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Informative real estate articles

Housing Chief Pleads With Canadian Banks to Avoid Risky Mortgages
( Bloomberg - Doug Alexander)  - Risk Management Issues
“Our decision to tighten underwriting standards was driven by economic systemic concerns,” said Siddall, the former Goldman Sachs banker who has run the country’s main housing finance agency since 2014.
“There is no doubt that we have willingly chosen to forego some profitable business that our competitors would find appealing,” he said. “CMHC’s purview extends beyond our narrow commercial interests to macroeconomic impacts and there is a dark economic underbelly in this business that I want to expose.”
As hundreds of stores shut down, retail landlords cut rents in bid to help struggling companies survive
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Some retail landlords are starting to chop rents to help tenants survive as the coronavirus pandemic enters its fifth month and a flood of retailers close stores and seek creditor protection.

Vancouver home sales spike as record low mortgage rates, limited supply drive competition
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Competitive Issues

Vancouver’s housing market spiked in July, with sales and prices climbing, as record low mortgage rates and limited supply whipped up competition after a brief slowdown from the coronavirus pandemic.

CMHC: Toronto And Vancouver Real Estate Delinquencies Rise, While The Rest Of Canada Falls
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Risk Management Issues
Toronto mortgage delinquencies are rising from all-time lows a few years ago. The rate reached 0.11% in Q1 2020, unchanged from the quarter before. Compared to the same quarter last year, this was 10.0% higher. This was the biggest Q1 for mortgage delinquencies since 2017. A key difference between then and now being it was falling back then, and it’s rising now.
‘It’s a 180-degree turn’: Toronto realtors see signs of a pandemic exodus
( G&M - Carolyn Ireland)  - Attitude and Preference Issues

The abrupt changes brought about by the coronavirus pandemic are prompting many Toronto-area residents to make some urgent decisions about where and how they want to live.

Home Capital sees sharp drop in mortgage deferrals as economy reopens
( G&M - James Bradshaw)  - Risk Management Issues

The alternative mortgage lender’s deferrals fell from 9,903 mortgages worth more than $3.9-billion as of April 30 to 2,698 loans with a combined balance of $1.3-billion by July 31, according to second-quarter financial disclosures Home Capital released on Thursday. Most borrowers whose deferrals expired returned to making normal payments or restructured their loans to allow them to make lower payments over a longer period.

‘People still want to own homes’ but COVID-19 may test Canada’s housing market, says Home Capital CEO
(FP - Geoff Zochodne)  - Attitude and Preference Issues

“You can see from the results we are reporting today that people still want to own homes, and not even a global health crisis has changed that,” said Yousry Bissada, Home Capital’s CEO, during a conference call with analysts and investors.

From real estate to businesses, signs the pandemic is boosting wealth concentration
( CBC - Don Pittis)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
While many smaller corporations and even more small businesses, such as corner stores and restaurants, go under, companies and individuals with a solid base and a strong cash flow can borrow at historically low rates — allowing them to stock up on assets they expect will keep their value once the crisis is over.
Mortgage rates have never been cheaper -- here's how to take advantage
(FP - Shane Murphy)  - Competitive Issues
If you’re in the market for a home, your timing couldn’t be better. Mortgage rates are at record lows, and experts say this is the perfect opportunity to lock in a loan at a great price.
The curious connection between two Ontario financial scandals and millions of dollars that vanished
( G&M - Greg Mcarthur)  - Industry Conduct and Practices Issues

Mr. Anastasio was an associate of John Aquino, Bondfield’s then-CEO, who the monitor has also alleged took part in the scheme. In addition to $2-million in proceeds that allegedly flowed from the phony companies to Mr. Anastasio, forensic auditors also allege they have traced $5.2-million that flowed to Mr. Aquino from 2014 to 2019, court records show. For his part, Mr. Aquino, who was terminated from his position at Bondfield in 2018, has denied any wrongdoing, saying in an affidavit, “I am implicated in a matter that I believe is without merit.”

