01-20)

“We’re all in very different situations,” Lagarde told the France Inter radio station Thursday in an interview. Inflation is “clearly weaker” in the euro area, while the region’s economic recovery is also not as advanced as in the U.S., she said. 

UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT REBUKES BIDEN FOR SUGGESTION OF ‘MINOR’ RUSSIAN ATTACK

FT - Guy Chazan, Roman Olearchyk, James Politi (2022-01-20)

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at Joe Biden’s suggestion that a “minor incursion” by Russian forces into Ukraine might not prompt the severe response the west has threatened — a remark that has alarmed allies of the US.

FED OPENS DEBATE OVER POSSIBLE DIGITAL CURRENCY

FT - James Politi and Colby Smith (2022-01-20)

After months of anticipation, the Fed on Thursday released a lengthy discussion paper that will serve as the basis of what is expected to be a heated and consequential debate at the heart of the central bank in the coming months — though it made clear it did not “favour any policy outcome” at this point.

CENTRAL BANKS MUST REDUCE THEIR BALANCE SHEETS MORE AGGRESSIVELY

FT - Kristin Forbes (2022-01-20)

Central banks do not hesitate to expand their balance sheets when a crisis hits.

WHY IS IT CANADA'S 'DUTY' TO DESTROY ITS ECONOMY AND CONFEDERATION IN THE PURSUIT OF NET ZERO?

National Post - Rex Murphy (2022-01-20)

A subsidiary question is: Does the government of a Confederation have the right, the legislative competence to declare the central industry of one of the provinces within that Confederation outmoded? And on that premise make it a national policy to destroy the economic well-being of that province?

MAKING BANK AND RIDING THE BUS: WHAT CANADIAN PRIME MINISTERS GET UP TO AFTER RETIREMENT

National Post - Tristin Hopper (2022-01-20)

In 2017, Joe Clark made an appearance in Atlanta alongside former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. It was a fitting meeting, as both men were cursed to spend the majority of their lives recovering from a brief and ultimately unsuccessful flirtation with absolute power. It’s now been 43 years since Clark’s nine-month stay in government — easily granting Clark Canadian history’s longest tenure as an ex-prime minister.

OVER 1 IN 5 CANADIAN DOLLARS CREATED DIDN’T EXIST TWO YEARS AGO

Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi (2022-01-19)

Canada’s central bank has been going Brrr, and it’s not because of the frigid winters in Ottawa. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows that the money supply is still expanding rapidly in October. The M2++ money supply hit peak annual growth last year, reaching the highest level since the 1980s. The latest numbers show over 1 in 5 Canadian dollars today, didn’t exist prior to 2020. Traditionally the expansion of the money supply precedes inflation. That explains a lot.

ECONOMISTS SAY BANK OF CANADA TO BEGIN HIKING RATES NEXT WEEK

Bloomberg - Erik Hertzberg (2022-01-18)

Economists at TD Securities and Laurentian Bank said Monday the Bank of Canada will start a hiking cycle at its policy decision on Jan. 26. Bank of Montreal brought forward its call on the first increase to March from April, while Bank of Nova Scotia said the central bank “cannot afford” to wait any longer. 

BANK OF CANADA POLICY IS “TOO LOOSE,” RATE HIKES WILL REDUCE REAL ESTATE FROTH: BMO

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2022-01-18)

Canada’s central bank has been tight-lipped about its next moves. The Bank of Canada last told the public that April would be the earliest they’ll be raising rates. That was back when they said inflation was transitory though. Since then, the US has dismissed the transitory narrative and Canada’s central bank has been quiet.

FINANCIAL SECTOR FACES CLIMATE TRANSITION RISK, SAYS BOC AND BANKING REGULATOR

G&M - MARK RENDELL AND JEFFREY JONES (2022-01-17)

Canada’s long-term economic growth and the stability of its financial system could be put at risk if the country delays implementing policies to deal with the transition to a low-carbon world, the central bank and the banking regulator say in a report analyzing a range of possible climate scenarios.

The Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions examined the balance sheets of Royal Bank of Canada 

TRADERS FACE RISKS WITH BETS BANK OF CANADA WILL OUTDO FED ON HIKES

Bloomberg - Payne Lubbers and Edward Bolingbroke (2022-01-14)

Traders have boosted expectations for the pace of central bank rate hikes in Canada even more than in the U.S., provoking questions about whether the market might have gone too far, too fast.

WHY CENTRAL BANKS ARE KEY TO GLOBAL ECONOMIES IN 2022

Bloomberg - Video (2022-01-14)

As the coronavirus pandemic rages on for a third year, Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders explains on “Quicktake Stock” why Covid-19 will take a back seat to central banks as a driver for global economies this year.

USING SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO ASSESS CLIMATE TRANSITION RISK

OSFI - OSFI (2022-01-14)

The Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) completed their climate scenario analysis pilot in collaboration with six Canadian federally regulated financial institutions. 

POWELL MAKES CASE FOR FED CURBING INFLATION WHILE DOING NO HARM

Bloomberg - Rich Miller and Craig Torres (2022-01-12)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure lawmakers and investors on Tuesday that the central bank can pull off the tricky task of bringing down four-decade high inflation without damaging the U.S. economy.

THE GREENING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE

WSJ - Editorial Board (2022-01-12)

Jerome Powell faced the Senate Banking Committee at his confirmation hearing for a second term at the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, and it’s a sign of the progressive times that a leading issue was the greening of the central bank. Not green as in money, but as in climate regulation.

FINAL REPORT OF THE BOC-OSFI CLIMATE SCENARIO ANALYSIS PILOT

BOC - BOC (2022-01-12)

On Friday, January 14, 2022, the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) will publish the Final Report of the BoC-OSFI Climate Scenario Analysis Pilot.

BANK REGULATOR MULLS HIGHER CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR BANKS AS CUSHION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS

G&M - James Bradshaw (2022-01-11)

Canada’s banking regulator could raise capital requirements for banks in the coming years to build up new buffers against risks from climate change and the challenging transition to a greener economy.

Peter Routledge, who leads the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), said at a virtual conference held by Royal Bank of Canada on Wednesday that the regulator “will expect federally regulated financial institutions to build up their capital buffers in the 2020s.”

New capital buffers would be designed to guard against potentially higher volatility and risks to the financial sector as action to combat climate change ramps up, and especially if some of the tougher measures are put off past 2030.

After OSFI lifted those restrictions in November, with Mr. Routledge urging banks to “act responsibly” with their surplus capital, the six largest banks announced dividend increases of 10 per cent to 25 per cent, and plans to buy back 2 per cent to 3.5 per cent of their shares. And in late December, Bank of Montreal 

CANADA HAS COMMITTED TO HALT FINANCING TO THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY. TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT REALLY MEANS, WATCH FOR THE FINE PRINT

G&M - Matthew McClearn (2022-01-10)

Of all the recipients of Canadian government support in recent years, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) ranks among the strangest. Export Development Canada, a Crown corporation, provided 19 loans to Mexico’s state-owned oil company over 15 years, totalling somewhere between $3-billion and $5.7-billion (EDC only discloses ranges, not precise amounts). The Indian Oil Company received somewhere between $190-million and $425-million. Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil company, got at least $1-billion.

LATEST EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS POSITIVE, BUT ‘A LITTLE BIT STALE’

Investment Executive - Greg Mechbach (2022-01-10)

Canada’s unemployment rate was 5.9% in December, down from 6% in November and 7.1% in August, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE MAY NEED TO HIKE RATES FASTER, REDUCE BALANCE SHEET QUICKLY, MINUTES SHOW

G&M - Howard Schneider (2022-01-06)

Federal Reserve officials said last month that the U.S. labour market was “very tight” and might need the U.S. central bank not just to raise interest rates sooner than expected but also reduce its overall asset holdings to tame high inflation, according to minutes of their Dec. 14-15 policy meeting.

FEDERAL DOCUMENTS HINT AT SWEEPING ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM CENTRAL BANK ‘DIGITAL LOONIE’

Investment Executive - Jordan Press (2022-01-05)

In one briefing note from last January, officials warned Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland that the issuance of a central bank digital currency would entail “wide-reaching implications for the economy, the financial system” and the Bank of Canada’s operations.