Bank of Canada expected to cut five-year mortgage rate to 4.79 per cent
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues

Mortgage experts expect the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark five-year mortgage rate to 4.79 per cent from the current 4.94 per cent as soon as this Wednesday, as the majority of the big Canadian banks now have a five-year posted rate of 4.79 per cent. The central bank sets its benchmark according to the rate that appears most frequently among the six biggest banks.

Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Makes A Slight Dip, Previous Month Revised Lower
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Competitive Issues
Canadian mortgage credit may have seen annual growth peak for the year. The balance of credit reached $1.68 trillion in June, up 0.55% from a month before. This represents an increase of 5.59%, when compared to the same month last year. This is very substantial growth, but there’s a few non-obvious takeaways.
Home building hits highest level since late 2017, defying CMHC forecasts
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Canadian home building spiked in July, as developers broke new ground on condos in major cities and oil-producing regions, marking the second straight month of robust activity after work stoppages from the novel coronavirus pandemic.

Interactive Brokers to Pay $38 Million Over Anti-Money Laundering Claims
(WSJ - Stephen Nakrosis)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues
The SEC’s action focused on a one-year period ending in the middle of 2017.
CMHC urges lenders to stop offering so many high-risk mortgages
( CBC - Pete Evans)  - Risk Management Issues
The goal was to make it harder to get an insured loan, in the hopes that borrowers already stretched thin would not be able to get one and thus not be able to get in even further over their heads by buying a house they may not be able to afford. But things didn't quite work out that way.
Toronto Real Estate’s Latest Problem Is Soaring Rental Inventory
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Risk Management Issues
The City is seeing rental inventory rise very rapidly, something that hasn’t happened in a very long time. There were 8,346 new listings for rentals in July, up 82.1% (!) from the same month last year. The number of new listings for rentals hasn’t been this high since at least 2016, when condo apartment prices began their rapid ascent. Even though the data only goes back to 2016, this trend likely goes back at least a few more years.
The summer of the reno leads to lumber shortage in Canada
( G&M - Niall McGee)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Canada is facing a lumber shortage, with builders likely paying more for the material than ever before.

Mortgage insurers cool to extending six-month pandemic payment deferrals
(FP - Geoff)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
Homeowners counting on mortgage payments being deferred beyond the six-month break they have received during the pandemic might want to reconsider, as home-loan insurers that have permitted postponements appear cool towards extending the holiday. 
Canadian home sales, prices hit record high in July as low mortgage rates drive buyers into market
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Risk Management Issues

Canadian home sales and prices surged to a record high in July, as buyers flooded the market and took advantage of low mortgage rates after the coronavirus pandemic briefly slowed activity in the spring.

U.S. home-builder confidence matches record high, while delinquencies rise
( G&M - Reuters)  - Attitude and Preference Issues

U.S. home builder confidence rose for a third straight month in August to match its highest level ever as record-low interest rates spur buyer traffic, data released on Monday showed in the latest indication the housing market is a rare bright spot in the economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.

'The system is broken': Pandemic exacerbates landlord-tenant power struggle with both sides crying foul
(FP - Vanmala Subramaniam)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
Dean Thornhill, a small-scale landlord and resident of Brampton, Ont., has been waiting for almost six months to get an eviction hearing at the province’s Landlord and Tenant Board (LTB).
Canadian home sales surged to a record in July as homebuyers emerged from lockdowns.
( Bloomberg - CREA)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Transactions for existing properties reached 62,355 in the month, up 26% from a month earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported. Benchmark prices were 2.3% higher on the month, as pent-up demand for homes collided with extremely low inventory levels.
Head Of Canada’s Housing Agency: “Vested Interests Are Strongest Right Before The Fall”
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
Notably absent from the letter was almost a page of reasons supporting his concern. In the portion absent, he outlined why first-time buyers and the economy had a lot to lose. Despite this, the industry is proceeding, knowing borrowers have more to lose than the industry. He said this resembles the scenario explained in Reckless Endangerment, making it the first direct government comparison to the US housing crisis in over almost a decade.
More homes were sold in Canada in July than in any month in history
( Bloomberg - Bloomberg)  - Risk Management Issues
Transactions for existing properties reached 62,355 in the month, up 26 per cent from a month earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported. Benchmark prices were 2.3 per cent higher on the month, as pent-up demand for homes collided with extremely low inventory levels.
Priced out of the big city? Here are seven housing markets young buyers can afford in COVID-19 times
( G&M - Rob Carrick)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Real estate is hot enough in the COVID-19 era that they’re feeling the heat in Saint John, N.B.