CPP PREMIUMS SET TO RISE IN JANUARY, A BIGGER JUMP THAN PLANNED

CBC - CP (2022-01-03)

The increase is part of a multi-year plan approved by provinces and the federal government five years ago to boost retirement benefits through the public plan by increasing contributions over time. The increases started in 2019.

A NEW YEAR AND NEW HIKE TO CPP PREMIUMS— THE LARGEST IN THREE DECADES — TO HIT CANADIANS

National Post - National Post (2022-01-02)

In the case of CPP, maximum contributions by employees and employers will be $3,499.80 in 2022, up from $3,166. For self-employed Canadians, the maximum amount will be $6,999, up from $6,332.

BANK OF CANADA’S MONETARY POLICY DIRECTION IN 2022 COULD DEPEND ON THE PUBLIC’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

G&M - Mark Rendell (2021-12-28)

Bank of Canada officials spent much of 2021 assuring people that this period of high inflation would be relatively short-lived. The shape of monetary policy next year could depend to a significant degree on whether Canadians continue to believe this narrative.

WHO WILL GET THE FED REGULATION JOB? HERE ARE SOME OF THE CONTENDERS

Reuters - Pete Schroeder and Michelle Price (2021-12-28)

Speculation over who will get the role is once again ramping up, after the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday reported that the White House was considering Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former Fed governor and former Treasury Department official, for the position.

CENTRAL BANKS HAVE BLINKED ON INFLATION, IN RACE TO AVERT THE SECOND ROUND

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2021-12-21)

Last week may go down as the moment the world’s central bankers lost their staring contest with inflation.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEPOSITED NEARLY $26 MILLION IN THE WRONG BANK ACCOUNTS LAST YEAR

CBC - Elizabeth Thompson (2021-12-21)

The federal government deposited nearly $26 million into the wrong bank accounts during the last fiscal year — and more than $10 million of it may be gone for good.

BANK OF CANADA FILLS IN MANDATE BLANKS AMID INFLATION DISCOMFORT

Bloomberg - Shelly Hagan, Erik Hertzberg (2021-12-16)

Governor Tiff Macklem underscored that price stability is central to the Bank of Canada’s renewed mandate and indicated that any new flexibility will apply only at times when inflation is low or the economy is weak.

US FEDERAL RESERVE DOUBLES THE PACE OF TAPERING, RBC FORECASTS EARLIER RATE HIKES

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2021-12-16)

The Fed held rates but will double the speed it tapers its bond-buying, a sign easy credit will come to an end. The Fed will lower its Treasury purchases by another US$20 billion next month. Mortgage backed securities purchases will also fall by US$10 billion. At this pace, the program should be over by mid-March. Before this announcement, RBC didn’t see the program ending until mid-2022.

OTTAWA’S ‘FISCAL GUARDRAILS’ ON DEBT LEVELS HAVE SUDDENLY GONE AWOL

G&M - Patrick Brethour (2021-12-15)

In November, 2020, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland sidled past demands for a fiscal anchor, such as setting a target level for Canada’s debt burden, to limit the growth in the federal government’s spending and debt. Instead, she announced, the government would adopt “fiscal guardrails,” broader economic measures that would guide decisions on $100-billion of stimulus spending over three years.

FED SEEN DELIVERING ONE OF THE MOST HAWKISH PIVOTS IN YEARS

Bloomberg - Steve Matthews and Sarina Yoo (2021-12-15)

More than half predict the Fed’s quarterly forecasts, released after the conclusion of its two-day meeting Wednesday, will show the median of 18 officials projecting two rate hikes next year from current levels near zero.

THE PRICE OF THE FED’S DELAY

WSJ - Editorial Board (2021-12-15)

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting this week, and its members were greeted Tuesday with the rude welcome of surging wholesale prices. This is more evidence that Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have made a historic mistake that they now have to fix without sending the economy into recession.

THE BOC IS WAITING FOR FULL EMPLOYMENT TO RAISE RATES. BANKS SAY CANADA IS PAST THAT

Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong (2021-12-15)

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said, “mission accomplished” because they already hit full employment. His analysis shows prime-aged (15-64) workers’ employment rate is at a record high. The rate is “easily” past pre-pandemic levels. At the start of 2020, the Canadian economy was also considered robust. By no measure is this a weak employment market. 

FED TO ACCELERATE WITHDRAWAL OF ECONOMIC AID AS PRICES SURGE

Investment Executive - Christopher Rugaber (2021-12-15)

On Wednesday, the Fed will likely announce that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases at twice the rate that Powell had outlined just six weeks ago. Those bond purchases are intended to lower longer-term rates, so winding them down more quickly — likely by early spring — will lessen some of the economic aid the Fed supplied after the pandemic erupted last year.

BANK OF CANADA’S NEW MANDATE COMES WITH ONE WRINKLE: POLITICS

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2021-12-14)

The renewal of the Bank of Canada’s mandate agreement with the federal government grants the central bank a five-year licence to, largely, continue doing what it has already been doing.

MICHAEL SABIA WAS GREETED AS A GAME CHANGER AS CANADA’S DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER. A YEAR LATER, HE HAS MADE LITTLE HEADWAY

G&M - Robert Fife, Steven Chase (2021-12-14)

Michael Sabia spent decades helming major Canadian companies before the Liberal government recruited him to be deputy minister of the federal Department of Finance in late 2020. He accepted the job, he said at the time, in order to drive an economic-growth agenda in Ottawa.

BANK OF CANADA RENEWS 2-PER-CENT INFLATION TARGET, EMPHASIZES MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT

G&M - Mark Rendell (2021-12-14)

The federal government has directed the Bank of Canada to put more emphasis on full employment as it aims to keep inflation low and stable. It is the most significant change to the central bank’s mandate in three decades, and reflects evolving ideas about the nature of the economy and monetary policy.

'TRANSITORY' WAS THE WORST INFLATION CALL IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S HISTORY, SAYS MOHAMED EL-ERIAN

FP - Eric Martin (2021-12-14)

“The characterization of inflation as transitory — it’s probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve,” El-Erian said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

JOINT STATEMENT ON CRYPTO-ASSET POLICY SPRINT INITIATIVE AND NEXT STEPS

RealVision - Office of the Comptroller of Currency (2021-12-13)

A wave of de-banking may be coming to crypto and fintech over the coming 12 months. Regulators conducted a series of interagency "policy sprints" focused on crypto assets. They recently issued a joint statement with a roadmap of the agencies' plans to clarify throughout 2022 whether certain activities are "legally permissible." Paul Atkins, CEO & Founder of Patomak Global Partners and former SEC Commissioner, joins Real Vision in this exclusive interview to break down what this letter could mean for the banking organizations. Interviewed by Maggie Lake on December 11, 2021. Check out the joint statement from the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC here: https://bit.ly/3ytNTRF

A SWIFT ROUTE TO ECONOMIC RUIN

G&M - Eric Reguly (2021-12-12)

Thank God for financial globalization, the Americans must be thinking. The Russian financial system is no longer an island, as it was in the Soviet era. But it can effectively be turned back into one, just like that – by flicking a switch.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND TO ANNOUNCE BANK OF CANADA’S RENEWED MANDATE ON MONDAY

G&M - Mark Rendell (2021-12-12)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will announce the Bank of Canada’s new mandate on Monday in a long-awaited decision that is expected to keep the central bank’s inflation target at 2 per cent while adding new language about how it should factor in employment when setting interest rates.

BRACE FOR IMPACT: RATE HIKES ARE COMING

G&M - William Robson (2021-12-12)

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem, like U.S. Fed chairman Jerome Powell, is clearly starting to view continuing high inflation with concern. A change is coming in monetary policy. With demand outrunning supply, our central banks’ policy interest rates need to rise – and may rise a lot.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND EXPECTED TO RENEW BANK OF CANADA’S 2 PER CENT INFLATION TARGET

G&M - BILL CURRY AND MARK RENDELL (2021-12-10)

Economists expect Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to renew the Bank of Canada’s mandate of aiming its monetary policy at keeping inflation around 2 per cent, and to add new guidance to consider employment levels when it makes its decisions, but stop short of a dual mandate.