Canadian home prices edge up in July, but data point to a slowing market
( G&M - Julie Gordon)  - Competitive Issues

Canadian home prices rose in July, led by the Quebec City and Ottawa-Gatineau markets, though it was the smallest July advance in 15 years, data showed on Thursday, confirming the slowing of the housing market in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RBC report says immigration slowdown threatens Canadian economy
(IE - CP)  - Risk Management Issues
“Canada does rely on having large numbers of people coming to the country to fuel growth and, if we see these large declines, one concern could be that people may decide maybe they don’t want to come to Canada anymore,” said report author Andrew Agopsowicz, a senior economist for RBC who studies labour trends.
Canadian Households Have Deferred Payments On Debt Worth $247 Billion
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
The highest percent of balances on payment deferral are what people expect – subprime borrowers. Subprime borrowers have deferred payments on the balance of 25% of loans as of June 30. Prime borrowers have deferred payment on the balance of 16% of loans. Super prime borrows deferred the smallest percent of balances, having paused payments on 8% of loans. Despite the high rate of deferrals for subprime borrowers, it’s a small segment of debt.
Canadian property techs are in danger of dying from data starvation
(FP - Haider-Moranis Bulletin)  - Fintech and AI
A 2018 report by McKinsey Global Institute estimated that neural networks-based deep learning algorithms have the potential to “enable the creation of between $3.5 trillion and $5.8 trillion in value annually.” But such value creation is possible when the sophistication of algorithms is matched by the richness of the available data.
Why this taxpayer had to pay taxes on what he thought was the sale of his principal residence
(FP - Jamie Golombek)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues
Four criteria must be satisfied under the Income Tax Act in order for a property to qualify as your principal residence: the property must be a housing unit; you must own the property (either alone or jointly with someone else); you, your spouse or kids must “ordinarily inhabit” the property; and, you must “designate” the property as a principal residence.
Canada’s Largest Real Estate Markets Are Still Seeing Large Immigration Declines
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Toronto real estate is seeing a big slow down for immigration. Only 7,135 permanent residents arrived in June, down 41.6% from last year. Year-to-date the number reached 61,430 permanent residents, down 24.3% compared to last year. There’s fewer new permanent residents, but the spike in the first-two months of the year softened total declines.
Bank Of Canada’s Mortgage Buying Is A Quarter The Size Of New Mortgage Credit
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
The scale of this buy wasn’t really clear until the latest mortgage credit data. At the end of June, outstanding residential mortgage credit reached $1.68 trillion, rising $29.24 billion from March. That means the BoC injected $1 into CMBs, for every $4 increase in outstanding mortgage credit. A mind blowing amount of stimulus to buy an asset that is typically dependent on employment for price growth.
Toronto New Home Sales Drop Over 40%, But 905 Demand Surges Higher
(Better Dwelling - Kaitlin Last)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Greater Toronto new home sales are on fire, everywhere but in the actual city. Data from Altus Group and BILD GTA shows new home sales had the biggest July in over a decade. Surprisingly, this trend is driven almost exclusively by suburban home sales. In the City of Toronto, new home sales have dropped by nearly half, despite the 905 setting new records.
Home renovation spending heats up again after COVID-19 pandemic led to deep freeze
( CBC - Pete Evans)  - Competitive Issues
After rising to a record high last year in Canada, spending on home renovations fell off a cliff in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
CMHC still bracing for impact of COVID-19 on housing market
( CBC - CP)  - Risk Management Issues
The housing market will have to reckon with significant short-term uncertainty, as well as falling housing demand from weaker household incomes in the medium term, the Crown corporation said on Friday.
Canada’s bank regulator rolling back loan deferral programs for banks, insurers
( G&M - Mark Rendell)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues

Canada’s banking regulator is rolling back two emergency programs introduced at the beginning of the pandemic, including a crucial measure that made it easier for banks to offer loan payment deferrals to clients.