BANK OF CANADA WORRIED SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS WILL PERSIST, STOKING INFLATION FOR LONGER

FP - Shelly Hagan (2021-12-10)

While reiterating that officials expect these constraints to eventually ease along with inflation next year, Gravelle emphasized there’s a lot of uncertainty around that outlook. In January, the central bank will reassess whether bottlenecks and shortages are impacting the economy’s ability to grow without fuelling inflation.

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS ON INTEREST RATES, STILL SEES HIKES IN MIDDLE QUARTERS OF NEXT YEAR

G&M - Mark Rendell (2021-12-09)

The Bank of Canada left monetary policy unchanged Wednesday in a stand-pat interest-rate decision that highlighted stubbornly high inflation and accelerating wage growth while pointing to economic uncertainty tied to the Omicron variant of COVID-19.

A BIG BANK SENT TRADERS A CHRISTMAS POEM ABOUT THE BANK OF CANADA’S INACTION

Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi (2021-12-09)

The poem isn’t overly critical of Good Guv’nor Macklem but doesn’t portray him as a man of the public. It starts with ignoring the issues they’re meant to prioritize, such as inflation and input costs. Then celebrates the gains stocks made due to “printing” and ignoring that the market sees rates this low as irresponsible. Circumstances that are a tragedy for the working and middle class, but great for the rich.  

THE BANK OF CANADA HELD RATES AND DROPPED A FIB ABOUT BUYING GOVERNMENT BONDS

Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi (2021-12-09)

Canada’s central bank is holding rates, which shouldn’t have been a surprise. The BoC is keeping the 0.25% overnight rate and said they’ll continue executing its reinvestment plan. As of Nov 1, the BoC has promised to only buy Government of Canada (GoC) bonds to replace those rolling off its balance sheet. They said their holdings of GoC bonds are “roughly constant” this morning.

TIME FOR THE BANK OF CANADA TO MAKE A HARD CHOICE

FP - David Laidler (2021-12-08)

Consider the Bank of Canada, now caught in a trap of its own making. Its mandate, pending an imminent renewal, requires it to maintain inflation in a range around two per cent, but its “forward guidance,” issued incessantly for the past year, has promised to keep the overnight rate of interest at 0.25 per cent until the real economy has returned to “normal” — at a date that lately seems to have been creeping closer from its original value somewhere around the end of 2022. The Bank is stuck with two quantitative targets, one, an inflation target agreed with the government that is its ultimate policy goal, and the other, its own creation, its target for the overnight rate, which is its main policy instrument. And it doesn’t seem to have thought much about what to do if they proved incompatible, which they now have. So: how did the Bank get into this mess, and more important, how does it extract itself?
We shouldn’t criticise the authorities for rapid resort to strong and unconventional stimulus when COVID-19 struck last March. To continue with “inflation targeting as usual” in those circumstances would have been a bit like sticking to the rules of the Gold Standard in the summer of 1914. Nor should we really complain that the stimulus turned out to be a bit excessive — better too much than too little under the circumstances, surely? The Bank’s fault, which it has shared to varying degrees with the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, lay in failing to appreciate sufficiently the inflationary risk inherent in its measures, and even more so, in issuing its forward interest-rate guidance with an unwarranted degree of certainty.

OSFI’S NEW GREEN GROUP A PLUS FOR CANADA

Investment Executive - James Langton (2021-12-07)

“We believe globally coordinated efforts on climate risk management help financial institutions understand the consequences of climate change for their business, support their efforts to develop important climate risk management capabilities and capitalize on opportunities presented by climate change,” it said.

AS IT EYES INFLATION, THE BANK OF CANADA MUST MIND THE FAST-CLOSING LABOUR GAP

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2021-12-06)

If you take your eyes off Canada’s rocket car of a labour market for a moment as it zooms up the recovery road, and look back far behind it, you’ll spot something petty important that it has left in its dust.

FREELAND TO RELEASE FALL FISCAL UPDATE JUST DAYS BEFORE BREAK

G&M - Bill Curry (2021-12-03)

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has set Dec. 14 as the release date for a fall fiscal update, which will be the first formal revision of the federal government’s economic forecast since the April budget.

WALL STREET ENDS LOWER AS TAPER ACCELERATION WORRIES PILE ONTO OMICRON ANGST

FP - Devik Jain (2021-12-01)

“The principal contributor to the decline in stock prices today is the Powell commentary, regarding the upcoming Fed meeting, about accelerating the tapering of their bond buying program, which obviously leads to the prospect that rate hikes come sooner next year,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

LIRA CRASH SPURS FIRST CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION SINCE 2014

Bloomberg - Onur Ant and Asli Kandemir (2021-12-01)

The monetary authority said in a statement that it took action due to “unhealthy price formations” in the lira, which has been in freefall since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed his push for lower interest rates. 

FCA TO DOUBLE FEES CHARGED TO REGULATED FIRMS

Finextra - Finextra (2021-12-01)

The watchdog says the fee increase would better reflect the costs associated with the authorisation and supervision of 51,000 firms throughout the UK.

THE INDIGENOUS ECONOMY IN CANADA: PARTNERING TO PROMOTE

BOC - Lawrence Schembri (2021-12-01)

Role of BOC in inigenous economies described in power point.

FREELAND MUST TREAD CAREFULLY IN DEBATE ON BANK OF CANADA’S INFLATION MANDATE

G&M - DAVID PARKINSON (2021-11-30)

Or maybe Ms. Freeland was hinting that the government’s renewal of the Bank of Canada’s five-year mandate – the underlying principles that the bank applies when deciding on interest rates – will be a lot more this time around than the usual rubber-stamping of another five years of the bank’s long-standing 2-per-cent inflation target. Perhaps Ms. Freeland is prepared to step into the debate about the central bank’s monetary policy-setting framework in a way that no Canadian government has in decades.

FEDERAL DEFICIT HITS NEARLY $69B OVER FIRST HALF OF FISCAL YEAR

Investment Executive - CP (2021-11-29)

Program spending, excluding net actuarial losses, between April and September was $225 billion, a decline of about $83.9 billion, or 27.2% drop, from the $308.9 billion in the same period one year earlier.

TRUDEAU UNDER FIRE AFTER U.S. RAISES DUTY RATES ON CANADIAN SOFTWOOD PRODUCERS

G&M - Steven Chase, Brent Jang (2021-11-26)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government was criticized Thursday for its handling of Canadian-American relations in the wake of an announcement by the United States that it would double the rate of punitive duties on most softwood imports from Canada.

OPPOSITION GRILLS TRUDEAU ON INFLATION, HOUSING AS ECONOMIC ISSUES TOP PARLIAMENT AGENDA

G&M - MARIEKE WALSH AND MARK RENDELL (2021-11-25)

Mr. Trudeau was derided by Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s front bench on his grasp of the issues at stake for ordinary people, as deputy leader Candice Bergen challenged him to name the price of common goods such as bread and bacon and beans, and of surf boards – one of the Prime Minister’s favoured vacation activities.

LEADERSHIP SHAKE-UP TO TEST MEXICAN CENTRAL BANK AS INFLATION SOARS

Reuters - Anthony Esposito (2021-11-25)

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's surprise shakeup of the nomination process for the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) next chief has cast doubt over the bank's rate-tightening cycle as it battles to keep high inflation in check.

EMERGING PRUDENTIAL RISKS IN HOUSING

OSFI - Peter Routledge (2021-11-24)

Although the word “exuberant” characterizes the housing markets in many Canadian cities & towns since the fall of 2020, we at OSFI believe residential mortgage credit risk has risen only modestly. There remains a risk that residential mortgage credit conditions could deteriorate, but fortunately OSFI has leveraged several prudential tools to increase the margin of safety in that market. In this endeavour, our federal and provincial financial safety-net peers have contributed mightily. Nevertheless, we consider the current imbalance between housing demand and supply to be a material prudential risk, and all actors in the Canadian housing system must take actions if we are to lessen the risk.