US Real Estate Sales Have Been Booming Since The Pandemic. Over Half Regret Buying
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
American real estate buyers are regretting the decision to jump into the market during a pandemic. LendEdu, a US rate comparison site, surveyed homeowners that bought after March. The survey found a significant number of happy homeowners, taking advantage of record low rates. However, the majority of buyers have regrets about pulling the trigger on their new home purchase.
Home-building industry pushes for renovation tax credit to dampen impact of COVID-19
( G&M - Merideth Wilson-Smith)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dampen economic activity across Canada, building supply and home builders’ organizations are advocating for a potential solution: home renovation tax credits. Member associations of the Building Materials Council of Canada, each representing different regions of the country, have been lobbying the federal and some provincial governments to instate a home renovation tax credit similar to the 2009 tax credit implemented by the Harper government.

Bank Of Canada’s Worst Case Scenario Is Here, Except For A 40% Drop In House Prices
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Risk Management Issues
In the BoC’s adverse scenario outlined in 2019, Canada’s GDP took a large hit, unemployment spiked, and house prices tanked. The scenario sees Canada’s GDP dropping 8.2%, unemployment peaking at 12.6%, and house prices dropping 40.9%. They also assume a duration of 7 consecutive quarters. This scenario is much worse than any other previous scenarios Canada has seen. In fact, they’re testing for what seemed like a near doomsday scenario.
It’s tempting to lock in a fixed-rate mortgage right now, but make sure you know the trade-offs
( G&M - Craig Wong)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

As fixed-rate mortgage rate offerings tumble, those with variable loans thinking about switching over and locking in need to consider more than just the rate, experts say.

Toronto home prices soar to record highs in August
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Risk Management Issues

Toronto’s housing market hit new record highs in August, with sales and prices spiking, as low mortgage rates fuelled competition for homes despite economic uncertainty brought on by the novel coronavirus pandemic.

Canadian Households Have Begun Deleveraging Loans Secured By Real Estate
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
The total of loans secured by residential real estate is slipping from all-time highs. The total outstanding balance is $304.95 billion in June, down 0.27% from the month before. The drop works out to a 0.90% decline from the same month last year. June marks the third consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest 12-month growth since 2016. Breaking this down, personal loans are where the majority of the weakness is.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Rip Higher, As Inventory In The City Keeps Piling Up
( G&M - Kaitlin Last)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
The price of a home in Greater Toronto is up significantly, especially the suburbs. The benchmark price across TRREB reached $890,400 in August, up 11.09% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto benchmark is now $971,800, up 9.34% from last year. Since TRREB is growing faster than the City, this means home prices in the 905 are moving even faster.
Covid-19 altering Canadians’ housing needs: RBC
(Investment Executive - James Langton)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

“But the bigger story might be that Covid-19 is now prompting more people to sell,” the report said, noting that new listings surged in urban centres such as Toronto, Ottawa and Vancouver.

VersaBank Adds Simply Group Financial As Point-Of-Sale Partner With Initial Financing Of $72 Million
(VersaBank - Press Release)  - Competitive Issues
VersaBank (“VersaBank” or the “Bank”) (TSX: VB) today announced that it has partnered with Simply Group Financial Corp. (“Simply Group Financial”) for its Point-of-Sale Financing business. Simply Group Financial is a subsidiary of Simply Green Home Services Inc., parent corporation of the “Simply Group”, one of Canada’s fastest growing home energy solution, home improvement and consumer lending businesses. As partners, VersaBank will provide Simply Financial with financing to facilitate ongoing loan origination utilizing VersaBank’s proprietary software solution. In their first transaction, VersaBank has initially provided Simply Group Financial with a financing facility of $72 million.
Canada’s Big Six Banks Report Over 500,000 Mortgages On Payment Deferral
(Better Dwelling - Better Dwelling)  - Risk Management Issues
Canadian banks are starting to see mortgage payment deferrals expire, and households resume payments. Canada’s Big Six banks reported Q3 earnings last week, which ended on July 31, 2020. Mortgages on payment deferrals have dropped by nearly a fifth in the latest quarter. While that doesn’t tell us how many people actually needed the deferral, it does bring the market closer to finding how many do.
Rental demand takes another hit as many students stay home
( G&M - Matt Lundy)  - Attitude and Preference Issues

Rental housing markets across Canada are seeing weaker demand this fall as some postsecondary students pivot to online learning and stay in their hometowns, resulting in a spate of empty bedrooms and mounting losses for landlords.

New home construction picked up the pace in August as builders started up again Social Sharing
( CBC - ANITA BALAKRISHNAN)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Builders broke ground on more new homes in August amid a surge in construction on apartments, condos and other types of multiple-unit housing projects in urban centres.
Fortress to pay $250,000 to settle with Ontario mortgage regulator
( G&M - Mark Rendell)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues

Fortress Real Developments Inc. has agreed to pay $250,000 for violating Ontario mortgage rules in the first direct penalty against the troubled construction finance company.

Concerns about taxes on homes may be warranted
( G&M - Tim Cestnick)  - Public Policy Issues

If you’ve been following the news lately, it will come as no surprise that there have been numerous writers raising the possibility of a tax on the principal residences of Canadians. It seems to have started with a report that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has provided a $250,000 grant to researchers at the University of British Columbia, where the focus is on housing wealth and inequality, according to the CMHC. The project is considered the first one sponsored by the Crown corporation as part of the Liberal government’s National Housing Strategy.

Canadian mortgage debt growth climbs to 3-year high in May as payments deferred
( G&M - Reuters)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Canadian mortgage debt rose in May at the fastest annual rate in three years, boosted by a jump in property sales and record levels of mortgage payment deferrals due to the coronavirus pandemic, data from the national housing agency showed.

Mortgage delinquencies expected to jump in latter part of the year, CMHC says
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Risk Management Issues
As of July 31, banks had provided mortgage deferrals of up to six months to more than 775,000 homeowners. That represents about 16 per cent of the banks' residential mortgage portfolios, up from 10 per cent in April, according to their industry group, the Canadian Bankers Association.
Housing starts hit 13-year high, rising 7 per cent in August, CMHC data show
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
National housing starts rose 7 per cent in August compared with July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 262,396, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. That was the highest level since September, 2007, and another month that bucked the agency’s forecast for a precipitous drop this year.
Are mortgage deferrals key to sustaining Canada’s financial stability through the pandemic? The Bank of Canada thinks so
( G&M - DAVID PARKINSON)  - Public Policy Issues

As the Bank of Canada fretted over bloated household debts for the better part of the past decade, its biggest fear was that stretched-to-the-limit mortgage holders would collapse under the weight of the next major economic shock.

The ‘supply crisis’ in Canada’s housing market isn’t backed up by the evidence
( G&M - Josh Gordon)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

If you follow the housing debates in Toronto and Vancouver, you’ll have undoubtedly heard the claim that the affordability challenges facing both cities are the result of supply problems. Common complaints include a lack of new housing, burdensome regulation and flawed zoning.

New Home Construction in Canada Hits Its Highest Since 2007
( Bloomberg - Theophilos Argitis)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Housing starts surged to 262,396 units in August on an annualized basis, up 6.9% from an already elevated 245,425 units a month earlier, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Wednesday in Ottawa. The highest monthly total since September 2007 was powered by new construction in Toronto and Vancouver, particularly multiple units like condos.

Canadian homes sales jumped in August, prices continue to climb
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Competitive Issues

Canadian home sales and prices hit record highs in August, as low borrowing costs and an easing of pandemic restrictions continued to fuel housing demand.