REMARKS BY TIFF MACKLEM, GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF CANADA, AND BY LAWRENCE SCHEMBRI, DEPUTY GOVERNOR

BOC - Tiff Macklem (2021-11-24)

On Monday, November 29, and Tuesday, November 30, 2021, the Bank of Canada will host the inaugural Symposium on Indigenous Economies, a joint conference of the Bank of Canada, the Tulo Centre of Indigenous Economics and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. It is the first in a series of bi-annual events examining the unique economic issues facing Indigenous peoples. The Symposium seeks to build cultural awareness and foster inclusion, strengthen engagement with Indigenous communities and support economic and financial education for and about Indigenous people.

JAPANESE BANKS TO TEST DIGITAL CURRENCY

Finextra - Finextra (2021-11-24)

The digital currency will be backed by bank deposits and use a shared platform to accelerate fund transfers and settlement between companies. While there will be a shared platform, a separate "business process area" will mean that the currency can be programmed to meet different business needs of the participants.

BIDEN NOMINATES JEROME POWELL FOR A SECOND TERM AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR

G&M - Christopher Rugaber (2021-11-22)

President Joe Biden announced Monday he’s nominating Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair, endorsing Powell’s stewardship of the economy through a brutal pandemic recession in which the Fed’s ultralow rate policies helped bolster confidence and revitalize the job market.

POWELL, BRAINARD NOD TO INFLATION THREAT IN NOMINATION REMARKS

Reuters - Reuters (2021-11-22)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Monday both noted the corrosive impact high inflation is having on the U.S. economy and American families in what may be a signal that controlling the rapid pace of price increases is now the central bank's top priority.

JACK M. MINTZ: POLITICIANS BEWARE: DEFICITS EVENTUALLY BITE

FP - Jack M. Mintz (2021-11-19)

This is not as simple a matter as you might think. It depends on how deficits are dealt with in later years. When fiscal policy tightens, governments typically avoid raising taxes or cutting spending on the poor. If so, richer provinces like Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia will see a rise in transfers to other provinces. On the other hand, if the federal government splurges on policies that benefit the rich, such as electric cars or licensing restrictions, net transfers from wealthier provinces might well decline.

HOUSE SET TO APPROVE $2 TRILLION SOCIAL SPENDING AND CLIMATE BILL

WSJ - Andrew Duehren and Richard Rubin (2021-11-19)

The House was set to pass a roughly $2 trillion education, healthcare and climate package Friday, as Democrats corralled their slim majority to approve the centerpiece of President Biden’s economic agenda after months of wrangling.

CORPORATE DEBT ATTRACTS HEAVY FOREIGN INVESTMENT: STATSCAN

Investment Executive - James Langton (2021-11-19)

Through the first nine months of 2021, foreign investors bought $126.0-billion-worth of Canadian securities, up from $108.7 billion for the same period in 2020.

REMARKS BY NEVILLE HENDERSON - 2021 MORTGAGE INSURANCE AND P&C RISK MANAGEMENT SEMINAR

OSFI - Neville Henderson (2021-11-18)

COVID-19 has accelerated risks, which require accelerated responses to those risks from institutions and regulators. Even before the onset of the pandemic economic pressures due to extended period of low interest rates, uncertain and volatile business conditions, and growing exposures to non-financial risks were shaping the future of the insurance sector.

JAMEY HUBBS

OSFI - Superintendent Jamey Hubbs at the Canadian Regulatory Technology Association annual meeting (2021-11-18)

OSFI’s approach to digitalization is determined through our mandate. OSFI’s purpose as stated in the OSFI Act is “to ensure that financial institutions and pension plans are regulated by an office of the Government of Canada so as to contribute to public confidence in the Canadian financial system”. We see the potential to unlock greater value for Canadians who expect their regulators to temper, but not inhibit, innovations. Our approach is in finding that balance to foster financial stability and contribute to Canadians confidence in their financial system.

JPMORGAN ECONOMISTS NOW PREDICT FED TO RAISE RATES IN SEPTEMBER

Bloomberg - Simon Kennedy (2021-11-18)