Average Canadian house price soared 18% in past year, CREA says
( CBC - Pete Evans)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Canada's housing market continued its improbable run in August, as average prices jumped by almost 20 per cent from where they were a year earlier, and the number of homes sold shattered the monthly record.
Canadian Immigration Resumes Big Declines, As Permanent Resident Numbers Plummet
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Permanent residents arriving in Canada are back to making steep declines. There were 13,645 permanent residents admitted in July, down 60.29% from the same month a year before. Year-to-date the country has seen 220,500 people admitted, down 38.25% compared to the same period last year. June showed improvements in the trend, but those rolled back in the latest numbers.
Canadian Seniors Have Racked Up Over $4.3 Billion In Reverse Mortgage Debt
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Canadian seniors are hammering away at their home equity at a very fast pace. Reverse mortgage debt reached $4.30 billion in July, up 0.62% from the month before. This represents an increase of 13.63% when compared to the same month last year. Yes, that’s huge growth and a new record all-time high. 
Rents in Canada’s two most expensive cities are dropping at record rates
(FP - Pamela Heaven)  - Competitive Issues
With immigration stalled during the COVID-19 pandemic, rental markets in some of Canada’s biggest and most expensive cities have seen record declines.
Equitable Bank Completes $200 Million Deposit Note Issue
(Equitable - Press Release)  - Competitive Issues
The Deposit Note was priced at 150 basis points over comparable term Government of Canada bonds, and will carry a coupon of 1.774%.  The bond was supported by a broad investor base expressing record interest in the purchase of Equitable Bank deposit notes.  The Deposit Note ranks equally and ratably with all present and future unsecured and unsubordinated liabilities of the Bank.  It is not eligible for Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation insurance.
New home prices see biggest monthly jump in 3 years as lumber prices soar
( CBC - CBC)  - Competitive Issues
The data agency says homebuilders expect the record high lumber prices this year will most likely add an extra $5,000 to $10,000 to the cost of a single family house.
Canada’s Largest Real Estate Markets See Permanent Resident Declines Accelerate
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
The number of permanent residents admitted to Toronto is seeing declines become larger. There were 4,450 permanent residents admitted in July, down 64.0% from the same month last year. Year-to-date there were 69,825 people admitted, down 40.82% compared to the same period last year. July’s decline is almost 50% larger than June, so the declines are getting much larger. The year-to-date rate of decline is also smaller, confirming July’s acceleration. The drops aren’t getting better, they’re getting worse. 
Housing Agency Stands by Forecast for Sharp Price Drop in Canada
( Bloomberg - Shelly Hagan)  - Risk Management Issues

Canada’s federal housing agency is sticking to its pessimistic forecast for the future of the country’s housing market, citing “tremendous” risks from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. forecast in May that average prices would fall between 9% and 18% from pre-pandemic levels before beginning to recover in the first half of 2021. Chief Economist Bob Dugan reiterated that forecast, though he cautioned that it’s difficult to predict the “peaks and troughs” and there are many moving parts.
“When I say I stand by our forecasts, it’s really with respect to what are the broad trends we expect moving forward,” Dugan said Monday on a conference call with reporters. “When I look at the housing market there are a tremendous number of risks.”
Canada’s housing market has not only defied expectations of a slowdown, it’s booming, even as the economy suffers from the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Demand for homes combined with tight inventory levels and historically low interest rates are driving gains.
Nearly Half Of Canadian Real Estate Markets Have “Moderate” Vulnerability
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Risk Management Issues
Canadian real estate has a moderate level of vulnerability. There are now 7 major markets displaying a moderate level of vulnerability. This is up from 5 during the February report. New markets to join these ranks are Moncton, Halifax, and Ottawa. The only market to see the rating lower back to a “low” degree of vulnerability is Regina.
Moody’s Doubles Down On Forecast Of Canadian Real Estate Prices Falling Soon
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
Moody’s previous forecast didn’t expect the market to show signs of weakness until Q3, and they’re doubling down. The report’s economist expects stimulus, mortgage deferrals, and interest rates to contain damage until Q3. They expect by Q3, the optimism of those programs will begin to wear thin. The reality of how meaningful the improvements are, should be apparent by then. The optimism should then fade. It’s at this point they believe prices can no longer defy employment, vacancy, and delinquency rates.
Canadian Condo Prices Peaked In April, Only Three Major Markets Now At Peak
(Daniel Wong)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
The price of a typical condo apartment across Canada, peaked right after the pandemic broke out. The aggregate benchmark reached $478,700 in August, up 6.45% from last year. This number is down about $700, or 0.15%, from the all-time record high reached in April 2020. As you might expect, not everywhere moved in the same direction. Three markets were able to push condo prices to a new all-time high.
Destruction of value in US real estate revealed
(FT - Joe Rennison)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Commercial properties hit by the economic effects of coronavirus could have lost as much as one-quarter of their value or more, laying bare the scale of the damage being wrought across American malls, hotels and other commercial buildings.
Optimism About Canadian Housing Market Climbs Even Amid 2nd Wave
( Bloomberg - Shelly Hagan)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
The residential real estate market has been a bright spot in Canada’s economic recovery from Covid-19. Last month, home prices and sales reached a record from pent-up demand combined with low interest rates and tight inventory. Although the market has defied expectations, economists predict the gains will peter out in line with other data that shows a slow down in activity as cases rise and restrictions get re-imposed.
Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Finally Falls To Pre-Pandemic Levels
(Better Dwelling - Daniel Wong)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Canadian mortgage debt is slowing in growth, after a surge at the beginning of the pandemic. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows outstanding mortgage credit reached a new high in August. At the beginning of the pandemic, the rate of growth had accelerated due to payment deferrals. Deferrals are beginning to expire now, sending growth back down to pre-pandemic levels.
America’s Next Housing Crisis: How The Pandemic Is Pushing Renters To The Brink
(Forbes - Sam Chandan)  - Risk Management Issues
For millions of America’s renting families, threats to housing security are a persistent fact of life, even at the best of times for the broader economy. A significant unplanned expense or a temporary interruption to employment can mean the difference between a rent payment made and a payment missed. The relative health of the labor market proves crucial in maintaining a measure of housing stability in the United States.
What Will The Pandemic’s Impact Be On The Real Estate Market?
(Forbes - Keneth Rapoza)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
The pandemic has already caused a mini-exodus out of New York City, and with lower taxes, lower interest rates, and — for the wealthiest among us — higher earnings thanks to stock market gains and some helpful bailouts, the housing market is roaring outside of urban America.
Former SoFi CEO Cagney Sells Biggest Heloc-Backed Bond in Decade
( Bloomberg - Adam Tempkin)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Mike Cagney’s blockchain lending startup Figure Technologies has provided collateral for the biggest bond backed by home equity lines of credit since the American housing collapse over a decade ago.

US banks signal mounting concern over real estate lending
(FT - Robert Armstrong)  - Risk Management Issues
US banks are increasingly worried about being repaid on loans secured against commercial property, as offices, malls and hotels continue to stand empty.
One of Finance’s Few Black CEOs Thrives Where Big Banks Fled
( Bloomberg - Jeff Green and Peter Robison)  - Governance

Darrin Williams thinks it was probably a Fox News interview he did in early April that caught the eye of the White House and got him invited later that month to a videoconference with President Trump, his daughter Ivanka, and other top advisers. The pandemic was raging, and Trump had convened a lineup of financial luminaries to discuss how to save the economy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin took notes as Brian Moynihan, chief executive officer of Bank of America Corp., and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon opened the conversation. Then came Williams, who runs Southern Bancorp Inc. in Little Rock.

A Neighborhood’s Race Affects Home Values More Now Than in 1980
( Bloomberg - Brentin Mock)  - Industry Conduct and Practices Issues
In other words, if  an appraiser is calculating  the value of a home in a Black neighborhood by comparing it to houses recently sold around it, then chances are she is comparing it to other Black-owned houses that, because of the legacy of segregation, have handicapped values in the market compared to similar homes in white communities appraised at higher prices. 
Britain’s mysteriously robust housing market
(FT - Editorial Board)  - Competitive Issues
While Britain’s economy shrank by a fifth during the second quarter of 2020, house prices were about 1.7 per cent higher than a year before in July, according to the Nationwide Building Society. Official data is not yet out but transactions also appear to be on the rise: a closely watched survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed new instructions from sellers and inquiries from buyers were up sharply during July. 
China Can't Afford to Let Property Crash
( Bloomberg - Nisha Gopalan)  - Risk Management Issues
As China’s economy picks up after the pandemic, the last thing you might expect is a renewed credit squeeze in the real estate industry. So the imposition of leverage thresholds for developers has come as a surprise, weighing on shares of highly indebted companies from China Evergrande Group to Greenland Holdings Corp. The concerns may be overstated.